Midlo Snow Maker Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Gfs nailed this 2 weeks ago.... Unreal gfs sniffs it out in long range, euro dials it in, in median range while the gfs loses it only to find it back in short range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Wow! That is really walking the line there. RA/SN mix that switches to predominantly snow in heavier bursts of precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 gfs sniffs it out in long range, euro dials it in, in median range while the gfs loses it only to find it back in short range Blind squirrel and nut and all, but that's actually quite impressive by the GFS, even if it ends up with little to no snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 12z UKIE at 48. 1000-500 mb thickness are the colors... h5 vort is the white lines (vort is E KY/NE TN) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Yoda rarely has good news, so I'm shocked here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Yoda rarely has good news, so I'm shocked here. I try Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 12z GFS ensemble mean on the Raleigh maps look good IMHO 24 hr total precip -- http://raleighwx.ame...emblep24060.gif http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12060.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Gfs nailed this 2 weeks ago.... Unreal Don't know about its precip amounts, but to a large extent this is true. Reminds me of the tropical system that came up the east coast earlier. It wasn't spot on with the track, but I swear it had that storm for what seemed like a month before it happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 gfs sniffs it out in long range, euro dials it in, in median range while the gfs loses it only to find it back in short range thats sick Mildo..it even had the right day and track and everything. And people laugh when i post the 384 gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 thats sick Mildo..it even had the right day and track and everything. And people laugh when i post the 384 gfs It's cute when you think that one 384h hit justifies you posting all the ones that don't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Wow...12z GFS went WAY cold for Sunday morning lows. Maybe it's "seeing" it's own forecast snowcover on our area? But has temps in the 20s Sunday morning for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 It's cute when you think that one 384h hit justifies you posting all the ones that don't Did he actually post that one? or was that his one miss at posting a 300 plus hour gfs snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Wow...12z GFS went WAY cold for Sunday morning lows. Maybe it's "seeing" it's own forecast snowcover on our area? But has temps in the 20s Sunday morning for most of us. 21 at Martinsburg Sunday morning. But that wouldn't even be a record for the date (18 in 1996) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Could be a few mangled flakes mixed in with the rain. I can't believe folks are buying into this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 GFS soundings for BWI show that any transition from rain to snow would be between 18 and 21z (probably closer to 21z). 18z sounding is above freezing from about 880mb and below (although not by much and even has one small subfreezing layer near 950mb). 21z sounding is essentially about freezing down to around 975mb...that would be a snow sounding, maybe mixed with drizzle if the precip is light. Obviously precip is shutting off at this time as well. Lots of good UVVs at 18z, so hope for dynamical cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Could be a few mangled flakes mixed in with the rain. I can't believe folks are buying into this. This. For no other reason in that it always take a near perfect culmination of positive factors for us to get a snow event in the best of conditions in the middle of winter. And we know what can happen with that also. So Philly is getting 8" of snow Saturday?....I don't think so. I'm rooting to see some flakes, however, but not counting on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 12z GEFS plumes for BWI. Some members are all rain, but most show some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 21 at Martinsburg Sunday morning. But that wouldn't even be a record for the date (18 in 1996) What is the earliest sub 20 reading on record for you out there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Could be a few mangled flakes mixed in with the rain. I can't believe folks are buying into this. Still going to need some help outside elevation tho hard to say the trend is not toward some sort of flakeage perhaps most spots. I do think that people get overfocused on a track and "explosiveness" without actually examining the atmosphere. We can get a heavy cold rain at 39. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Wow...12z GFS went WAY cold for Sunday morning lows. Maybe it's "seeing" it's own forecast snowcover on our area? But has temps in the 20s Sunday morning for most of us. Nice! Our 6" will stick around for a while. Sledding on Sunday. Jokes aside, it's nice to see a setup like this regardless of time of year. This is one of the few ways to get a snowmaker in the MA during a Nina. I know it's aways off but the ao and nao are forcasted to drop into decent neg territory at the end of the first week of Nov. We could be in for some frosty mornings coming up soon. The NAO has been pretty much neutral since the middle of august. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 What is the earliest sub 20 reading on record for you out there? 19 degrees on 10/20/1972. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Wow...12z GFS went WAY cold for Sunday morning lows. Maybe it's "seeing" it's own forecast snowcover on our area? But has temps in the 20s Sunday morning for most of us. I think 28 is the coldest min for October for DC if I remember correctly. That would be impressive if we got into the 20. Hope Monday moderates some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 euro is warm at 850..barely below zero Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 SAT 06Z 29-OCT 4.3 -2.3 1020 96 100 0.15 560 543 SAT 12Z 29-OCT 2.1 -0.2 1017 99 100 0.42 556 543 SAT 18Z 29-OCT 2.0 -2.2 1014 99 99 0.59 547 536 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 SAT 06Z 29-OCT 4.3 -2.3 1020 96 100 0.15 560 543 SAT 12Z 29-OCT 2.1 -0.2 1017 99 100 0.42 556 543 SAT 18Z 29-OCT 2.0 -2.2 1014 99 99 0.59 547 536 These values are almost exactly what 12Z GFS shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I am guessing this is hr 60... I am trying to do hr 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Boy talk about agreement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I am guessing this is hr 60... I am trying to do hr 48 If that is the euro, 51 hrs or 54 hrs would be better. At 48 hrs, the 850 looks about the same as the GFS 850 temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 UKIE at 48 -- http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ukmet/12zukmet850mbTSLPp06048.gif Temps in the 30s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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