usedtobe Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 It's cute when you think that one 384h hit justifies you posting all the ones that don't Did he actually post that one? or was that his one miss at posting a 300 plus hour gfs snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Wow...12z GFS went WAY cold for Sunday morning lows. Maybe it's "seeing" it's own forecast snowcover on our area? But has temps in the 20s Sunday morning for most of us. 21 at Martinsburg Sunday morning. But that wouldn't even be a record for the date (18 in 1996) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Could be a few mangled flakes mixed in with the rain. I can't believe folks are buying into this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 GFS soundings for BWI show that any transition from rain to snow would be between 18 and 21z (probably closer to 21z). 18z sounding is above freezing from about 880mb and below (although not by much and even has one small subfreezing layer near 950mb). 21z sounding is essentially about freezing down to around 975mb...that would be a snow sounding, maybe mixed with drizzle if the precip is light. Obviously precip is shutting off at this time as well. Lots of good UVVs at 18z, so hope for dynamical cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Could be a few mangled flakes mixed in with the rain. I can't believe folks are buying into this. This. For no other reason in that it always take a near perfect culmination of positive factors for us to get a snow event in the best of conditions in the middle of winter. And we know what can happen with that also. So Philly is getting 8" of snow Saturday?....I don't think so. I'm rooting to see some flakes, however, but not counting on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 12z GEFS plumes for BWI. Some members are all rain, but most show some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 21 at Martinsburg Sunday morning. But that wouldn't even be a record for the date (18 in 1996) What is the earliest sub 20 reading on record for you out there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Could be a few mangled flakes mixed in with the rain. I can't believe folks are buying into this. Still going to need some help outside elevation tho hard to say the trend is not toward some sort of flakeage perhaps most spots. I do think that people get overfocused on a track and "explosiveness" without actually examining the atmosphere. We can get a heavy cold rain at 39. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Wow...12z GFS went WAY cold for Sunday morning lows. Maybe it's "seeing" it's own forecast snowcover on our area? But has temps in the 20s Sunday morning for most of us. Nice! Our 6" will stick around for a while. Sledding on Sunday. Jokes aside, it's nice to see a setup like this regardless of time of year. This is one of the few ways to get a snowmaker in the MA during a Nina. I know it's aways off but the ao and nao are forcasted to drop into decent neg territory at the end of the first week of Nov. We could be in for some frosty mornings coming up soon. The NAO has been pretty much neutral since the middle of august. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 What is the earliest sub 20 reading on record for you out there? 19 degrees on 10/20/1972. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Wow...12z GFS went WAY cold for Sunday morning lows. Maybe it's "seeing" it's own forecast snowcover on our area? But has temps in the 20s Sunday morning for most of us. I think 28 is the coldest min for October for DC if I remember correctly. That would be impressive if we got into the 20. Hope Monday moderates some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 euro is warm at 850..barely below zero Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 SAT 06Z 29-OCT 4.3 -2.3 1020 96 100 0.15 560 543 SAT 12Z 29-OCT 2.1 -0.2 1017 99 100 0.42 556 543 SAT 18Z 29-OCT 2.0 -2.2 1014 99 99 0.59 547 536 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 SAT 06Z 29-OCT 4.3 -2.3 1020 96 100 0.15 560 543 SAT 12Z 29-OCT 2.1 -0.2 1017 99 100 0.42 556 543 SAT 18Z 29-OCT 2.0 -2.2 1014 99 99 0.59 547 536 These values are almost exactly what 12Z GFS shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I am guessing this is hr 60... I am trying to do hr 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Boy talk about agreement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I am guessing this is hr 60... I am trying to do hr 48 If that is the euro, 51 hrs or 54 hrs would be better. At 48 hrs, the 850 looks about the same as the GFS 850 temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 UKIE at 48 -- http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ukmet/12zukmet850mbTSLPp06048.gif Temps in the 30s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 If that is the euro, 51 hrs or 54 hrs would be better. At 48 hrs, the 850 looks about the same as the GFS 850 temps. Okies... Midlo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Wunderground Euro weenie snow maps are out and are very fun to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Too bad this isn't 3 weeks later.... That's what I mentioned to Jason. If it were we'd be in for pretty good snow as the vort track, surface, 850 are really nice looking. It's just the time of year and the low level temps that mess things up. Too bad there is the lag between the sun and the cooling of the atmosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 This is ridiculous all around... what an unbelievable set of runs for late october.. my brain says no and so does my heart.. seems too good to be true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Looking at the ECMWF-- it matches the GFS in my area in southern VA, h85 low forms JUST to my south and we sit on the "warm" side of 0c for much of the even. Need that to nudge E 100 miles or so. Not likely-- and hope the other factors such as BL temps work out. I think it's a big event from the NRV NE along the Blue Ridge-- NW corner of my county is 3k feet-- they will do great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Wunderground Euro weenie snow maps are out and are very fun to look at. dropped me down to 4"+ from 7"+ on the 0Z run still unbelievable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Euro is also very cold for Sunday. Lows in the upper 20s for many of us. Highs on Sunday don't get out of the 30s in colder spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Wunderground Euro weenie snow maps are out and are very fun to look at. Indeed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 To think I am pulling an all-night snow vigil in October is unreal! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 yes....you have an interesting column for later.....I wonder if/where there will be accumulation.....the sun angle is the same as about February 14th.....I think it would have to be heavy snow to stick on the warm streets...but it should stick to decks, grass, etc, if heavy enough and 34 or lower i would imagine It needs to get in the mid 30s....maybe even 35 would do it. The sun isn't the problem its that in October there is way less cold air around to tap than Feb. Intensity matters alot. The sounding had areas where the temp and dewpoint followed the moist adiabat which if you got enough lifting might argue for getting convection. They didn't however show an unstable layer that I could find around our area but it wouldn't take too much change to the thermal structure to get one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Is anyone above 800-1000'?....elevation will probably matter a lot I am, but I'm also west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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