TalcottWx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 best case scenario...stronger system, well established deformation band...snow mixing in/changing over to with heavier rates...rain to snow back to rain as it lifts out...this storms reminds me of being back in the south and battling the boundary layer temps. It requires something almost perfect.. Which would cause one to naturally throw out a red flag.. But at least it is not being portrayed six days out.. What is time (EST) timeframe for possible snowfall at Towson for this? We play Delaware at home @7 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 We do need the deformation zone and for the precipitation to be at least moderate for most of us. I note that the not so good NAM has the surface temp at 9C or so on Saturday with its more eastern and weaker track. It would also help to have the heavier rates set in before sunrise... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 It would also help to have the heavier rates set in before sunrise... It would but even early in the morning would work. The sun is a late meteorological winter sun. There just isn't much cold around because of the time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 on a completely unrelated note: at least we're not hurricanejosh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlYourWxPal Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Not too excited myself either. Definitely need higher precip rates as stated in order to cool the surface layer down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I know the synoptic set-up is quite different, but could this storm resemble (as far as outcome is concerned) the late February 2008 storm where rain was predicted and we ended up with about 3-5 inches area wide and a WSW as the snow tapered off? Even still that was late Feb not late Oct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 It would but even early in the morning would work. The sun is a late meteorological winter sun. There just isn't much cold around because of the time of year. That's an important note too. This is a super marginal airmass. There is no really cold air to draw on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 That's an important note too. This is a super marginal airmass. There is no really cold air to draw on. It's all dynamics....it will either be enough or not...nothing is going to trend colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 on a completely unrelated note: at least we're not hurricanejosh I hope he brought sunscreen... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 so much for the nw caribb always winning in oct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 It's all dynamics....it will either be enough or not...nothing is going to trend colder. i have oct 2005 dancing in my head as a "big" scenario around here -- sitting in endicott ny on a ridge overlooking the river valley. deform band overhead all day with mod/hvy snow that didnt stick. i went up to BGM airport and there was about 5" of snow on the ground. went down toward the river and it flipped to all rain by about 500' and never changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 But DT will be right. I'm torn. I view it as a win win either way - If the Euro ends up mostly correct, Ian is wrong. If the Euro goes bonkers and we get cold rain with no snow, then DT was wrong. Too bad I cannot troll DT anymore. Sorry Ian, better hope you are right, otherwise you will probably ban me from you FB/Twitter too. My initial thoughts were almost exactly the same as Wes'. I don't really have new thoughts yet but obviously it looks a bit better. I've also seen plenty of early season elevation events in several places so I remain rather skeptical. I see nothing wrong with remaining nuetral as of now, but I have tweets from you earlier this week claiming victory. So, you can bet you will be trolled with that come Saturday if I see some snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 i have oct 2005 dancing in my head as a "big" scenario around here -- sitting in endicott ny on a ridge overlooking the river valley. deform band overhead all day with mod/hvy snow that didnt stick. i went up to BGM airport and there was about 5" of snow on the ground. went down toward the river and it flipped to all rain by about 500' and never changed. not a bad comparison of what might transpire... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I view it as a win win either way - If the Euro ends up mostly correct, Ian is wrong. If the Euro goes bonkers and we get cold rain with no snow, then DT was wrong. Too bad I cannot troll DT anymore. Sorry Ian, better hope you are right, otherwise you will probably ban me from you FB/Twitter too. I see nothing wrong with remaining nuetral as of now, but I have tweets from you earlier this week claiming victory. So, you can bet you will be trolled with that come Saturday if I see some snow you and ji were exchanging tweets about me and dt. i made one short reply that i'd be victorious. im not dumb enough to think that 5 days out i knew all the answers. honestly.. dt might not have a bad call here. he never called for snow accum around here. those who never forecast and just troll get annoying sometimes even if they're buds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Did anyone mention JB's forecast...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 we need it to bomb, which it does on the Euro and Ukie; it's that simple once the American models show the same bomb as those 2, we will have a model consensus I know, but it all seems too unrealistic for us. We can't even get stuff to go right in our prime snow season down here. Oh, and check ya email. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Did anyone mention JB's forecast...? actually, I was wondering what he was saying since he left Accuwx, he's become a bit "yesterday" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Did anyone mention JB's forecast...? yep and Worse tree destruction than Irene for DC!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 actually, I was wondering what he was saying since he left Accuwx, he's become a bit "yesterday" jb is calling for 6-12" from ric to bangor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 jb is calling for 6-12" from ric to bangor Really? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 actually, I was wondering what he was saying since he left Accuwx, he's become a bit "yesterday" People posted it in the other subforums...3-6" 75mi on either side of a line from north-central MD to Boston, lolli's to 10", Irene-like tree damage and gusts to near 60mph at NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 People posted it in the other subforums...3-6" 75mi on either side of a line from north-central MD to Boston, lolli's to 10", Irene-like tree damage and gusts to near 60mph at NYC. no wonder he was fired and plays in the minors now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 The 12z GFS will be the biggest run of our lives Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 you and ji were exchanging tweets about me and dt. i made one short reply that i'd be victorious. im not dumb enough to think that 5 days out i knew all the answers. honestly.. dt might not have a bad call here. he never called for snow accum around here. those who never forecast and just troll get annoying sometimes even if they're buds. I'll be nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 jb is calling for 6-12" from ric to bangor he suddenly became "today"!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 People posted it in the other subforums...3-6" 75mi on either side of a line from north-central MD to Boston, lolli's to 10", Irene-like tree damage and gusts to near 60mph at NYC. Wait, seriously? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 no wonder he was fired and plays in the minors now Oh but IF he is right, weather bell will be famous. He knows that will not happen he just does it for the shock value to get publicity for his new site, and to get people to pay 16 dollars a month to read his crazy thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 no wonder he was fired and plays in the minors now did he really get fired? I'm sure he's doing fine as his rep will still have him on the list of forecasters to at least consider (at least with some media and energy people) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I view it as a win win either way - If the Euro ends up mostly correct, Ian is wrong. If the Euro goes bonkers and we get cold rain with no snow, then DT was wrong. Too bad I cannot troll DT anymore. Sorry Ian, better hope you are right, otherwise you will probably ban me from you FB/Twitter too. I see nothing wrong with remaining nuetral as of now, but I have tweets from you earlier this week claiming victory. So, you can bet you will be trolled with that come Saturday if I see some snow Like you deleted me Katie? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 People posted it in the other subforums...3-6" 75mi on either side of a line from north-central MD to Boston, lolli's to 10", Irene-like tree damage and gusts to near 60mph at NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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