mappy Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 All I know is if I see accumulation, a dusting or even just big wet snow flakes... Ian was wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 we probably also need deform. id be skeptical of a late switch to snow with light/mod rain prior. how often do we flip to snow here? Jan 26th? and look how that turned out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 All I know is if I see accumulation, a dusting or even just big wet snow flakes... Ian was wrong. But DT will be right. I'm torn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 But DT will be right. I'm torn. Not really...he's been on the rain-only train the whole time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 we probably also need deform. id be skeptical of a late switch to snow with light/mod rain prior. how often do we flip to snow here? Its going to have to be something with a bit of punch.. maybe some instability aloft or something like seen in some of the SNE skew t's for today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Not really...he's been on the rain-only train the whole time. It was more about him hugging the euro the whole time when the gfs was too progressive earlier this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 It was more about him hugging the euro the whole time when the gfs was too progressive earlier this week. he sure is predictable..haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 All I know is if I see accumulation, a dusting or even just big wet snow flakes... Ian was wrong. My initial thoughts were almost exactly the same as Wes'. I don't really have new thoughts yet but obviously it looks a bit better. I've also seen plenty of early season elevation events in several places so I remain rather skeptical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Its going to have to be something with a bit of punch.. maybe some instability aloft or something like seen in some of the SNE skew t's for today. best case scenario...stronger system, well established deformation band...snow mixing in/changing over to with heavier rates...rain to snow back to rain as it lifts out...this storms reminds me of being back in the south and battling the boundary layer temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 we probably also need deform. id be skeptical of a late switch to snow with light/mod rain prior. how often do we flip to snow here? We do need the deformation zone and for the precipitation to be at least moderate for most of us. I note that the not so good NAM has the surface temp at 9C or so on Saturday with its more eastern and weaker track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 But DT will be right. I'm torn. He's due for a win, more power to him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 best case scenario...stronger system, well established deformation band...snow mixing in/changing over to with heavier rates...rain to snow back to rain as it lifts out...this storms reminds me of being back in the south and battling the boundary layer temps. It requires something almost perfect.. Which would cause one to naturally throw out a red flag.. But at least it is not being portrayed six days out.. What is time (EST) timeframe for possible snowfall at Towson for this? We play Delaware at home @7 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 We do need the deformation zone and for the precipitation to be at least moderate for most of us. I note that the not so good NAM has the surface temp at 9C or so on Saturday with its more eastern and weaker track. It would also help to have the heavier rates set in before sunrise... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 It would also help to have the heavier rates set in before sunrise... It would but even early in the morning would work. The sun is a late meteorological winter sun. There just isn't much cold around because of the time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 on a completely unrelated note: at least we're not hurricanejosh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlYourWxPal Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Not too excited myself either. Definitely need higher precip rates as stated in order to cool the surface layer down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I know the synoptic set-up is quite different, but could this storm resemble (as far as outcome is concerned) the late February 2008 storm where rain was predicted and we ended up with about 3-5 inches area wide and a WSW as the snow tapered off? Even still that was late Feb not late Oct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 It would but even early in the morning would work. The sun is a late meteorological winter sun. There just isn't much cold around because of the time of year. That's an important note too. This is a super marginal airmass. There is no really cold air to draw on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 That's an important note too. This is a super marginal airmass. There is no really cold air to draw on. It's all dynamics....it will either be enough or not...nothing is going to trend colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 on a completely unrelated note: at least we're not hurricanejosh I hope he brought sunscreen... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 so much for the nw caribb always winning in oct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 It's all dynamics....it will either be enough or not...nothing is going to trend colder. i have oct 2005 dancing in my head as a "big" scenario around here -- sitting in endicott ny on a ridge overlooking the river valley. deform band overhead all day with mod/hvy snow that didnt stick. i went up to BGM airport and there was about 5" of snow on the ground. went down toward the river and it flipped to all rain by about 500' and never changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 But DT will be right. I'm torn. I view it as a win win either way - If the Euro ends up mostly correct, Ian is wrong. If the Euro goes bonkers and we get cold rain with no snow, then DT was wrong. Too bad I cannot troll DT anymore. Sorry Ian, better hope you are right, otherwise you will probably ban me from you FB/Twitter too. My initial thoughts were almost exactly the same as Wes'. I don't really have new thoughts yet but obviously it looks a bit better. I've also seen plenty of early season elevation events in several places so I remain rather skeptical. I see nothing wrong with remaining nuetral as of now, but I have tweets from you earlier this week claiming victory. So, you can bet you will be trolled with that come Saturday if I see some snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 i have oct 2005 dancing in my head as a "big" scenario around here -- sitting in endicott ny on a ridge overlooking the river valley. deform band overhead all day with mod/hvy snow that didnt stick. i went up to BGM airport and there was about 5" of snow on the ground. went down toward the river and it flipped to all rain by about 500' and never changed. not a bad comparison of what might transpire... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I view it as a win win either way - If the Euro ends up mostly correct, Ian is wrong. If the Euro goes bonkers and we get cold rain with no snow, then DT was wrong. Too bad I cannot troll DT anymore. Sorry Ian, better hope you are right, otherwise you will probably ban me from you FB/Twitter too. I see nothing wrong with remaining nuetral as of now, but I have tweets from you earlier this week claiming victory. So, you can bet you will be trolled with that come Saturday if I see some snow you and ji were exchanging tweets about me and dt. i made one short reply that i'd be victorious. im not dumb enough to think that 5 days out i knew all the answers. honestly.. dt might not have a bad call here. he never called for snow accum around here. those who never forecast and just troll get annoying sometimes even if they're buds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Did anyone mention JB's forecast...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 we need it to bomb, which it does on the Euro and Ukie; it's that simple once the American models show the same bomb as those 2, we will have a model consensus I know, but it all seems too unrealistic for us. We can't even get stuff to go right in our prime snow season down here. Oh, and check ya email. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Did anyone mention JB's forecast...? actually, I was wondering what he was saying since he left Accuwx, he's become a bit "yesterday" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Did anyone mention JB's forecast...? yep and Worse tree destruction than Irene for DC!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 actually, I was wondering what he was saying since he left Accuwx, he's become a bit "yesterday" jb is calling for 6-12" from ric to bangor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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