showmethesnow Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Starting from 12z. Temps are 925mb. Green is 850-500mb RH. Black are 500mb height lines. Red line is 1000-850mb critical thickness. Is that the same time stamp on all four of those maps? If so it looks as if the Euro is quicker with moving the low through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 One of the mid atlantic's most respected mets is saying some models are looking better for snow prospects a couple posts back.. But... you suggest runs should simply be completely disregarded because it would be anomalous... Give it a chance.. It's not impossible for it to snow this time of year in the MID ATLANTIC.. but it is very improbable... In elevation it's probably more common than some might think. Plus it's really almost November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 Some of us have lives and need to sleep/work during certain hours. A rain/snow mix with some accumulation possible outside of the main cities is not something that requires 24/7 attention. yes..in december...but in october...we are talking about a historic event. Dont sleep through it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 In elevation it's probably more common than some might think. Plus it's really almost November. Dec 5 of 2009 killed me. sub 200 ft elevations did nothing with that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Well the 1000-850 thickness line is a guidance. We are in late October so some really special set of circumstances needs to come together to get snow. But, I could see a mix or brief flip..esp above 500'. I looked at the soundings and think even the 06Z GFS would argue for a possible flip towards the end as the warm layer isn't that deep or warm on the soundings. Still very marginal but the vort track looks a lot better than yesterday with the vort going to the south enough to put dc and Baltimore in the deformation zone. This time of year, that's probably the only way to have a chance at snow. Were you the one who posted that some of the euro members were even more amped than the operational? Is that true? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 yes..in december...but in october...we are talking about a historic event. Dont sleep through it is it historic if it is only flurries? (why does this argument seem oddly familiar?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Dec 5 of 2009 killed me. sub 200 ft elevations did nothing with that storm. i may just go down with the ship here if i have to. i never said it could not snow in elevation. im not sure i count wet snow that doest stick as snow anyway. plus i think we often get tricked in this range. though i did forget the storm is on saturday and they tend to line up with my forecast day for some reason... jan 2011/irene/etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 yes..in december...but in october...we are talking about a historic event. Dont sleep through it So wouldn't I want to save my energy for when the storm is actually occurring vs. 2-3 days out trying to nit-pick every small model change from run to run? It doesn't take that many words to say "Models have trended W, colder, with snow a bit more likely." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I looked at the soundings and think even the 06Z GFS would argue for a possible flip towards the end as the warm layer isn't that deep or warm on the soundings. Still very marginal but the vort track looks a lot better than yesterday with the vort going to the south enough to put dc and Baltimore in the deformation zone. This time of year, that's probably the only way to have a chance at snow. Were you the one who posted that some of the euro members were even more amped than the operational? Is that true? Seems like the GFS has been playing catch up every run with this. If the vort does get S of DC then, like you say, the chances of flakes get much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 If I see a single snowflake fall from this (which is about the most I expect, if even that) I consider it a win. Just because its Baltimore and its only October. I'm not optimistic about this winter at all, but... even if it is just a cold rain, I think this storm could possibly be a good sign of things to come? I remember the mid-October 2009 Nor'easter where we had 4 record minimum highs in a row at BWI with lots of cold rain- the writing was on the wall for the 09/10 winter there (in my opinion). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 i may just go down with the ship here if i have to. i never said it could not snow in elevation. im not sure i count wet snow that doest stick as snow anyway. plus i think we often get tricked in this range. though i did forget the storm is on saturday and they tend to line up with my forecast day for some reason... jan 2011/irene/etc. it won't matter what really falls in DC because DCA will report nothing more than a trace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 is it historic if it is only flurries? (why does this argument seem oddly familiar?) with a potential for over a inch of qpf..it wont be flurries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 it won't matter what really falls in DC because DCA will report nothing more than a trace im just thinking of the many times where i was bearish only to become bullish in this range and then have the storm end up as i originally thought. i probably think about it too much. oh well. i hope you get 2' of crippling snow and can't post for a month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 i may just go down with the ship here if i have to. i never said it could not snow in elevation. im not sure i count wet snow that doest stick as snow anyway. plus i think we often get tricked in this range. though i did forget the storm is on saturday and they tend to line up with my forecast day for some reason... jan 2011/irene/etc. It's hard to get amped for something that is neat to see on a map but seemingly unlikely to occur for all those various reasons we are used to. You may be able to get a few pics of leaf filled trees and some snowflakes if it does happen. Those are rare combos. And the quake happened on a weekday so that completely destroys your theory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 i may just go down with the ship here if i have to. i never said it could not snow in elevation. im not sure i count wet snow that doest stick as snow anyway. plus i think we often get tricked in this range. though i did forget the storm is on saturday and they tend to line up with my forecast day for some reason... jan 2011/irene/etc. lol wet snow isnt snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 If I see a single snowflake fall from this (which is about the most I expect, if even that) I consider it a win. Just because its Baltimore and its only October. I'm not optimistic about this winter at all, but... even if it is just a cold rain, I think this storm could possibly be a good sign of things to come? I remember the mid-October 2009 Nor'easter where we had 4 record minimum highs in a row at BWI with lots of cold rain- the writing was on the wall for the 09/10 winter there (in my opinion). verbatim Euro snow maps off Wunderground, it has yby around 4" and mine a little over 7" this is just the kind of system that will have those kinds of lopsided totals I recall riding home from school a couple times and Linthicum had measurable snow and Glen Burnie had nothing in marginal events like this would be, if you go from Dorsey Rd. and Aviation Blvd. north on Aviation, you can often see how it transitions to more snow on the ground once you pass the 7-11 otoh, a drive on Rt. 100 from Mt. Road out to Howard County you would see a huge difference in something like this one going from about 50' to 500' good luck bro', I hope GB gets 4"+ from it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I looked at the soundings and think even the 06Z GFS would argue for a possible flip towards the end as the warm layer isn't that deep or warm on the soundings. Still very marginal but the vort track looks a lot better than yesterday with the vort going to the south enough to put dc and Baltimore in the deformation zone. This time of year, that's probably the only way to have a chance at snow. Were you the one who posted that some of the euro members were even more amped than the operational? Is that true? There were a few members that looked a little more amped up based on the 850temp spaghetti plots, but I didn't see a large spread or anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Is that the same time stamp on all four of those maps? If so it looks as if the Euro is quicker with moving the low through. It's from 12z through 21z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 im just thinking of the many times where i was bearish only to become bullish in this range and then have the storm end up as i originally thought. i probably think about it too much. oh well. i hope you get 2' of crippling snow and can't post for a month. nah, I know some places I could walk to even w/2' of wet snow on the ground to torment you post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Eh...I'm interested, but not excited. Like Will said, the Ensembles show a hit...potentially even bigger than the OP. That IS a red flag. But with at least one of the American models on board, I'm still skeptical. I think chances of us seeing a quick flip to some snow has increased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 verbatim Euro snow maps off Wunderground, it has yby around 4" and mine a little over 7"this is just the kind of system that will have those kinds of lopsided totals I recall riding home from school a couple times and Linthicum had measurable snow and Glen Burnie had nothing in marginal events like this would be, if you go from Dorsey Rd. and Aviation Blvd. north on Aviation, you can often see how it transitions to more snow on the ground once you pass the 7-11 otoh, a drive on Rt. 100 from Mt. Road out to Howard County you would see a huge difference in something like this one going from about 50' to 500' good luck bro', I hope GB gets 4"+ from it You gonna keep humping those maps as being 100% accurate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 lol wet snow isnt snow? White rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Eh...I'm interested, but not excited. Like Will said, the Ensembles show a hit...potentially even bigger than the OP. That IS a red flag. But with at least one of the American models on board, I'm still skeptical. I think chances of us seeing a quick flip to some snow has increased. we need it to bomb, which it does on the Euro and Ukie; it's that simple once the American models show the same bomb as those 2, we will have a model consensus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Eh...I'm interested, but not excited. Like Will said, the Ensembles show a hit...potentially even bigger than the OP. That IS a red flag. But with at least one of the American models on board, I'm still skeptical. I think chances of us seeing a quick flip to some snow has increased. It looks that way but for how long? Not that there is any reason to think the ground will get white but an hour or 2 of flakes falling would be cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 You gonna keep humping those maps as being 100% accurate? I'm not humping, I said verbatim and my earlier posts said "if" they are correct anyway, aren't you? half the fun is getting there "Clark" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Just seems like a matter of properly calibrated expectations. For my part, if there are flakes in the air at any point at my house, it is a win - whether anything sticks or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 It's encouraging to see the gfs move towards the euro. It's always a game of inches though. The vort has to pretty much do exactly what the euro shows to give us snow and I don't think anybody thinks that the euro is a lock. small shift = big change in outcome. We are getting pretty darn close timewise and if the 0z gfs gets more amped up and further south then i guess our odds are increasing. Maybe 50/50? Skyline is too far south and west it seems. Maybe sugarloaf or catoctin mts? If it's going to snow in October I'm going to take some time hike in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 we need it to bomb, which it does on the Euro and Ukie; it's that simple once the American models show the same bomb as those 2, we will have a model consensus we probably also need deform. id be skeptical of a late switch to snow with light/mod rain prior. how often do we flip to snow here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 on a completely unrelated note: at least we're not hurricanejosh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 we probably also need deform. id be skeptical of a late switch to snow with light/mod rain prior. how often do we flip to snow here? It did happen a lot last winter, more than most years I can recall, at least out this way. Then again, it happened during the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.