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the October snowstorm Ian Disaster its going to be a long winter thread


Ji

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Just change the title of the thread to a general discussion of that particular weather system, won't that take care of those issues? And then subsequent model discussion could be added rather than each getting their own thread...

As for me, I am leaving work at noon to go buy milk and bread to beat the rush.

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relax Ian. The thread isnt hurting anyone. Its the first time this year that a model has shown snow for us...thats worthy of some discussion. I dont see any terrible posting. Nobody is forecasting a snowstorm. If the best model in the world shows a snowstorm 6 days out...why not discuss it. after all, it is a weather forum:)

this is the second time where have you been?

I just saw the maps...im fully on board...beautiful track(wes would even like the track).even the thicknesses support snow. What a way to start off the winter. We might be at normal snow by the time october ends

:lmao:

this type of storm almost never hits us well.. not to mention it's october. no reason not to discuss at all somewhere it but if ji starts spitting out multiple model threads and stuff.. well that might be an issue.

agreed, i'm sure he will change the title to something catchy :arrowhead:

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The weenies in the NE forum are in mid-season form with regard to discussing model runs of this threat. I would say this thread a paragon of restraint compared to that.

most of us still realize climo wins every time. if I have to give Ji props on this thread it is for at least not making it over a 300hr map

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most of us still realize climo wins every time. if I have to give Ji props on this thread it is for at least not making it over a 300hr map

Also this is not the first model run that has shown some snow for us next weekend. Occasional runs of the GFS and Euro have shown this for the last week-ish. That doesn't make it more likely to happen, just pointing out that this run and Ji's thread aren't just picking up on a complete fluke.

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this type of storm almost never hits us well.. not to mention it's october. no reason not to discuss at all somewhere it but if ji starts spitting out multiple model threads and stuff.. well that might be an issue.

No arguments here. I just took some time to look at everything. I doubt its even going to rain. A couple wet flake would be fun just to remind us how close we are to Dec 1st though.

I personally would like to see seasonal weather through Nov. It's way too early to get a persistent ec trough and cold pattern. I've been in MD since 72 (except for 92-99) and I know all too well how it goes. It is extremely rare to have a full 12 weeks of winter. Late 70's was the last time we really froze and the bay froze entirely.

It's rare to get more than 8 weeks of normal or below normal temps. It always makes me nervous when waste a good pattern before Dec 1st.

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To be fair, it really was a matter of Ian admonishing the rest of us for having some fun.

Party pooper.

im just worried about the winter... last winter was pretty awful with people biting on d5+ solutions that never happened. some of you are too sensitive. you should expend that energy in learning meteorology.

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But you agree he's a party pooper, right?

No, not a party pooper. Just pessimistic.

He has always been this way, at least for as long as I've been posting here. Meh's severe weather, doesn't really get on board with threats (snow or severe) very often.

Plus, how can one be a party pooper, when a system is 5 days out, in Late October.

Again, Ian is just keeping it real.

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the 108h-126h timeframe is interesting

how often do we get a massive shortwave digging hard from minnesota to phase in time or correctly? the models were horrendous with nina last winter. with an active and dominant northern stream right now we're likely to have similar problems going forward.

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