usedtobe Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 The models certainly are looking better for snow, especially the Euro which really bombs out the low but even the 06Z GFS looks lik eit would give some snow especially to the northern Suburbs and Baltimore if taken verbatim. It's freezing level drops enough even the district might see flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 Probably because you were talking about the Mid-Atlantic in a New England thread. Multiple times. New Englanders would receive the same treatment if someone came into our region and started complaining about Boston. our thread was dead overnight but the new england board is active 24/7. Thats where the action was baby. Maybe if you stay up 24/7 like Will...i wouldnt have to post there:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Probably because you were talking about the Mid-Atlantic in a New England thread. Multiple times. New Englanders would receive the same treatment if someone came into our region and started complaining about Boston. But they don't have anything to complain about. We do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 The models certainly are looking better for snow, especially the Euro which really bombs out the low but even the 06Z GFS looks lik eit would give some snow especially to the northern Suburbs and Baltimore if taken verbatim. It's freezing level drops enough even the district might see flakes. Music to my ears - I know the Euro snowfall was well over done. Even if nothing sticks, I would be perfectly happy with just seeing flakes fall. I'm going to assume timing is early Saturday before it warms up and it is all rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 The models certainly are looking better for snow, especially the Euro which really bombs out the low but even the 06Z GFS looks lik eit would give some snow especially to the northern Suburbs and Baltimore if taken verbatim. It's freezing level drops enough even the district might see flakes. I'm looking at the maps on the euro and it looked like DC could flip at the end, but you go n&w to areas like Leesburg and it looked like a changeover could happen for maybe a few hours anyways. after 18z. They are in a good deformation area and the 925mb temps were near -1C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I'm looking at the maps on the euro and it looked like DC could flip at the end, but you go n&w to areas like Leesburg and it looked like a changeover could happen for maybe a few hours anyways. after 18z. They are in a good deformation area and the 925mb temps were near -1C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I don't buy the accumulations yet but if it snows hard enough it will. Saying its not going to snow is a little bit close minded I have realized (just from looking at the current system looking to drop a couple inches on SNE). That UK frame certainly appears to be a CCB to me. It would no doubt be a freak occurrence but it appears we are in a pattern featuring abnormal cold storms for October. Last year in Maine it did not snow to any significance at my prep school until at least December. Looking at the EURO, it is the ultimate type of needle thread. But if it wraps up like that run, it can happen. I think its too early to dismiss the storm in this pattern. You are in the MA now and not New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Starting from 12z. Temps are 925mb. Green is 850-500mb RH. Black are 500mb height lines. Red line is 1000-850mb critical thickness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 The 500mb on the GFS Mean is looking a lot better for dc and north. It drops the trough just south of DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Nobody but me from the region has posted tonight. That's telling in so many ways;( But the destruction of Ian is fun to watch lol.. Now I know how DT felt with you. I didn't say there would be no storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Starting from 12z. Temps are 925mb. Green is 850-500mb RH. Black are 500mb height lines. Red line is 1000-850mb critical thickness. 15-18z has Leesburg solidly inside the red lines with plenty of green Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 You are in the MA now and not New England. One of the mid atlantic's most respected mets is saying some models are looking better for snow prospects a couple posts back.. But... you suggest runs should simply be completely disregarded because it would be anomalous... Give it a chance.. It's not impossible for it to snow this time of year in the MID ATLANTIC.. but it is very improbable... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I'm looking at the maps on the euro and it looked like DC could flip at the end, but you go n&w to areas like Leesburg and it looked like a changeover could happen for maybe a few hours anyways. after 18z. They are in a good deformation area and the 925mb temps were near -1C I wonder why the Euro clown maps on undergorund show so much snow given what you are showing. I only see the underground map or other free sites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 fluffies in the sky vs. accumulations are different conversations....I hope people know that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I wonder why the Euro clown maps on undergorund show so much snow given what you are showing. I only see the underground map or other free sites. Will and I commented on how they look very weenie-ish. Maybe they are just run on a simple algorithm for snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 15-18z has Leesburg solidly inside the red lines with plenty of green Well the 1000-850 thickness line is a guidance. We are in late October so some really special set of circumstances needs to come together to get snow. But, I could see a mix or brief flip..esp above 500'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Will and I commented on how they look very weenie-ish. Maybe they are just run on a simple algorithm for snow? Too bad there is nothing published on the algorithm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 our thread was dead overnight but the new england board is active 24/7. Thats where the action was baby. Maybe if you stay up 24/7 like Will...i wouldnt have to post there:) Some of us have lives and need to sleep/work during certain hours. A rain/snow mix with some accumulation possible outside of the main cities is not something that requires 24/7 attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 i just want to see flakes...i dont care about accumulation right now. Its october..but seeing heavy snow fall would be really cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Starting from 12z. Temps are 925mb. Green is 850-500mb RH. Black are 500mb height lines. Red line is 1000-850mb critical thickness. Is that the same time stamp on all four of those maps? If so it looks as if the Euro is quicker with moving the low through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 One of the mid atlantic's most respected mets is saying some models are looking better for snow prospects a couple posts back.. But... you suggest runs should simply be completely disregarded because it would be anomalous... Give it a chance.. It's not impossible for it to snow this time of year in the MID ATLANTIC.. but it is very improbable... In elevation it's probably more common than some might think. Plus it's really almost November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 Some of us have lives and need to sleep/work during certain hours. A rain/snow mix with some accumulation possible outside of the main cities is not something that requires 24/7 attention. yes..in december...but in october...we are talking about a historic event. Dont sleep through it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 In elevation it's probably more common than some might think. Plus it's really almost November. Dec 5 of 2009 killed me. sub 200 ft elevations did nothing with that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Well the 1000-850 thickness line is a guidance. We are in late October so some really special set of circumstances needs to come together to get snow. But, I could see a mix or brief flip..esp above 500'. I looked at the soundings and think even the 06Z GFS would argue for a possible flip towards the end as the warm layer isn't that deep or warm on the soundings. Still very marginal but the vort track looks a lot better than yesterday with the vort going to the south enough to put dc and Baltimore in the deformation zone. This time of year, that's probably the only way to have a chance at snow. Were you the one who posted that some of the euro members were even more amped than the operational? Is that true? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 yes..in december...but in october...we are talking about a historic event. Dont sleep through it is it historic if it is only flurries? (why does this argument seem oddly familiar?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Dec 5 of 2009 killed me. sub 200 ft elevations did nothing with that storm. i may just go down with the ship here if i have to. i never said it could not snow in elevation. im not sure i count wet snow that doest stick as snow anyway. plus i think we often get tricked in this range. though i did forget the storm is on saturday and they tend to line up with my forecast day for some reason... jan 2011/irene/etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 yes..in december...but in october...we are talking about a historic event. Dont sleep through it So wouldn't I want to save my energy for when the storm is actually occurring vs. 2-3 days out trying to nit-pick every small model change from run to run? It doesn't take that many words to say "Models have trended W, colder, with snow a bit more likely." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I looked at the soundings and think even the 06Z GFS would argue for a possible flip towards the end as the warm layer isn't that deep or warm on the soundings. Still very marginal but the vort track looks a lot better than yesterday with the vort going to the south enough to put dc and Baltimore in the deformation zone. This time of year, that's probably the only way to have a chance at snow. Were you the one who posted that some of the euro members were even more amped than the operational? Is that true? Seems like the GFS has been playing catch up every run with this. If the vort does get S of DC then, like you say, the chances of flakes get much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 If I see a single snowflake fall from this (which is about the most I expect, if even that) I consider it a win. Just because its Baltimore and its only October. I'm not optimistic about this winter at all, but... even if it is just a cold rain, I think this storm could possibly be a good sign of things to come? I remember the mid-October 2009 Nor'easter where we had 4 record minimum highs in a row at BWI with lots of cold rain- the writing was on the wall for the 09/10 winter there (in my opinion). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 i may just go down with the ship here if i have to. i never said it could not snow in elevation. im not sure i count wet snow that doest stick as snow anyway. plus i think we often get tricked in this range. though i did forget the storm is on saturday and they tend to line up with my forecast day for some reason... jan 2011/irene/etc. it won't matter what really falls in DC because DCA will report nothing more than a trace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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