ORH_wxman Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Euro ensembles are a big hit...they even look slightly more bullish than the OP run...at only 60-66 hours out, that is a huge red flag IMHO if forecasting this to whiff wide right. Either they will score a big coup here, or they will have a spectacular failure. But its hard to bet against them at this time range regardless of what the NAM is doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 I don't see how we don't get snow Saturday even if it melts on contact . Why am I pulling an all nighter in October Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I don't see how we don't get snow Saturday even if it melts on contact . Why am I pulling an all nighter in October Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 Nobody but me from the region has posted tonight. That's telling in so many ways;( But the destruction of Ian is fun to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Nobody but me from the region has posted tonight. That's telling in so many ways;( But the destruction of Ian is fun to watch I've been monitoring... timing is getting better (onset is earlier on Saturday now, before the sun comes up) and the latest model runs are strongly hinting at some snow in the air. Upper 30s Saturday morning, with both the GFS and Euro keeping temps in the 30s throughout the day. 0C cross-over starts out around 900mb but drops to around 925mb by the early afternoon on the GFS... that would suggest that some snow reaches the ground since it usually takes around 100mb in the low/mid levels to completely melt the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 Is sun that much of a factor in late oct? It's pretty weak now right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Nobody but me from the region has posted tonight. That's telling in so many ways;( But the destruction of Ian is fun to watch I am certainly watching it, but don't have anything quality to add and didn't want to mess up some of the discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Nobody but me from the region has posted tonight. That's telling in so many ways;( But the destruction of Ian is fun to watch so are victory dances 66-72 hrs before the event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 both the GFS and Euro keeping temps in the 30s throughout the day. ...longest consecutive hours below 40 degrees F. in October at DCA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Is sun that much of a factor in late oct? It's pretty weak now right? Still having DST is gonna kill our snow accums Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 man, I did a close up with the Wunderground Euro snow map and I'm at 7"+ while the suburbs west of Baltimore, around 5 miles to my west/nw as the crow flies, 9-10" unfookin' believable for any time of the year you go E QBO, you just go girl! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 man, I did a close up with the Wunderground Euro snow map and I'm at 7"+ while the suburbs west of Baltimore, around 5 miles to my west/nw as the crow flies, 9-10" unfookin' believable for any time of the year you go E QBO, you just go girl! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 d@mn right, and proud of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 d@mn right, and proud of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 man, I did a close up with the Wunderground Euro snow map and I'm at 7"+ while the suburbs west of Baltimore, around 5 miles to my west/nw as the crow flies, 9-10" unfookin' believable for any time of the year you go E QBO, you just go girl! You can probably stop attributing this to the E QBO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 You can probably stop attributing this to the E QBO. until someone can unequivocally prove otherwise, I'll ride that horse all the way into the ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-charlotte/winter-forecast-2011-2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 until someone can unequivocally prove otherwise, I'll ride that horse all the way into the ground Right now we've got MJO in phase 2 and -AO shifting to positive contributing to the synoptic setup. QBO is not the end-all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Right now we've got MJO in phase 2 and -AO shifting to positive contributing to the synoptic setup. the Euro is forecasting an historic snow storm for us in 66 hrs. that's not a given, however, IF it happens, your explanation does not exclude the E QBO I stick with my original thread on the matter look at all the historic winters on that list; you or anyone else can call it a coincidence if you want, but I believe otherwise (whether this storm happens or not) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Those euro snow maps sure are fun to look at....much like the clown maps we always pull out during the winter....those things aren't reality but like I said they sure are fun to look at!! Here's to a few fluffies falling from the sky on Saturday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 the Euro is forecasting an historic snow storm for us in 66 hrs. that's not a given, however, IF it happens, your explanation does not exclude the E QBO I stick with my original thread on the matter http://www.americanw...post__p__902249 look at all the historic winters on that list; you or anyone else can call it a coincidence if you want, but I believe otherwise (whether this storm happens or not) E QBO is a part, but like I said, it's not the end-all. You can't contribute EVERY storm we get to it. You're just harping on it because it seems to be the buzz-worthy teleconnection this season. I'm done with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 E QBO is a part, but like I said, it's not the end-all. You can't contribute EVERY storm we get to it. You're just harping on it because it seems to be the buzz-worthy teleconnection this season. I'm done with you. it's unfortunate that you always seem to leave in a huff when someone disagrees with you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 IF the Euro is correct, you won't be seeing those smaller pumpkins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 Gfs is decent but it's catching up. As usual jma has led the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 HOLY EURO BATMAN! 4-8" ON SATURDAY, IN OCTOBER?!!!!!!!!!! WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 ....just needed to get that out of my system.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 ....just needed to get that out of my system.... Breathing steadily into a brown paper bag would have accomplished the same sense of relief Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 HOLY EURO BATMAN! 4-8" ON SATURDAY, IN OCTOBER?!!!!!!!!!! WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOT Please don't jump off the bridge when you see some cold rain on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Breathing steadily into a brown paper bag would have accomplished the same sense of relief Please don't jump off the bridge when you see some cold rain on Saturday. Oh come on... I'm not that big of a weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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