Ian Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 fwiw (perhaps not much still) the nam sucked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 The Weather Channel joined the mini bandwagon. http://www.weather.com/weather/5-day/USDC0001 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 fwiw (perhaps not much still) the nam sucked Vortmax needs to get about 150 miles south...if the southern vort can hold together (it pretty much diffused out on the NAM), then that would def help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Vortmax needs to get about 150 miles south...if the southern vort can hold together (it pretty much diffused out on the NAM), then that would def help. i guess it's actually marginally better than 18z (had not looked). i think the euro overplayed the southern energy and how much the northern vort dug, but it seems we may be on the verge of heading toward consensus of something just not the big euro something. i would not be surprised to see the nam bend back west a bit at least on slp track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 i guess it's actually marginally better than 18z (had not looked). i think the euro overplayed the southern energy and how much the northern vort dug, but it seems we may be on the verge of heading toward consensus of something just not the big euro something.i would not be surprised to see the nam bend back west a bit at least. I do think this will end up closer than most models had it...but unlikely the Euro solution from yesterday. So in the end, it probably will be just a cold rain...maybe light rain if its more of a scraper. If it can get far enough west even with steady light precip, some of the elevated areas might see some flakes in interior N MD...those type of spots. That southern energy was definitely a big key on the big Euro solutions. Getting a phase with the northern vortmax to drag it all south and more amplified. Models do perform worse in the warmer season than compared to dead of winter, so I suppose we could see slightly larger errors in this time frame than we normally would. In the end, its likely to be a tease. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I do think this will end up closer than most models had it...but unlikely the Euro solution from yesterday. So in the end, it probably will be just a cold rain...maybe light rain if its more of a scraper. If it can get far enough west even with steady light precip, some of the elevated areas might see some flakes in interior N MD...those type of spots. That southern energy was definitely a big key on the big Euro solutions. Getting a phase with the northern vortmax to drag it all south and more amplified. Models do perform worse in the warmer season than compared to dead of winter, so I suppose we could see slightly larger errors in this time frame than we normally would. In the end, its likely to be a tease. yeah makes sense. question: is that a true southern stream wave or is it "ejecta' from the northern stream? it seems like it can initially be traced back to the pac nw if not further north. dt was all over that thing being why everything sucked compared to the euro but it never looked that amazing on most models except for those few runs of the euro. does the euro still have an issue with southern energy ? (I guess this never really bowling balled in the sw but it was pretty intense on the big euro output). the idea of it washing out and a dominant northern jet "screwing" us isnt that crazy for some reason, perhaps just memories from last yr. of course it is october.. but people yell at you for forecasting with climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 yeah makes sense. question: is that a true southern stream wave or is it "ejecta' from the northern stream? it seems like it can initially be traced back to the pac nw if not further north. dt was all over that thing being why everything sucked compared to the euro but it never looked that amazing on most models except for those few runs of the euro. does the euro still have an issue with southern energy ? (I guess this never really bowling balled in the sw but it was pretty intense on the big euro output). the idea of it washing out and a dominant northern jet "screwing" us isnt that crazy for some reason, perhaps just memories from last yr. of course it is october.. but people yell at you for forecasting with climo. Well its originally from the northern stream, you are correct...but I'm careful to make a distinction when calling something "southern stream" versus "STJ"...when the PJ splits, you can have two streams...northern and southern, but its definitely not a subtropical jet. I think that sometimes creates confusion because the STJ is also called southern stream and sometimes people erroneously refer to a split southern portion of the PJ as the STJ. I guess "southern stream" is more generic term that may or may not include the STJ...in this case (and most of the time in La Ninas) is usually means a split portion of the polar jet. In a year like '09-'10, the southern stream was almost always from the STJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Well its originally from the northern stream, you are correct...but I'm careful to make a distinction when calling something "southern stream" versus "STJ"...when the PJ splits, you can have two streams...northern and southern, but its definitely not a subtropical jet. I think that sometimes creates confusion because the STJ is also called southern stream and sometimes people erroneously refer to a split southern portion of the PJ as the STJ. I guess "southern stream" is more generic term that may or may not include the STJ...in this case (and most of the time in La Ninas) is usually means a split portion of the polar jet. In a year like '09-'10, the southern stream was almost always from the STJ. Makes sense. I'm not a n00b, trust me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Makes sense. I'm not a n00b, trust me. Oh I know...some of it was just for people reading, especially since I often see the error of confusing a generic term like southern stream to the STJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Oh I know...some of it was just for people reading, especially since I often see the error of confusing a generic term like southern stream to the STJ. That was in jest tho I was probably connecting the subtropical jet and southern stream to some degree. I know what the former is of course. Some of the rest is map memorization and looking at past events. But given how much it seperates etc makes total sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 That was in jest tho I was probably connecting the subtropical jet and southern stream to some degree. I know what the former is of course. Some of the rest is map memorization and looking at past events. But given how much it seperates etc makes total sense. Yeah...its one of the reasons why DC wants a STJ...because otherwise they are relying on a split flow which is harder to get. If the PJ isn't split, DC can still cash in because the STJ will bring good disturbances south of them. Otherwise its hope for a split flow, or hope the PJ digs so far south that the vortmax goes underneath....but usually it doesn't and the dreaded Miller Bs and SWFEs happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Yeah...its one of the reasons why DC wants a STJ...because otherwise they are relying on a split flow which is harder to get. If the PJ isn't split, DC can still cash in because the STJ will bring good disturbances south of them. Otherwise its hope for a split flow, or hope the PJ digs so far south that the vortmax goes underneath....but usually it doesn't and the dreaded Miller Bs and SWFEs happen. A split flow is more likely in a weak as opposed to strong Nina? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalfy Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 0z 500 pattern MUCH better compared to 18z. Looks like it will be an excellent run for those of us who want to see it show an increased possibility for flakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalfy Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 0z 500 pattern MUCH better compared to 18z. Looks like it will be an excellent run for those of us who want to see it show an increased possibility for flakes yep it looks like the ideal scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 A split flow is more likely in a weak as opposed to strong Nina? Yeah theoretically since the PJ will be a tad weaker...the gradient is stronger in a more potent Nina. Obviously other factors can override that, but all else equal...yes, the weaker Nina is better for disturbing the PJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 0z 500 pattern MUCH better compared to 18z. Looks like it will be an excellent run for those of us who want to see it show an increased possibility for flakes still doesnt look that great tho it does bring moisture back a bit more. looks a hair warmer on the maps... marginal situation, some losing either way it goes unless it's perfect. looks better for the elevated areas to the west simply since there's more precip, model could be missing a band setting up nw of the vort too i suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 The GFS is about 50 miles south with the vortmax compared to the NAM at 66 hours...that is certainly better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 The GFS is about 50 miles south with the vortmax compared to the NAM at 66 hours...that is certainly better. comparing to the nam is kind of useless at this range even if the nam sometimes scores one from here. the vortmax passes from sw va up to around here -- not superb.. pretty similar to previous runs tho the surface low is certainly stronger and more moisture is around. if i were trixie or vortmax i might be a bit more interested now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalfy Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 comparing to the nam is kind of useless at this range even if the nam sometimes scores one from here. the vortmax passes from sw va up to around here -- not superb.. pretty similar to previous runs tho the surface low is certainly stronger and more moisture is around. if i were trixie or vortmax i might be a bit more interested now. Well Im not speaking of accumulating snow, just simply a temporary transition to either rain/snow mix or all snow which in itself is a feat for october. The setup is certainly conducive to such all the way down and east to at least dc.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Well Im not speaking of accumulating snow, just simply a temporary transition to either rain/snow mix or all snow which in itself is a feat for october. The setup is certainly conducive to such all the way down and east to at least dc.. unless there's some big deform band that rotates through i would not bet on it. looks like light to occasionally moderate cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 comparing to the nam is kind of useless at this range even if the nam sometimes scores one from here. the vortmax passes from sw va up to around here -- not superb.. pretty similar to previous runs tho the surface low is certainly stronger and more moisture is around. if i were trixie or vortmax i might be a bit more interested now. Yeah the NAM is still outside its wheelhouse, but I like to compare the trends...both models have been trending deeper. If you can get that vortmax down around RIC or ORF. A NAM vortmax track sucks...GFS still not great, but def better. Both going a bit deeper. This could gain some interest for the Mt. Vortmax area and those hills. Blue Ridge might be too far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Norlun troff forming on the GFS. The precip is generally progressive but slows over the del marva for a little extra time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Yeah the NAM is still outside its wheelhouse, but I like to compare the trends...both models have been trending deeper. If you can get that vortmax down around RIC or ORF. A NAM vortmax track sucks...GFS still not great, but def better. Both going a bit deeper. This could gain some interest for the Mt. Vortmax area and those hills. Blue Ridge might be too far west. Psuhoffman might be woken from his slumber. Or we can pay for a special Marcus deck cam appearance. Elevation is almost always super critical early. I think many underestimate those last few thousand feet of melting power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Psuhoffman might be woken from his slumber. Or we can pay for a special Marcus deck cam appearance. Elevation is almost always super critical early. I think many underestimate those last few thousand feet of melting power. Agreed...even in the dead of winter. Ukie is getting more amped for the weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Lolz.......00Z Euro clown snowfall maps (courtesy of Wunderground) show 3-6 inches of snow for DC/BWI and surrounding burbs. This may be our biggest snow of the entire season. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 00z euro major snowstorm for October anyway. Over inch qpf and 33 degreees at 2pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 DT destroy Ian? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 DT destroy Ian? If this storm comes close to the coast as a huge bomb, then kudos to DT...he has loved this setup from the get-go. It does look like a good classic winter KU setup when you widen the view, but the southern vortmax needs to be involved...otherwise it won't amplify enough in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 If euro is correct then what a waste to have this in October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 Euro 1.35 qpf iAd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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