Ian Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Yeah...its one of the reasons why DC wants a STJ...because otherwise they are relying on a split flow which is harder to get. If the PJ isn't split, DC can still cash in because the STJ will bring good disturbances south of them. Otherwise its hope for a split flow, or hope the PJ digs so far south that the vortmax goes underneath....but usually it doesn't and the dreaded Miller Bs and SWFEs happen. A split flow is more likely in a weak as opposed to strong Nina? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalfy Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 0z 500 pattern MUCH better compared to 18z. Looks like it will be an excellent run for those of us who want to see it show an increased possibility for flakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalfy Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 0z 500 pattern MUCH better compared to 18z. Looks like it will be an excellent run for those of us who want to see it show an increased possibility for flakes yep it looks like the ideal scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 A split flow is more likely in a weak as opposed to strong Nina? Yeah theoretically since the PJ will be a tad weaker...the gradient is stronger in a more potent Nina. Obviously other factors can override that, but all else equal...yes, the weaker Nina is better for disturbing the PJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 0z 500 pattern MUCH better compared to 18z. Looks like it will be an excellent run for those of us who want to see it show an increased possibility for flakes still doesnt look that great tho it does bring moisture back a bit more. looks a hair warmer on the maps... marginal situation, some losing either way it goes unless it's perfect. looks better for the elevated areas to the west simply since there's more precip, model could be missing a band setting up nw of the vort too i suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 The GFS is about 50 miles south with the vortmax compared to the NAM at 66 hours...that is certainly better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 The GFS is about 50 miles south with the vortmax compared to the NAM at 66 hours...that is certainly better. comparing to the nam is kind of useless at this range even if the nam sometimes scores one from here. the vortmax passes from sw va up to around here -- not superb.. pretty similar to previous runs tho the surface low is certainly stronger and more moisture is around. if i were trixie or vortmax i might be a bit more interested now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalfy Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 comparing to the nam is kind of useless at this range even if the nam sometimes scores one from here. the vortmax passes from sw va up to around here -- not superb.. pretty similar to previous runs tho the surface low is certainly stronger and more moisture is around. if i were trixie or vortmax i might be a bit more interested now. Well Im not speaking of accumulating snow, just simply a temporary transition to either rain/snow mix or all snow which in itself is a feat for october. The setup is certainly conducive to such all the way down and east to at least dc.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Well Im not speaking of accumulating snow, just simply a temporary transition to either rain/snow mix or all snow which in itself is a feat for october. The setup is certainly conducive to such all the way down and east to at least dc.. unless there's some big deform band that rotates through i would not bet on it. looks like light to occasionally moderate cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 comparing to the nam is kind of useless at this range even if the nam sometimes scores one from here. the vortmax passes from sw va up to around here -- not superb.. pretty similar to previous runs tho the surface low is certainly stronger and more moisture is around. if i were trixie or vortmax i might be a bit more interested now. Yeah the NAM is still outside its wheelhouse, but I like to compare the trends...both models have been trending deeper. If you can get that vortmax down around RIC or ORF. A NAM vortmax track sucks...GFS still not great, but def better. Both going a bit deeper. This could gain some interest for the Mt. Vortmax area and those hills. Blue Ridge might be too far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Norlun troff forming on the GFS. The precip is generally progressive but slows over the del marva for a little extra time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Yeah the NAM is still outside its wheelhouse, but I like to compare the trends...both models have been trending deeper. If you can get that vortmax down around RIC or ORF. A NAM vortmax track sucks...GFS still not great, but def better. Both going a bit deeper. This could gain some interest for the Mt. Vortmax area and those hills. Blue Ridge might be too far west. Psuhoffman might be woken from his slumber. Or we can pay for a special Marcus deck cam appearance. Elevation is almost always super critical early. I think many underestimate those last few thousand feet of melting power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Psuhoffman might be woken from his slumber. Or we can pay for a special Marcus deck cam appearance. Elevation is almost always super critical early. I think many underestimate those last few thousand feet of melting power. Agreed...even in the dead of winter. Ukie is getting more amped for the weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Lolz.......00Z Euro clown snowfall maps (courtesy of Wunderground) show 3-6 inches of snow for DC/BWI and surrounding burbs. This may be our biggest snow of the entire season. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 00z euro major snowstorm for October anyway. Over inch qpf and 33 degreees at 2pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 DT destroy Ian? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 DT destroy Ian? If this storm comes close to the coast as a huge bomb, then kudos to DT...he has loved this setup from the get-go. It does look like a good classic winter KU setup when you widen the view, but the southern vortmax needs to be involved...otherwise it won't amplify enough in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 If euro is correct then what a waste to have this in October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 Euro 1.35 qpf iAd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Euro ensembles are a big hit...they even look slightly more bullish than the OP run...at only 60-66 hours out, that is a huge red flag IMHO if forecasting this to whiff wide right. Either they will score a big coup here, or they will have a spectacular failure. But its hard to bet against them at this time range regardless of what the NAM is doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 I don't see how we don't get snow Saturday even if it melts on contact . Why am I pulling an all nighter in October Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I don't see how we don't get snow Saturday even if it melts on contact . Why am I pulling an all nighter in October Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 Nobody but me from the region has posted tonight. That's telling in so many ways;( But the destruction of Ian is fun to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Nobody but me from the region has posted tonight. That's telling in so many ways;( But the destruction of Ian is fun to watch I've been monitoring... timing is getting better (onset is earlier on Saturday now, before the sun comes up) and the latest model runs are strongly hinting at some snow in the air. Upper 30s Saturday morning, with both the GFS and Euro keeping temps in the 30s throughout the day. 0C cross-over starts out around 900mb but drops to around 925mb by the early afternoon on the GFS... that would suggest that some snow reaches the ground since it usually takes around 100mb in the low/mid levels to completely melt the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 Is sun that much of a factor in late oct? It's pretty weak now right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Nobody but me from the region has posted tonight. That's telling in so many ways;( But the destruction of Ian is fun to watch I am certainly watching it, but don't have anything quality to add and didn't want to mess up some of the discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Nobody but me from the region has posted tonight. That's telling in so many ways;( But the destruction of Ian is fun to watch so are victory dances 66-72 hrs before the event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 both the GFS and Euro keeping temps in the 30s throughout the day. ...longest consecutive hours below 40 degrees F. in October at DCA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Is sun that much of a factor in late oct? It's pretty weak now right? Still having DST is gonna kill our snow accums Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 man, I did a close up with the Wunderground Euro snow map and I'm at 7"+ while the suburbs west of Baltimore, around 5 miles to my west/nw as the crow flies, 9-10" unfookin' believable for any time of the year you go E QBO, you just go girl! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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