usedtobe Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 The latest CWG ideas on the storm. I agree with Jason's thoughts about the storm. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/saturday-snow-chance-remains-longshot-freezing-temperatures-possible-saturday-night/2011/10/26/gIQAbBoXJM_blog.html#pagebreak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Ya, above freezing for 2,700 to 3,000 feet per the GFS. Don't have Euro soundings to look at but I'd bet they look colder. They probably do. I don't get to see them either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 lolz maybe.. it's still pretty far east as far as good tracks go here. plus if it comes west it might be a bit warmer. It would have to be in the perfect spot with due north winds and a CCB from hell, but looking at the thermal profile on the euro (not soundings) it wouldn't be impossble if there were a mix of flip to crappy 35-36F flakes. That's only if it backed in a bit more and you were under the best dynamics. Otherwise you're asking for too much perhaps to get some sort of an accumulation along the coastal plain of the Mid Altantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 I may drive to see some flakes just for the fun of it. Looks a bit early in the day though. I'm not a big fan of 6am wake ups on saturdays. Skyline is the only place close enough with 3k+ elevation but it is a bit far west based on what the gfs and euro are showing. It might be a good day to go up there anyway and see the leaves. Early morning rain and cold will keep alot of people out of the park and if the sun breaks out in the afternoon it would make it worthwhile. Game time decision but worth thinking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Thanks guys. Maybe Ellinwood with come in and link me up to the site he's using. I'm sure he will whenever he happens to see our posts. I use my company's DynaCast page, but you can also use the ESRL PSD site, though when comparing the two different maps the ESRL site seems horribly off in areas with sharp temperature gradients. I don't know if it's their smoothing algorithm or not, but I'm sure that my company's page is correct (we have the same data as the NWS and verified it). ----- I'm going to hold off on making a snow forecast for the region (if I do one at all)... don't see more than an inch of accumulation except for maybe a couple of isolated areas in the mountains or up in PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 I stopped in at a deli to pick up lunch today. While waiting for my sandwich, I overhead an older woman telling a guy at the next table that "if the storm comes up from the south, we'll have a major snowstorm on Saturday." Ian said once that there are a lot more weenies out there than we realize. I am often reminded how correct that statement was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 I'm going to hold off on making a snow forecast for the region (if I do one at all)... don't see more than an inch of accumulation except for maybe a couple of isolated areas in the mountains or up in PA. bullish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 18z GFS sucks for the storm, for those who care. Vort is quite a bit farther north, low pops farther off the coast. Hardly any precip up to I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 18z GFS sucks for the storm, for those who care. Vort is quite a bit farther north, low pops farther off the coast. Hardly any precip up to I-95. Since I'm in the light rain camp, I like it. Also< I'm not yet ready for snow though I wouldn't mind doing another article tomorrow. If the GFS holds firm, that's unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 18z GFS sucks for the storm, for those who care. Vort is quite a bit farther north, low pops farther off the coast. Hardly any precip up to I-95. I guess I shouldn't have expected anything different. Like I said before, I more interested in the track of the vort and not snow chances. I don't want this to be an omen for the upcoming season if it pans out like the 18z shows. That's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 I guess I shouldn't have expected anything different. Like I said before, I more interested in the track of the vort and not snow chances. I don't want this to be an omen for the upcoming season if it pans out like the 18z shows. That's for sure. OK, I am going to pretend I didn't just read a post where you worried that a single 18Z GFS run from October 26 would mean something for the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 18z GFS sucks for the storm, for those who care. Vort is quite a bit farther north, low pops farther off the coast. Hardly any precip up to I-95. That sounds good. I rather not have 40s and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 I stopped in at a deli to pick up lunch today. While waiting for my sandwich, I overhead an older woman telling a guy at the next table that "if the storm comes up from the south, we'll have a major snowstorm on Saturday." Ian said once that there are a lot more weenies out there than we realize. I am often reminded how correct that statement was. Just about everybody loves weather to some degree. More and more as it's easier to get info and track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 OK, I am going to pretend I didn't just read a post where you worried that a single 18Z GFS run from October 26 would mean something for the winter. I think some of this thought that this storm has any grand meaning for the rest of winter is going too far. Wavelengths and the speed of the jet change from now into winter. Sure some general ideas might show up with the northern jet dominance but even there who really knows how Nina will evolve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 OK, I am going to pretend I didn't just read a post where you worried that a single 18Z GFS run from October 26 would mean something for the winter. lol- i guess it is pretty insane when you put it that way. Paying close attention to model runs and final solutions for many years does make one superstitious. Sometimes knowledge can be my own worst enemy. I already know what can go wrong in a Nina winter and I don't even want a hint of it in October. But you're right, connecting the 18z gfs in Oct to winter is absolutely insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 http://www.wtop.com/ Look at the headline... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 http://www.wtop.com/ Look at the headline... lol.. nice to see more links to CWG (and here from CWG ). at the same time the state of the media is kind of sad sometimes. i am torn since i mostly want to go into journalism full time if possible -- and i think the story writers are as factual as they can be in most instances. but the editorial headlines and such these days are annoying. everyone vying for the most hits and the most attention. pretty ridiculous to have it as the main headline like that, especially when the idea it points to says it's going to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 lol.. nice to see more links to CWG (and here from CWG ). at the same time the state of the media is kind of sad sometimes. i am torn since i mostly want to go into journalism full time if possible -- and i think the story writers are as factual as they can be in most instances. but the editorial headlines and such these days are annoying. everyone vying for the most hits and the most attention. pretty ridiculous to have it as the main headline like that, especially when the idea it points to says it's going to rain. The media throws it out there to get numbers. The problem is that most viewers don't dig any deeper than the headline, like that lady at the deli I mentioned earlier. When information comes in a tweet, people can take the info and extrapolate the story out to whatever weenie purpose that suits them. is anyone even reading articles any more ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 The media throws it out there to get numbers. The problem is that most viewers don't dig any deeper than the headline, like that lady at the deli I mentioned earlier. When information comes in a tweet, people can take the info and extrapolate the story out to whatever weenie purpose that suits them. is anyone even reading articles any more ? That's a good point on titles, and more largely the attention span of internet readers. I know personally I have trouble reading super long stuff online (yet for some reason tend to write super long stuff online ) I do myself often scan titles only to get an idea of things. In social media sensationalizing something certainly is almost everyone's goal. I've never seen more 'amazing' or 'spectacularly wow' items than since these services took off. I'm not sure the idea is that different than media has ever been but now due to the speed and potential of having something "go viral" it's clearly worse. I'm kind of a hard fact and boring person though when it comes to information so maybe I'm just not the right one to judge. It obviously works, and as noted, I think many times the substance of the article is fine despite the terrible lead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 fwiw (perhaps not much still) the nam sucked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 The Weather Channel joined the mini bandwagon. http://www.weather.com/weather/5-day/USDC0001 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 fwiw (perhaps not much still) the nam sucked Vortmax needs to get about 150 miles south...if the southern vort can hold together (it pretty much diffused out on the NAM), then that would def help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Vortmax needs to get about 150 miles south...if the southern vort can hold together (it pretty much diffused out on the NAM), then that would def help. i guess it's actually marginally better than 18z (had not looked). i think the euro overplayed the southern energy and how much the northern vort dug, but it seems we may be on the verge of heading toward consensus of something just not the big euro something. i would not be surprised to see the nam bend back west a bit at least on slp track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 i guess it's actually marginally better than 18z (had not looked). i think the euro overplayed the southern energy and how much the northern vort dug, but it seems we may be on the verge of heading toward consensus of something just not the big euro something.i would not be surprised to see the nam bend back west a bit at least. I do think this will end up closer than most models had it...but unlikely the Euro solution from yesterday. So in the end, it probably will be just a cold rain...maybe light rain if its more of a scraper. If it can get far enough west even with steady light precip, some of the elevated areas might see some flakes in interior N MD...those type of spots. That southern energy was definitely a big key on the big Euro solutions. Getting a phase with the northern vortmax to drag it all south and more amplified. Models do perform worse in the warmer season than compared to dead of winter, so I suppose we could see slightly larger errors in this time frame than we normally would. In the end, its likely to be a tease. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I do think this will end up closer than most models had it...but unlikely the Euro solution from yesterday. So in the end, it probably will be just a cold rain...maybe light rain if its more of a scraper. If it can get far enough west even with steady light precip, some of the elevated areas might see some flakes in interior N MD...those type of spots. That southern energy was definitely a big key on the big Euro solutions. Getting a phase with the northern vortmax to drag it all south and more amplified. Models do perform worse in the warmer season than compared to dead of winter, so I suppose we could see slightly larger errors in this time frame than we normally would. In the end, its likely to be a tease. yeah makes sense. question: is that a true southern stream wave or is it "ejecta' from the northern stream? it seems like it can initially be traced back to the pac nw if not further north. dt was all over that thing being why everything sucked compared to the euro but it never looked that amazing on most models except for those few runs of the euro. does the euro still have an issue with southern energy ? (I guess this never really bowling balled in the sw but it was pretty intense on the big euro output). the idea of it washing out and a dominant northern jet "screwing" us isnt that crazy for some reason, perhaps just memories from last yr. of course it is october.. but people yell at you for forecasting with climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 yeah makes sense. question: is that a true southern stream wave or is it "ejecta' from the northern stream? it seems like it can initially be traced back to the pac nw if not further north. dt was all over that thing being why everything sucked compared to the euro but it never looked that amazing on most models except for those few runs of the euro. does the euro still have an issue with southern energy ? (I guess this never really bowling balled in the sw but it was pretty intense on the big euro output). the idea of it washing out and a dominant northern jet "screwing" us isnt that crazy for some reason, perhaps just memories from last yr. of course it is october.. but people yell at you for forecasting with climo. Well its originally from the northern stream, you are correct...but I'm careful to make a distinction when calling something "southern stream" versus "STJ"...when the PJ splits, you can have two streams...northern and southern, but its definitely not a subtropical jet. I think that sometimes creates confusion because the STJ is also called southern stream and sometimes people erroneously refer to a split southern portion of the PJ as the STJ. I guess "southern stream" is more generic term that may or may not include the STJ...in this case (and most of the time in La Ninas) is usually means a split portion of the polar jet. In a year like '09-'10, the southern stream was almost always from the STJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Well its originally from the northern stream, you are correct...but I'm careful to make a distinction when calling something "southern stream" versus "STJ"...when the PJ splits, you can have two streams...northern and southern, but its definitely not a subtropical jet. I think that sometimes creates confusion because the STJ is also called southern stream and sometimes people erroneously refer to a split southern portion of the PJ as the STJ. I guess "southern stream" is more generic term that may or may not include the STJ...in this case (and most of the time in La Ninas) is usually means a split portion of the polar jet. In a year like '09-'10, the southern stream was almost always from the STJ. Makes sense. I'm not a n00b, trust me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Makes sense. I'm not a n00b, trust me. Oh I know...some of it was just for people reading, especially since I often see the error of confusing a generic term like southern stream to the STJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Oh I know...some of it was just for people reading, especially since I often see the error of confusing a generic term like southern stream to the STJ. That was in jest tho I was probably connecting the subtropical jet and southern stream to some degree. I know what the former is of course. Some of the rest is map memorization and looking at past events. But given how much it seperates etc makes total sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 That was in jest tho I was probably connecting the subtropical jet and southern stream to some degree. I know what the former is of course. Some of the rest is map memorization and looking at past events. But given how much it seperates etc makes total sense. Yeah...its one of the reasons why DC wants a STJ...because otherwise they are relying on a split flow which is harder to get. If the PJ isn't split, DC can still cash in because the STJ will bring good disturbances south of them. Otherwise its hope for a split flow, or hope the PJ digs so far south that the vortmax goes underneath....but usually it doesn't and the dreaded Miller Bs and SWFEs happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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