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the October snowstorm Ian Disaster its going to be a long winter thread


Ji

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Residents of Washington, D.C., were surely surprised to see that on Saturday, October 29, there is a slight chance of snow predicted in the metro area. This is according to information provided from the Washington Post and the European weather model.

:axe:

:lol: Nothing like a twist and shout of words. This is going viral on Facebook already

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good lord, poor Wes.

Eh it's kinda neat to see the reach CWG has. Tho this looks like something they pulled from a low level contributor and it's not that good of a piece. Media as a whole has a way of beefing up stories in leads... Gotta get readers. Probably more exciting than 'it's probably going to be a cold rainy one in dc'

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FWIW...a number of the GFS ensemble members are more amped than the Op.

http://www.meteo.psu...NE_12z/f78.html

http://www.meteo.psu...GT_12z/f72.html

[weenie comment]Would help snow chances if this thing slows down by ~6hrs so the precip would fall after dark.[/weenie comment]

If only they didn't change the end of Daylight Savings Time a few years ago. We're getting robbed of an hour!

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too bad its not dec..the entire event is 850 temps of -2 to -3...this would of been a nice clean 4-6 inch event

Look at the soundings, still temps in the boundary layer of 4C or so on the GFS. Don't know about the euro. I coul dsee a cold rain, I still don't see snow but may get to do another article.

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Look at the soundings, still temps in the boundary layer of 4C or so on the GFS. Don't know about the euro. I coul dsee a cold rain, I still don't see snow but may get to do another article.

Ya, above freezing for 2,700 to 3,000 feet per the GFS. Don't have Euro soundings to look at but I'd bet they look colder.

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lolz

maybe.. it's still pretty far east as far as good tracks go here. plus if it comes west it might be a bit warmer.

It would have to be in the perfect spot with due north winds and a CCB from hell, but looking at the thermal profile on the euro (not soundings) it wouldn't be impossble if there were a mix of flip to crappy 35-36F flakes. That's only if it backed in a bit more and you were under the best dynamics. Otherwise you're asking for too much perhaps to get some sort of an accumulation along the coastal plain of the Mid Altantic.

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I may drive to see some flakes just for the fun of it. Looks a bit early in the day though. I'm not a big fan of 6am wake ups on saturdays. Skyline is the only place close enough with 3k+ elevation but it is a bit far west based on what the gfs and euro are showing.

It might be a good day to go up there anyway and see the leaves. Early morning rain and cold will keep alot of people out of the park and if the sun breaks out in the afternoon it would make it worthwhile. Game time decision but worth thinking about.

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Thanks guys. Maybe Ellinwood with come in and link me up to the site he's using. I'm sure he will whenever he happens to see our posts.

I use my company's DynaCast page, but you can also use the ESRL PSD site, though when comparing the two different maps the ESRL site seems horribly off in areas with sharp temperature gradients. I don't know if it's their smoothing algorithm or not, but I'm sure that my company's page is correct (we have the same data as the NWS and verified it).

-----

I'm going to hold off on making a snow forecast for the region (if I do one at all)... don't see more than an inch of accumulation except for maybe a couple of isolated areas in the mountains or up in PA.

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I stopped in at a deli to pick up lunch today. While waiting for my sandwich, I overhead an older woman telling a guy at the next table that "if the storm comes up from the south, we'll have a major snowstorm on Saturday." :huh:

Ian said once that there are a lot more weenies out there than we realize. I am often reminded how correct that statement was.

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18z GFS sucks for the storm, for those who care. Vort is quite a bit farther north, low pops farther off the coast. Hardly any precip up to I-95.

Since I'm in the light rain camp, I like it. Also< I'm not yet ready for snow though I wouldn't mind doing another article tomorrow. If the GFS holds firm, that's unlikely.

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18z GFS sucks for the storm, for those who care. Vort is quite a bit farther north, low pops farther off the coast. Hardly any precip up to I-95.

I guess I shouldn't have expected anything different. Like I said before, I more interested in the track of the vort and not snow chances. I don't want this to be an omen for the upcoming season if it pans out like the 18z shows. That's for sure.

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I guess I shouldn't have expected anything different. Like I said before, I more interested in the track of the vort and not snow chances. I don't want this to be an omen for the upcoming season if it pans out like the 18z shows. That's for sure.

OK, I am going to pretend I didn't just read a post where you worried that a single 18Z GFS run from October 26 would mean something for the winter.

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I stopped in at a deli to pick up lunch today. While waiting for my sandwich, I overhead an older woman telling a guy at the next table that "if the storm comes up from the south, we'll have a major snowstorm on Saturday." :huh:

Ian said once that there are a lot more weenies out there than we realize. I am often reminded how correct that statement was.

Just about everybody loves weather to some degree. More and more as it's easier to get info and track.

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OK, I am going to pretend I didn't just read a post where you worried that a single 18Z GFS run from October 26 would mean something for the winter.

I think some of this thought that this storm has any grand meaning for the rest of winter is going too far. Wavelengths and the speed of the jet change from now into winter. Sure some general ideas might show up with the northern jet dominance but even there who really knows how Nina will evolve.

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OK, I am going to pretend I didn't just read a post where you worried that a single 18Z GFS run from October 26 would mean something for the winter.

lol- i guess it is pretty insane when you put it that way. Paying close attention to model runs and final solutions for many years does make one superstitious. Sometimes knowledge can be my own worst enemy. I already know what can go wrong in a Nina winter and I don't even want a hint of it in October. But you're right, connecting the 18z gfs in Oct to winter is absolutely insane.

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http://www.wtop.com/

Look at the headline...

lol.. nice to see more links to CWG (and here from CWG ;)).

at the same time the state of the media is kind of sad sometimes. i am torn since i mostly want to go into journalism full time if possible -- and i think the story writers are as factual as they can be in most instances. but the editorial headlines and such these days are annoying. everyone vying for the most hits and the most attention. pretty ridiculous to have it as the main headline like that, especially when the idea it points to says it's going to rain.

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lol.. nice to see more links to CWG (and here from CWG ;)).

at the same time the state of the media is kind of sad sometimes. i am torn since i mostly want to go into journalism full time if possible -- and i think the story writers are as factual as they can be in most instances. but the editorial headlines and such these days are annoying. everyone vying for the most hits and the most attention. pretty ridiculous to have it as the main headline like that, especially when the idea it points to says it's going to rain.

The media throws it out there to get numbers. The problem is that most viewers don't dig any deeper than the headline, like that lady at the deli I mentioned earlier. When information comes in a tweet, people can take the info and extrapolate the story out to whatever weenie purpose that suits them. is anyone even reading articles any more ?

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The media throws it out there to get numbers. The problem is that most viewers don't dig any deeper than the headline, like that lady at the deli I mentioned earlier. When information comes in a tweet, people can take the info and extrapolate the story out to whatever weenie purpose that suits them. is anyone even reading articles any more ?

That's a good point on titles, and more largely the attention span of internet readers. I know personally I have trouble reading super long stuff online (yet for some reason tend to write super long stuff online :() I do myself often scan titles only to get an idea of things. In social media sensationalizing something certainly is almost everyone's goal. I've never seen more 'amazing' or 'spectacularly wow' items than since these services took off. I'm not sure the idea is that different than media has ever been but now due to the speed and potential of having something "go viral" it's clearly worse. I'm kind of a hard fact and boring person though when it comes to information so maybe I'm just not the right one to judge. It obviously works, and as noted, I think many times the substance of the article is fine despite the terrible lead.

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