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the October snowstorm Ian Disaster its going to be a long winter thread


Ji

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Yeah, I think there's something to the idea of storm tracks getting established in the late fall, which I've heard some people refer to as "atmospheric memory". Really we're talking about where the baroclinic zones are being setup in the atmosphere. The Gulf Stream/E. Coast is a natural baroclinic zone, but you want cold air onshore for it to really crank. Hence we want to keep that SE ridge supressed, but not completely gone, while we get polar airmasses established to our north.

Very well said and is pretty much spot on to what I'm thinking and/or hoping.

Agree about the SE ridge too. We definitely don't want it completely gone or we end up dry and cold.

I'll take a progressive UA pattern anyday. Series of troughs, vorts, and ridges works with me. Combine this with some extended -nao/ao stuff and we'll be able to ice skate on the ponds too.

Conventional nina thinking would be the presistent trough west and ridge E and potentially a stubborn se ridge. The more time that goes by this fall without that happening keeps me pretty optimistic.

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i wonder if DT has issued a new alert

***OMG MY FAVORITE MODEL IS SO WIN***

He must still be fapping over it, because this post has been at the top of his page for the past 30mins:

dont com back over tu Henry m. site no more! u flunked out of NEMAS years ago u ass clown! no, big fat cow! I was @ NEMAS an d i know! When your forecast is wron g, yu go and hide and call names!!!! NEMAS kicked u out!! Yo big weather hood ratt!!
:lmao:
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He must still be fapping over it, because this post has been at the top of his page for the past 30mins:

:lmao:

lolz

If that low tucked in a bit more, I bet there would be some mix or maybe brief flip to snow under the best dynamics.

maybe.. it's still pretty far east as far as good tracks go here. plus if it comes west it might be a bit warmer.

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Residents of Washington, D.C., were surely surprised to see that on Saturday, October 29, there is a slight chance of snow predicted in the metro area. This is according to information provided from the Washington Post and the European weather model.

:axe:

:lol: Nothing like a twist and shout of words. This is going viral on Facebook already

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good lord, poor Wes.

Eh it's kinda neat to see the reach CWG has. Tho this looks like something they pulled from a low level contributor and it's not that good of a piece. Media as a whole has a way of beefing up stories in leads... Gotta get readers. Probably more exciting than 'it's probably going to be a cold rainy one in dc'

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FWIW...a number of the GFS ensemble members are more amped than the Op.

http://www.meteo.psu...NE_12z/f78.html

http://www.meteo.psu...GT_12z/f72.html

[weenie comment]Would help snow chances if this thing slows down by ~6hrs so the precip would fall after dark.[/weenie comment]

If only they didn't change the end of Daylight Savings Time a few years ago. We're getting robbed of an hour!

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too bad its not dec..the entire event is 850 temps of -2 to -3...this would of been a nice clean 4-6 inch event

Look at the soundings, still temps in the boundary layer of 4C or so on the GFS. Don't know about the euro. I coul dsee a cold rain, I still don't see snow but may get to do another article.

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Look at the soundings, still temps in the boundary layer of 4C or so on the GFS. Don't know about the euro. I coul dsee a cold rain, I still don't see snow but may get to do another article.

Ya, above freezing for 2,700 to 3,000 feet per the GFS. Don't have Euro soundings to look at but I'd bet they look colder.

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