mitchnick Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 actually, the 12Z UK at 72 hrs. is really impressive in the upper levels, I mean really impressive....BUT, I doubt the surface would support snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 12z GFS looks very much like the overnight runs. Still pops a low off the coast, but far enough away that everyone N/W of I-95 gets little/no precip. GFS also calls it "snow". The soundings it has would suggest maybe a rain/snow mix if they verified. Temps are above freezing from about 910mb to the surface, where temps are in the ~36-38 range. Mostly rain with maybe some ragged flakes. Would be a midnight high temperature on Saturday if it verified around ~40-45, which would be in the running for lowest max temp ever in October I believe? More realistically, gets temps sub-freezing early Sunday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 At least all models show the energy digging south of dc metro before the potential low off the coast takes over. That + hp to the N makes this at least interesting. This is a good example of how a NS system can "potentially" produce snow here. If this was happening one month later it would clearly be a snow threat. Much better than a dying 850 in the oh valley transferring off the coast. It's a game of inches with NS systems for the MA. We ended up on the short end pretty much the balance of last year. This year could easily produce a more favorable result. I'll take a string of 2-4 or 3-5 storms to hit climo since miller A's are very unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 26, 2011 Author Share Posted October 26, 2011 gfs implies that at 7am Saturday, snow could be falling lightly at Dulles with a mix of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 12z GFS looks very much like the overnight runs. Still pops a low off the coast, but far enough away that everyone N/W of I-95 gets little/no precip. GFS also calls it "snow". The soundings it has would suggest maybe a rain/snow mix if they verified. Temps are above freezing from about 910mb to the surface, where temps are in the ~36-38 range. Mostly rain with maybe some ragged flakes. Would be a midnight high temperature on Saturday if it verified around ~40-45, which would be in the running for lowest max temp ever in October I believe? More realistically, gets temps sub-freezing early Sunday! picking up right where last winter left off.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 gfs implies that at 7am Saturday, snow could be falling lightly at Dulles with a mix of rain Road trip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 12z GFS looks very much like the overnight runs. Still pops a low off the coast, but far enough away that everyone N/W of I-95 gets little/no precip. GFS also calls it "snow". The soundings it has would suggest maybe a rain/snow mix if they verified. Temps are above freezing from about 910mb to the surface, where temps are in the ~36-38 range. Mostly rain with maybe some ragged flakes. Would be a midnight high temperature on Saturday if it verified around ~40-45, which would be in the running for lowest max temp ever in October I believe? More realistically, gets temps sub-freezing early Sunday! 40 pre DCA 41 at DCA (2002!). GFS looks worse than 0z to me. Vort is north. Precip a bit east. Without hvy precip we probably have less than the no chance prior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 meh on the GFS, soundings imby indicate a cold rain with the freezing level at 900mb and surface around 39 at its coldest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 I have to catch a flight from Dulles on Sunday afternoon. Will the airport be closed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 This certainly is intriguing. Never thought I'd be tracking potential wet flakes in October, but it does happen from time to time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 I have to catch a flight from Dulles on Sunday afternoon. Will the airport be closed? Yes, better figure out another way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Yes, better figure out another way normally, we don't start talking to ourselves around here until DEC, so maybe this is a good sign for the winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 40 pre DCA 41 at DCA (2002!). Wow. Well, this would certainly get close (43-44?) if the GFS verified. GFS looks worse than 0z to me. Vort is north. Precip a bit east. Without hvy precip we probably have less than the no chance prior. Eh...you're right on the vort and precip, but it's a pretty small shift. Precip contours shift probably ~10-20mi at most. S/w trough as a whole doesn't dig quite as much, but the vort max itself is probably at nearly the same latitude at 18z Saturday. Certainly if we were really hoping for snow on this storm, we'd want the vort to dig ~100mi farther south. Yeah, for a temp profile like the one the GFS indicates, you'd really need a heavier burst and some dynamics to get it to mix/change to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 FWIW...a number of the GFS ensemble members are more amped than the Op. http://www.meteo.psu...NE_12z/f78.html http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSHGT_12z/f72.html [weenie comment]Would help snow chances if this thing slows down by ~6hrs so the precip would fall after dark.[/weenie comment] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Wow. Well, this would certainly get close (43-44?) if the GFS verified. Eh...you're right on the vort and precip, but it's a pretty small shift. Precip contours shift probably ~10-20mi at most. S/w trough as a whole doesn't dig quite as much, but the vort max itself is probably at nearly the same latitude at 18z Saturday. Certainly if we were really hoping for snow on this storm, we'd want the vort to dig ~100mi farther south. Yeah, for a temp profile like the one the GFS indicates, you'd really need a heavier burst and some dynamics to get it to mix/change to snow. Looking from my phone so hard to judge specifics. Not terribly exciting tho. If I had to bet we won't be as cols as shown either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Looking from my phone so hard to judge specifics. Not terribly exciting tho. If I had to bet we won't be as cols as shown either. That's another reliable stance to take. Cold air has been coming for years on the GFS, but it is hasn't ever made it. The last really cold airmass that I remember is 1996. There may have been some in between that I'm just forgetting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 euro looks a bit more wrapped up than 0z.. similar placement of the low, but more precip with stronger sys.. temps near 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 actually, it's back a bit west with the center Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Where does everyone get the Euro so quickly? The sites I know lag by about 15-30mins at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 cold tropical rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 euro looks a bit more wrapped up than 0z.. similar placement of the low, but more precip with stronger sys.. temps near 40 the low is a good bit west from 0z @ hr. 78 vs. hr90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 .5" moved from about DC to about leesburg.. ne of RIC and everyone east of the bay 1"+ .. maybe some messy flakes in there with that look (temps actually verbatim in the 30s most of the day but probably close to 40) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Aviationdave : (26 October 2011 - 02:13 PM) [/url] <Ian> told you jackasses it wasnt going to snow here <Ian> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 cold tropical rain Vote leader right now Edit: no it ain't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 the low is a good bit west from 0z @ hr. 78 vs. hr90 yes, see post after that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 I'm more excited about that fact that this setup is happening. I don't really care if it snows or not. We need to pray that at least some (if not the majority) of 500mb vorts dig south of DC if we want shots of snow this winter (stating the obvious of course). Another thing I like is a stubborn SE ridge hasn't set up for quite a while during the months that count. We never really had one last year at all. Even once the switch flipped in Feb last year the pattern stayed pretty progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 .5" moved from about DC to about leesburg.. ne of RIC and everyone east of the bay 1"+ .. maybe some messy flakes in there with that look (temps actually verbatim in the 30s most of the day but probably close to 40) I just hope we get a few repeats of this in a month+, with all things staying climatologically (if that's a word!) equal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 .5" moved from about DC to about leesburg.. ne of RIC and everyone east of the bay 1"+ .. maybe some messy flakes in there with that look (temps actually verbatim in the 30s most of the day but probably close to 40) yea 10/29 12z has temps in the 30's I95 west 18z nice pocket of 30's ric -dc-phl still rain, but could be a deformed snowflake if you drive fast hitting the windshield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 I'm more excited about that fact that this setup is happening. I don't really care if it snows or not. Yeah, I think there's something to the idea of storm tracks getting established in the late fall, which I've heard some people refer to as "atmospheric memory". Really we're talking about where the baroclinic zones are being setup in the atmosphere. The Gulf Stream/E. Coast is a natural baroclinic zone, but you want cold air onshore for it to really crank. Hence we want to keep that SE ridge supressed, but not completely gone, while we get polar airmasses established to our north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 I just hope we get a few repeats of this in a month+, with all things staying climatologically (if that's a word!) equal yeah... a few weeks later and it's more interesting for sure. i wonder if DT has issued a new alert ***OMG MY FAVORITE MODEL IS SO WIN*** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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