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the October snowstorm Ian Disaster its going to be a long winter thread


Ji

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And the euro went back to the GFS from yesterday. All we have is a coastal rain. If any higher elev. squeeze out a flake then it is a bonus.

Yep that's pretty much it, the euro went to the GFS and the latter went towards the old Euro but not as amped or as cold. I'm not sure where the Releigh maps get their snow as the soundings for DC show the temps in the lowest 5000 ft above freezing. that's not a good snow profile and certainly not one that would give you an accumulation.

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btw Ian, Elliot in the Morning was talking about the CWG this morning and how you are calling for snow this weekend. He was getting excited, even referencing the Euro, until Diane corrected him that it was mainly a threat for the mountains west of the city.

Mention snow and everyone just focuses on that. I blame Wes!!

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It may be worth the drive to skyline depending on timing. I was planning on hiking on Sat with my son but that looks to be off the table. If I wake up early and there is snow on the webcams then it's probably worth it. Put on the ski gear and hike stoney man in the snow? Sounds like a good idea to me.

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but I get paid to hype, I'm just not good at it like mets (no names given)

Ha. Most tame hype ever. ;)

PostLocal was advertising it like "the s word is in the forecast!" ... People who read on were probably disappointed. :P

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Why do we want it to snow now? It won't stick unless we got a tremendously heavy snow rate. Then all the trees would be damaged. It won't last. I'd rather get the leaves down, get the ground cold, then bring on the snow.

Anyway, looks like the GFS is coming around. This reminds me of the Christmas snow. Seems like we are heading back toward the early Euro solutions (Midlo posted a snow map on Oct. 21 - 180 hours). I wonder if we end up back at that solution.

Whatever. I hope this is a good sign for the winter. I remember distictly that Halloween weekend was cold and snowy (at least on the west side of the Apps) in 1995.

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Why do we want it to snow now? It won't stick unless we got a tremendously heavy snow rate. Then all the trees would be damaged. It won't last. I'd rather get the leaves down, get the ground cold, then bring on the snow.

Anyway, looks like the GFS is coming around. This reminds me of the Christmas snow. Seems like we are heading back toward the early Euro solutions (Midlo posted a snow map on Oct. 21 - 180 hours). I wonder if we end up back at that solution.

Whatever. I hope this is a good sign for the winter. I remember distictly that Halloween weekend was cold and snowy (at least on the west side of the Apps) in 1995.

The GFS could easily be wrong. It bounces like any other model. It tricked us on boxing day after the euro finally bailed.

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Whatever. I hope this is a good sign for the winter. I remember distictly that Halloween weekend was cold and snowy (at least on the west side of the Apps) in 1995.

Halloween itself was actually above normal, but there was a strong cold snap following what appears to be a highly dynamic system in the Nov 4-10 range.

Looking at the temp anomaly maps... wow that was a highly-amplified (and progressive) pattern.

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Halloween itself was actually above normal, but there was a strong cold snap following what appears to be a highly dynamic system in the Nov 4-10 range.

Looking at the temp anomaly maps... wow that was a highly-amplified (and progressive) pattern.

I was in SW VA then, on the other side of the mountains. I don't know about the DC area. Probably about a day delay in the weather.

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And the euro sort of bailed this time which is what made Katie a cow or so I've heard. ;)

Someone should analyze his page and see what percentage of posts mention the Euro. It's gotta be like 80%.

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Someone should analyze his page and see what percentage of posts mention the Euro. It's gotta be like 80%.

He seems to almost always to go with the euro. It is the best model but isn't always right. Even if the new GFS is correct, I don't see snow just light to moderate rain, probably the former.

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Would you mind sharing "how" you went back and looked. I'd love to be able to do that from time to time.

Don't know how Ellinwood does it, but you can find historical data here...

http://www.wunderground.com/history/

Just type in the zipcode in question and select the date. Seems to do a pretty good job - at least for temperatures. Precip data is spotty at best going back more than just a couple years.

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Would you mind sharing "how" you went back and looked. I'd love to be able to do that from time to time.

I'm also curious about the coastal (?) from mid-October 2009. I was in CT for my friend's wedding the weekend of that storm, and since their anniversary just passed, I was thinking about it the other day. Nasty storm.

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Don't know how Ellinwood does it, but you can find historical data here...

http://www.wunderground.com/history/

Just type in the zipcode in question and select the date. Seems to do a pretty good job - at least for temperatures. Precip data is spotty at best going back more than just a couple years.

I'm also curious about the coastal (?) from mid-October 2009. I was in CT for my friend's wedding the weekend of that storm, and since their anniversary just passed, I was thinking about it the other day. Nasty storm.

Thanks guys. Maybe Ellinwood with come in and link me up to the site he's using. I'm sure he will whenever he happens to see our posts.

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