Ian Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Were you trolling his "alert/geek post"/GFS-bashing comment? yes i asked why he still hugs the euro so much and if he felt his self congratulation on a storm 5 days away was premature yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 That's it. I thought it had the GEFS tracks but doesn't, only the SREF. Thanks. I think the GEFS (and others) are out on the new Model Analysis & Guidance (MAG) site: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevpage=index&MainPage=index&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&page=MODEL+GUIDANCE Here's the link to the Ops and Experimental model output front page for all of the products: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/GEFS/.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 That snowfall totals link also shows a Trace of snow in June in 2002?!? Hail? The DC weather records that I have show a trace of snow on several summer days, including July 1, 1990, when the temperature range was 69-90, and there were 0.44 inches of precipitation. Obviously any frozen precipitation that fell on that day had to be hail, but perhaps a novice employee who is asked to record the amount of "snow and ice" may interpret hail to qualify in that category. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I think the GEFS (and others) are out on the new Model Analysis & Guidance (MAG) site: http://mag.ncep.noaa...=MODEL+GUIDANCE Here's the link to the Ops and Experimental model output front page for all of the products: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/GEFS/.php GEFS seem a bit more supportive of the storm #2 idea. Lots of spread extending back closer to the coast Monday-ish. GFS and GEFS definitely slowed both systems down somewhat. The DC weather records that I have show a trace of snow on several summer days, including July 1, 1990, when the temperature range was 69-90, and there were 0.44 inches of precipitation. Obviously any frozen precipitation that fell on that day had to be hail, but perhaps a novice employee who is asked to record the amount of "snow and ice" may interpret hail to qualify in that category. In official AF observing, we had to report measurable hail as snow/ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Based on talk in the other subforums, Euro bombs the second storm again. Midlo, what's the word for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 euro not budging, shifted a little east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 euro not budging, shifted a little east that's good for those along and just east of the dreaded I95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 that's good for those along and just east of the dreaded I95 Mitch, don't fall for it. Even in the dead of winter we can't get sh*t right around here. It's one model. And it's likely way too amp'd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 only a few more cycles till the euro caves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 96h low off cape charles is what I heard. Nice coastal placement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Based on talk in the other subforums, Euro bombs the second storm again. Midlo, what's the word for us? looks like some snow in the mtns. va, wva. nothing heavy. the storm bombs east of del. as it passes the mid atl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 euro not budging, shifted a little east That about covers it. The 12Z gefs ensemble mean is still east but has lots of spread back towards the coast suggesting it has a few more euro like members somewhere in the mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 looks like some snow in the mtns. va, wva. nothing heavy. the storm bombs east of del. as it passes the mid atl. no more 1"+ qpf in the cold air over wv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 only a few more cycles till the euro caves 18z will bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 looks like some snow in the mtns. va, wva. nothing heavy. the storm bombs east of del. as it passes the mid atl. F-cking Miller B's I wonder if the Euro is continuing it's legacy from last winter. It was a big c*cktease in the Day 5-7 range only to lose these sweet looking storms as we got closer to gametime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 18z will bomb too much model watching for a rainstorm (if that) around here.. im about to check out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 too much model watching for a rainstorm (if that) around here.. im about to check out. quitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 It came a week later than this "storm" is progged, but 11/6/1953 DCA had 6.6", BWI had 5.9" and MRB had 6" That's probably the earliest widespread heavy snow in our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 F-cking Miller B's I wonder if the Euro is continuing it's legacy from last winter. It was a big c*cktease in the Day 5-7 range only to lose these sweet looking storms as we got closer to gametime. yeah, last year was bad but 08/09 was even worse I still have those images saved in my computer because I'm such a loosing whiner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 In official AF observing, we had to report measurable hail as snow/ice. Thanks for the information. The problem with the DC weather record that I have is that, generally, hail is not listed as a trace amount in the "snow" column, but occasionally it is listed. So, it appears to depend upon the recorder as to whether hail gets listed in that column. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 It came a week later than this "storm" is progged, but 11/6/1953 DCA had 6.6", BWI had 5.9" and MRB had 6" That's probably the earliest widespread heavy snow in our region. That storm had a much different 500h pattern with a closed 500h low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 another big coastal hr 168 , 500 trough digs all the way to the gulf then closes off a 500 low in western NC, then over va.--- warm this go round all rain but interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Euro gives everyone (except you central VA and DCA pukes) a hard freeze on Sunday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 25, 2011 Author Share Posted October 25, 2011 euro is a bit warmer than 00z runs which makes a big difference in OCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 euro is a bit warmer than 00z runs which makes a big difference in OCT dt says it's the same and he's a genius Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 dt says it's the same and he's a genius 12Z TUESDAY EUROPEAN HOLDS COURSE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Euro shows another big storm (albeit rain) at around 174hrs. If nothing else, I sure love seeing these coastals form every few days East QBO will be our snow savior this winter; we'll get our share of rain, but we'll get some hits too p.s. 12Z JMA is 2" qpf for the weekend with "some" snow, but it's hard to figure out exactly based on the 24 hr map intervals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 F-cking Miller B's I wonder if the Euro is continuing it's legacy from last winter. It was a big c*cktease in the Day 5-7 range only to lose these sweet looking storms as we got closer to gametime. If I learned anything from last winter, it was not to get excited by a northern-stream dominant pattern. I'm not falling again for the s**t the Euro pulled last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I hope we get a good amount of rain...we need it...it has been kind of dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 yeah, last year was bad but 08/09 was even worse I still have those images saved in my computer because I'm such a loosing whiner I honestly don't remember that winter. Probably because I was getting ready to get married and buy a house, so had other things on my mind. Also probably because nothing happened and I wasn't really following things back then like I do now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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