Bob Chill Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 if nothing else, we'll get an idea of which model(s) will be the better of the lot for the coming season It's the damn NS stuff. Doesn't matter which model. They'll both suck or be great on and off all season. Such little change in amplitude = big dif in outcome This year will be similar to last year irt to solutions and accuracy. I guess the one think I like about it is that we can be surprised too and not just deflated. Of course, I would much prefer a nino with nothing but miller A's but hey, that's just me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 It's the damn NS stuff. Doesn't matter which model. They'll both suck or be great on and off all season. Such little change in amplitude = big dif in outcome This year will be similar to last year irt to solutions and accuracy. I guess the one think I like about it is that we can be surprised too and not just deflated. Of course, I would much prefer a nino with nothing but miller A's but hey, that's just me. Surprise would require a healthy dose of snow/model cynicism...which I suppose is required in this area unless you want to drive yourself insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Wait, you're doing it for free? Sucker! It would appear so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I make the maps that make the weather world sing. I make the maps of snow and tropical things. I make the maps that make the weenies cry. I make the maps, I make the maps. I am mapgirl, and I make the maps. (With apologies to Neil Diamond) Manilow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Manilow You mean, MAP-ilow! Uk-hyuck-hyuck... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Manilow Performed by Manilow, but written by off and on Beach Boy member Bruce Johnston. "I Write the Songs" won the Grammy for Song of the Year in 1977; see http://en.wikipedia....Write_the_Songs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 You mean, MAP-ilow! Uk-hyuck-hyuck... I lold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 You mean, MAP-ilow! Uk-hyuck-hyuck... You should see a doctor about that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Manilow Eh, lounge lizard singers who women still throw their underwear at...easy to get confused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 25, 2011 Author Share Posted October 25, 2011 Euro was over amplified with storms quite a bit last year..even showing great solutions 3-4 runs in a row...then it would lose it. Euro is an outlier here so its in big trouble...but well see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Apparantly we had a trace amount of snow on October 22, 2003? I don't remember that. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/climate/bwi/Bwioct.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 lol, Ji Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 You should see a doctor about that You should see if that old lady needs help to her gate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 It would appear so I see what you did there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Euro was over amplified with storms quite a bit last year..even showing great solutions 3-4 runs in a row...then it would lose it. Euro is an outlier here so its in big trouble...but well see You really think it's going to snow this weekend, don't you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 25, 2011 Author Share Posted October 25, 2011 You really think it's going to snow this weekend, don't you? if there is a storm with proper track, there is no reason why snow cant fall from the sky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Apparantly we had a trace amount of snow on October 22, 2003? I don't remember that. http://www.erh.noaa..../bwi/Bwioct.txt Perhaps a single flake? I don't have the BWI weather records, but the temperature range at DCA that day was 46-61. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I think you guys are the ones that need to be invested in this one. ANybody down here getting excited is in for a world of hurt. Like Matt said, 1%. Well I don't mean snow necessarily...you weenie. It's just good to see a strong cstl system this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Well I don't mean snow necessarily...you weenie. It's just good to see a strong cstl system this time of year. There's other weather? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 You should see if that old lady needs help to her gate. I already did, she gave me $20 so I can buy some Flat Tire brews and stay at home and doesnt cost me anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 There's other weather? Looks like it is snowing on the cameras in Cumberland, Md. Opps wait my bad, no it isnt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Looks like it is snowing on the cameras in Cumberland, Md. Opps wait my bad, no it isnt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 12z GFS still says "no" to the 2nd storm this weekend, but it does eventually pop a low well offshore. A guess that's a step in the right direction, since I don't believe it had anything develop (at least on the last run I saw). 12z run also keeps the trend of the last several runs of showing a superbomb/500 closed low coming out of the Plains in fantasyland. It's extra fantastical since it makes no meteorological sense, but makes some sexy porn at hrs 300-312. What are the winter analogs for years when we have the GFS and the Euro already showing bombing east-coast lows by the end of October? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 12z GFS still says "no" to the 2nd storm this weekend, but it does eventually pop a low well offshore. A guess that's a step in the right direction, since I don't believe it had anything develop (at least on the last run I saw). 12z run also keeps the trend of the last several runs of showing a superbomb/500 closed low coming out of the Plains in fantasyland. It's extra fantastical since it makes no meteorological sense, but makes some sexy porn at hrs 300-312. What are the winter analogs for years when we have the GFS and the Euro already showing bombing east-coast lows by the end of October? Do you remember an NCEP ensemble low track product? I think I do but can't find it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 While I generally do not put much faith in snow this time of year, it would be nice to get some accumulating snow during the PSU game this coming weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Do you remember an NCEP ensemble low track product? I think I do but can't find it. This? http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/emchurr/tcgen/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 While I generally do not put much faith in snow this time of year, it would be nice to get some accumulating snow during the PSU game this coming weekend. Just as long as they don't close the grass parking lots first like they did a few years ago when it snowed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Perhaps a single flake? I don't have the BWI weather records, but the temperature range at DCA that day was 46-61. Well I find it interesting because BWI has only had snowfall 8 times in October since records have been kept (and 5 of those were just trace events). And one of those happens to be in 2003 so I figured it would've been memorable to... someone. But yeah I guess it could've just been one flake amidst all the rain. That day it was 60 High, 43 Low at BWI according to the records. I'm just curious what the setup was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Hmmm...pretty hard to snow at 43 (or higher). Possible, but takes a pretty special environment that's not too common around here. What were temps the next day? Did a big cold front blast through or something? If temps the next day were about the same, I call BS on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Well I find it interesting because BWI has only had snowfall 8 times in October since records have been kept (and 5 of those were just trace events). And one of those happens to be in 2003 so I figured it would've been memorable to... someone. But yeah I guess it could've just been one flake amidst all the rain. That day it was 60 High, 43 Low at BWI according to the records. I'm just curious what the setup was. According to Weather Underground, the low was 44, but they don't mention any snow; see http://www.wundergro...eq_statename=NA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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