usedtobe Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 On 10/27/2011 at 9:14 PM, jnis said: Does anyone have any thoughts on how much accumulation would cause significant tree damage? Last year, I only had 5.5" or so and lost power due to tree damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 On 10/27/2011 at 9:15 PM, usedtobe said: Yes, I am. I won't even stay up until the GFS. Not even a peek Wes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 On 10/27/2011 at 9:12 PM, yoda said: While the 18z NAM looks so pretty... it likely overcorrected to the EXTREME. If the 18z GFS looks like the 18z NAM, I may take a closer look. That would be a one in a million years storm IMO. Though we did have like a once in a 1000 year flooding event around here in September... and a once in a long time (over 500 years?) earthquake near 6.0 in August... so why not another once in a lifetime event in October to continue the trend? Oh I hear ya, NAM solution = no way no how. But, coming to basic same setup @ 500 and 850 is pretty cool. It seems pretty likely that the 500 vort will track where we want it and coastal development to follow. Could be a nice dynamic storm. 65 degree water off the MD/VA coast should be a good contribution to an overall nice setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 On 10/27/2011 at 9:14 PM, jnis said: Does anyone have any thoughts on how much accumulation would cause significant tree damage? 3" of the snow-type progged on the NAM would be enough to bring down some limbs. I have a hunch we aren't getting anywhere near 3" along the I95 corridor S of the MD/PA line. It's an un-scientific hunch, too anamolous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 On 10/27/2011 at 9:16 PM, yoda said: Not even a peek Wes? Nope, this time of year it's too late for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 On 10/27/2011 at 8:37 PM, Midlo Snow Maker said: This is unbelievable. - If these runs keep up like this - I just might have to get off the Battle Pirates and track weather for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Next up its the 18z RGEM!!! 36 hrs (06z SAT) -- http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/3294_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 October 10, 1979. The last time a decent snowstorm hit the Shenandoah Valley in October. It is rare but it does happen. I think Dulles even got over an inch with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 On 10/27/2011 at 9:14 PM, jnis said: Does anyone have any thoughts on how much accumulation would cause significant tree damage? With leaves on the trees, not much at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 soundings off the 18Z NAM for BWI and mby are incredible definitely all snow at 48 hrs (isothermal) and probably wet snow at 45 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 On 10/27/2011 at 9:12 PM, yoda said: While the 18z NAM looks so pretty... it likely overcorrected to the EXTREME. If the 18z GFS looks like the 18z NAM, I may take a closer look. That would be a one in a million years storm IMO. Though we did have like a once in a 1000 year flooding event around here in September... and a once in a long time (over 500 years?) earthquake near 6.0 in August... so why not another once in a lifetime event in October to continue the trend? Consider what we have seen here in the DC region this year already - highs in the 105 degree range, incredible rainfall, 20 inches just in September alone. Also consider the extremes in the southern Plains, Austin Texas with THREE MONTHS of 100 plus weather Extremes are the norm this year. Why not an extreme anomalous snow event for the I95 corridor two months early? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 On 10/27/2011 at 9:20 PM, yoda said: Next up its the 18z RGEM!!! 36 hrs (06z SAT) -- http://www.weatherof...st/3294_100.gif 48 hrs should be incredible with that 700mb map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 On 10/27/2011 at 9:15 PM, usedtobe said: Last year, I only had 5.5" or so and lost power due to tree damage. I'm assuming that 5.5" was after the leaves had fallen, or I suppose the damaged trees might have been evergreens. Then I'm guessing that 3 or 4 inches of wet snow on leaved trees would be a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marked8 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 This is an aweful long thread for a cold rain storm I will believe it when I see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 On 10/27/2011 at 9:20 PM, clskinsfan said: October 10, 1979. The last time a decent snowstorm hit the Shenandoah Valley in October. It is rare but it does happen. I think Dulles even got over an inch with this storm. That's a cool picture, and although I can't speak for Dulles, we got a decent covering in Largo, MD, from that storm. And for the tree-huggers, even that did some damage to some shrubs and even the smaller trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 On 10/27/2011 at 9:23 PM, Jebman said: Consider what we have seen here in the DC region this year already - highs in the 105 degree range, incredible rainfall, 20 inches just in September alone. Also consider the extremes in the southern Plains, Austin Texas with THREE MONTHS of 100 plus weather Extremes are the norm this year. Why not an extreme anomalous snow event for the I95 corridor two months early? just wait till we get paid back with like 3 years of total boring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 On 10/27/2011 at 9:23 PM, marked8 said: This is an aweful long thread for a cold rain storm I will believe it when I see it. we didnt even get this many posts fo the 1,000 yr rain train .. snow weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
astarck Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 We need a 1000 yr snow event. What would that be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 An absolute winter weenie fantasy on the NAM. WOW! Reminds me a bit of the rush hour nightmare last winter that hit like a ton of bricks with marginal surface temps but still reached 5-6 inches here in Arlington in just a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 18z RGEM 48 -- http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/3295_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 On 10/27/2011 at 9:28 PM, astarck said: We need a 1000 yr snow event. What would that be? Maybe a couple of the February Fury events in 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 On 10/27/2011 at 9:29 PM, yoda said: 18z RGEM 48 -- http://www.weatherof...st/3295_100.gif juicy...hard to tell about thermal profiles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 On 10/27/2011 at 9:29 PM, yoda said: 18z RGEM 48 -- http://www.weatherof...st/3295_100.gif looking a lot like the 18Z NAM through 48 hrs more to come after that per 7h map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 On 10/27/2011 at 9:31 PM, chris87 said: juicy...hard to tell about thermal profiles I looks a little warm but I think that is typical of the canadian models. At any rate, it is wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 On 10/27/2011 at 9:31 PM, chris87 said: juicy...hard to tell about thermal profiles I guess the dashed line is the 0C line... parallels I-95 it looks like at 48... could be that S and E of DC rain... DC corridor mix.. out to BR snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 On 10/27/2011 at 9:34 PM, yoda said: I guess the dashed line is the 0C line... parallels I-95 it looks like at 48... could be that S and E of DC rain... DC corridor mix.. out to BR snow actually looks like 1000-700 mb critical thickness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Dark clouds approaching from NW - cold front about to whoop our butt Ahead of it, cumulus moving from WNW, above that, cirrocumulus and other ML clouds moving from SW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Models hath giveth back what they hadst taken away....... A lot of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Rain to snow at 48 on 18z GFS? Could be a bit earlier... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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