stormtracker Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 The NAM is ridiculous. The heavier precip would easily overcome the surface layer warmth. The only problem is, the NAM often over corrects itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 On 10/27/2011 at 8:35 PM, MN Transplant said: it's not even a close call for DCA if this verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 looks like it stalls the low out for a while... hard to buy its output given it's just now coming on board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 On 10/27/2011 at 8:36 PM, chris87 said: it's not even a close call for DCA if this verifies. NAM drops over an inch qpf at BWI, and close to that at DCA/IAD the 3 hours ending 54 hrs, and it's all snow per MNTransplant's map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 51hrs is heavy QPF, surface temps in the Mid 30s, and 850s below freezing, thats a wet snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 On 10/27/2011 at 8:36 PM, Ian said: looks like it stalls the low out for a while... hard to buy its output given it's just now coming on board like I said, looks like the 18Z run from 12/17/09 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 On 10/27/2011 at 8:36 PM, Ian said: looks like it stalls the low out for a while... hard to buy its output given it's just now coming on board yeah i'm going to take a pass on getting super excited over the 18z NAM but the trend towards a more dynamic system is a good step towards the rest of guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 top 15 DC snowstorm in october.. sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 On 10/27/2011 at 8:38 PM, chris87 said: yeah i'm going to take a pass on getting super excited over the 18z NAM but the trend towards a more dynamic system is a good step towards the rest of guidance. too late, you're in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 On 10/27/2011 at 8:30 PM, Ian said: It's clearly an issue but the other poster said no snow will stick because it's been warm and a half yr since a freeze etc. Heavy rates can overcome most obstacles though obviously roads etc won't likely be a huge problem if it's during the day in particular. If it's all light then you're definitely into more of an issue. Both sides get kind of stubborn on this.. Agree. Wasn't contradicting you or Phineas. Just pointing out that the ground is really warm. It has to be a special event in October with temps in the 30's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 On 10/27/2011 at 8:35 PM, chris87 said: dynamics win on this run vs. a warm BL Yep, still too early to jump on it but it even cools the boundary layer to below freezing by 11 Am from Frederick to just northwest of Baltimore. It's an exciting run for the weenies. I'm suspecting that a certain black man is thinking white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 On 10/27/2011 at 8:39 PM, Ian said: top 15 DC snowstorm in october.. sure. Don't count it out - we've had a hurricane, earthquake and tornadoes around the area this year. We are due for a massive October blizzard. Take it to the bank. Then we will have La Palma collapse and deliver a tsunami in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 On 10/27/2011 at 8:39 PM, Ian said: top 15 DC snowstorm in october.. sure. at least there is no arctic air mass behind it to suffer through while PEPCO takes 2 weeks to get our power back on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 On 10/27/2011 at 8:39 PM, Ian said: top 15 DC snowstorm in october.. sure. Although you know how I feel about your pessimism, I think you are essentially correct. It's fun to look at it, but climatology trumps all. Realistically, I think the most we can hope for is to see it snowing on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 verbatin the nam would cause a heck of alot of damage. power would be out until thanksgiving. Wasn't it buffalo that had that big october snow some years back? All the leaves were still on the trees and it was a crushing blow to the trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Foots Forecast now going gung-ho and warning of tree downage potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 On 10/27/2011 at 8:43 PM, Bob Chill said: verbatin the nam would cause a heck of alot of damage. power would be out until thanksgiving. Wasn't it buffalo that had that big october snow some years back? All the leaves were still on the trees and it was a crushing blow to the trees. trees are overrated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 On 10/27/2011 at 8:41 PM, usedtobe said: Yep, still too early to jump on it but it even cools the boundary layer to below freezing by 11 Am from Frederick to just northwest of Baltimore. It's an exciting run for the weenies. I'm suspecting that a certain black man is thinking white. thats sig worthy, hard to believe we are tracking this stuff so early. it would be funny if we don't track another chance until january Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Sunday Morning drops into the Mid 20s it looks like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 On 10/27/2011 at 8:41 PM, Kmlwx said: Don't count it out - we've had a hurricane, earthquake and tornadoes around the area this year. We are due for a massive October blizzard. Take it to the bank. Then we will have La Palma collapse and deliver a tsunami in November. if it's going to snow i guess it might as well really snow... but with no continuity in the model it's just pretty pictures Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 NAM looks good, I'm gonna go ahead and ride it for now....who's with me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 If you think that NAM run might verify, go take a picture of any tree you like. It won't be there on Saturday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 On 10/27/2011 at 8:44 PM, Ian said: if it's going to snow i guess it might as well really snow... but with no continuity in the model it's just pretty pictures In all seriousness I'm in the camp of seeing some flakes but no stickage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 On 10/27/2011 at 8:45 PM, leesburg 04 said: NAM looks good, I'm gonna go ahead and ride it for now....who's with me? Hopefully nobody leaks that 18z NAM snow map to the lay people...otherwise good luck keeping your store stocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlYourWxPal Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 On 10/27/2011 at 8:45 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: If you think that NAM run might verify, go take a picture of any tree you like. It won't be there on Saturday evening. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 On 10/27/2011 at 8:45 PM, leesburg 04 said: NAM looks good, I'm gonna go ahead and ride it for now....who's with me? it's a good step towards seeing a snowflake on Saturday...we're 36 hours before figuring out if that crazy output is even possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 On 10/27/2011 at 8:42 PM, stormtracker said: Although you know how I feel about your pessimism, I think you are essentially correct. It's fun to look at it, but climatology trumps all. Realistically, I think the most we can hope for is to see it snowing on Saturday. that's not even pessimism. if we get 12"+ snow from this storm i'll find a new hobby effective on sunday. there won't be much more to see. tho im still skeptical of these snow maps more than normal given the warmth prior and likely bad ratios. i dunno if they're all doing 10:1 standard etc but i'd be tempted to chop that almost in half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 On 10/27/2011 at 8:47 PM, Ian said: that's not even pessimism. if we get 12"+ snow from this storm i'll find a new hobby effective on sunday. there won't be much more to see. tho im still skeptical of these snow maps more than normal given the warmth prior and likely bad ratios. i dunno if they're all doing 10:1 standard etc but i'd be tempted to chop that almost in half. So 6 inches. I'll take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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