MN Transplant Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Because someone was going to... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 On 10/24/2011 at 6:55 PM, MN Transplant said: Because someone was going to... you screwed WV outta some snow with that map.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 On 10/24/2011 at 6:55 PM, MN Transplant said: Because someone was going to... So close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 On 10/24/2011 at 6:58 PM, Ian said: you screwed WV outta some snow with that map.. We only care about the panhandle, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 If current data verifies, this should be an elevation event from the BR into W.Va., possible above 1000' , and likely above 3000'. GFS and Euro approaching consensus on event, but Euro a little warmer at 6z Sat. with 850 w. of I81 compared to GFS along BR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 On 10/24/2011 at 7:02 PM, stormy said: If current data verifies, this should be an elevation event from the BR into W.Va., possible above 1000' , and likely above 3000'. GFS and Euro approaching consensus on event, but Euro a little warmer at 6z Sat. with 850 w. of I81 compared to GFS along BR. it's still at a minimum like 4 days off and at a max 6.. also dependent on a frontrunner storm. im not sure 'consensus' means jack at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Euro gives me 2 inches of snow Saturday, I'm hugging it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 anyone know what the euro snow map is showing? 24 hr totals? less? it seems really low in spots for the QPF (particularly NE of here into New England). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 On 10/24/2011 at 7:11 PM, Ian said: it's still at a minimum like 4 days off and at a max 6.. also dependent on a frontrunner storm. im not sure 'consensus' means jack at this point. agreed, "consensus" doesn't mean "Jack".... unless it verifies. It is interesting to see the 12z GFS and ECMWF both in the court of support for some type of event for 110 - 130 hrs. If that event occurs, climo and temp. profiles suggest an elevation event. The trending toward consensus is an upgrade from 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 On 10/24/2011 at 6:12 PM, RodneyS said: That's pretty amazing. Did the Veterans Day Storm of 1987 miss your area? That day (November 11), DCA recorded 11.5 inches of snow, but IAD had only 5.3 inches. My fault, I'd forgotten about that one. We did get snow here; I believe we ended up with 5 - 6 inches out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 On 10/24/2011 at 7:24 PM, Ian said: anyone know what the euro snow map is showing? 24 hr totals? less? it seems really low in spots for the QPF (particularly NE of here into New England). From the 12z Euro clown map: Storm totals showing almost no snowfall east of I-95... a nice foot+ swath runs from south-central PA up through southern ME (with one small disconnect in central PA). Small 2 ft. max in western MA up on the Berkshires. NW MD cashes in with 8-12" ...northern MD from BWI to PHL pretty much running on the edge of the snow gradient in the 2" range. DCA/IAD right on the edge of the bigger stuff to the NW. Snow shield goes all the way out to western PA and central WV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 On 10/24/2011 at 7:31 PM, Ellinwood said: From the 12z Euro clown map: Storm totals showing almost no snowfall east of I-95... a nice foot+ swath runs from south-central PA up through southern ME (with one small disconnect in central PA). Small 2 ft. max in western MA up on the Berkshires. NW MD cashes in with 8-12" ...northern MD from BWI to PHL pretty much running on the edge of the snow gradient in the 2" range. DCA/IAD right on the edge of the bigger stuff to the NW. Snow shield goes all the way out to western PA and central WV. cool. i meant the wunderground one specifically but those totals back up that it's showing a short period or wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Ian, I think Mark was talking about the underground one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 On 10/24/2011 at 7:33 PM, Ian said: cool. i meant the wunderground one specifically but those totals back up that it's showing a short period or wrong. Yeah, I just figured I'd pull the data off of the MDA site just to get a grasp on the total affected area and actual model-estimated storm totals (as unlikely as they are). On 10/24/2011 at 7:34 PM, mapgirl18 said: Ian, I think Mark was talking about the underground one It's not as detailed, but it's a lot easier to look at MDA's maps vs. wunderground (I wish we would contour stuff that's under 2" ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 On 10/24/2011 at 7:34 PM, mapgirl18 said: Ian, I think Mark was talking about the underground one it's definitely showing short periods.. either 3 or 6 hr, not event total Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 On 10/24/2011 at 7:37 PM, Ian said: it's definitely showing short periods.. either 3 or 6 hr, not event total Oh...yeah, three hours on wunderground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 There is really nothing to see here. No snow in Oct on average so let's keep it real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 On 10/24/2011 at 7:26 PM, EastCoast NPZ said: My fault, I'd forgotten about that one. We did get snow here; I believe we ended up with 5 - 6 inches out here. Thanks. That storm is the all-time DC autumn blockbuster, even though it wasn't that bad to the west of the city. According to-- http://www.colinbeav...Snowstorms.html -- " . . . a completely unforecasted low pressure bombed off the North Carolina coast and produced a mesoscale convective snow band that passed through southern Maryland and the Washington, D.C. area. National airport received 11.5 inches of snow and some locations in Prince Georges county to the east of D.C. received up to 17 inches of snow. A storm like this was unheard of in the D.C. area in the fall and the city and surrounding areas became completely paralyzed." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 On 10/24/2011 at 7:47 PM, H2O said: There is really nothing to see here. No snow in Oct on average so let's keep it real. its a wacked solution even if both euro/gfs are similar. i'd say it trends nw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 12Z GFS looks like all rain in the DC metro to me with greater than 3000 feet above the surface > 0C at IAD...the 12Z Euro solution would lead me to believe the rain might end with a change to or mix with some snow, very light though, in the N/W suburbs. Wouldn't stick but it would look nice coming down. 12Z Euro verbatim, the higher elevations in W MD/PA and WV could see some heavier stuff with possible accumulations...they'd see nothing from the GFS. I think it's interesting to look at, because if in the small chance it does turn out to snow in the DC area, there is something to learn here. Just because something has a low probability of occurring doesn't mean you ignore it...as others have pointed out, it HAS snowed in DC in Oct. so it is a physical possibility. Will it? I don't know, that's why I'm watching. If this was Sept. I'd agree that just because it's Sept. means it won't snow, but the ones dismissing it simply because it's Oct. are just wrong IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 On 10/24/2011 at 7:52 PM, RodneyS said: Thanks. That storm is the all-time DC autumn blockbuster, even though it wasn't that bad to the west of the city. According to-- http://www.colinbeav...Snowstorms.html -- " . . . a completely unforecasted low pressure bombed off the North Carolina coast and produced a mesoscale convective snow band that passed through southern Maryland and the Washington, D.C. area. National airport received 11.5 inches of snow and some locations in Prince Georges county to the east of D.C. received up to 17 inches of snow. A storm like this was unheard of in the D.C. area in the fall and the city and surrounding areas became completely paralyzed." I think Brian Korty at HPC did put out 2-4 inches for the Veteran's day storm on his mid shift but 24 hrs before the event now one was predicting it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 On 10/24/2011 at 8:29 PM, ohleary said: 12Z GFS looks like all rain in the DC metro to me with greater than 3000 feet above the surface > 0C at IAD...the 12Z Euro solution would lead me to believe the rain might end with a change to or mix with some snow, very light though, in the N/W suburbs. Wouldn't stick but it would look nice coming down. 12Z Euro verbatim, the higher elevations in W MD/PA and WV could see some heavier stuff with possible accumulations...they'd see nothing from the GFS. I think it's interesting to look at, because if in the small chance it does turn out to snow in the DC area, there is something to learn here. Just because something has a low probability of occurring doesn't mean you ignore it...as others have pointed out, it HAS snowed in DC in Oct. so it is a physical possibility. Will it? I don't know, that's why I'm watching. If this was Sept. I'd agree that just because it's Sept. means it won't snow, but the ones dismissing it simply because it's Oct. are just wrong IMO. dismissing it because it's oct is only one part of it. sometimes i wonder if anyone reads each others posts here. just look how much we have go wrong in complicated setups EVERY YEAR during prime winter. the OCT part is only a part of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Jason asked me to write something for CWG on it tomorrow or Wed but I have a scheduling conflict Wed so I'll be writing something on the "threat" tomorrow. Right now, I'm not impressed very much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Snow in October on a La Nina year. I DO NOT THINK SO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 On 10/24/2011 at 8:35 PM, Ian said: dismissing it because it's oct is only one part of it. sometimes i wonder if anyone reads each others posts here. just look how much we have go wrong in complicated setups EVERY YEAR during prime winter. the OCT part is only a part of it. Why are you so defensive about everything lately? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 On 10/24/2011 at 10:37 PM, wxtrix said: image I'm pretty sure DT isn't allowed to post this (being from the European model), especially publicly. Last I checked, he doesn't officially receive any of our products, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 On 10/24/2011 at 11:00 PM, Ellinwood said: I'm pretty sure DT isn't allowed to post this (being from the European model), especially publicly. Last I checked, he doesn't officially receive any of our products, either. guess you better take that up with DT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 On 10/24/2011 at 11:00 PM, Ellinwood said: I'm pretty sure DT isn't allowed to post this (being from the European model), especially publicly. Last I checked, he doesn't officially receive any of our products, either. Probably via one of the AccuWx folks or something. May not be directly from him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 On 10/24/2011 at 10:37 PM, wxtrix said: deleted by wxtrix Thank you On 10/24/2011 at 11:02 PM, mapgirl18 said: guess you better take that up with DT I'm going to have my superiors take a look at it in the morning. On 10/24/2011 at 11:05 PM, Kmlwx said: Probably via one of the AccuWx folks or something. May not be directly from him. Directly or not, reposting is not allowed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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