LithiaWx Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 DCA : -0.2 NYC : -0.4 BOS : -0.2 Edit : MariettaWx = Hawksfan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 BOS: +1.0 NYC: +.8 DCA: +.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 DCA: -1.5 NYC: -0.7 BOS: -0.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 BOS: +1.7F NYC: +1.0F DCA: +0.5F Total: +3.2F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted November 2, 2011 Share Posted November 2, 2011 DCA: +0.1 NYC: +0.4 BOS: +0.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted November 2, 2011 Share Posted November 2, 2011 Contest (1971-2000) anomalies will vary from 1981-2010 reported anomalies by +0.9 (DCA), +0.6 (NYC) and --0.2 (BOS). In other words, it has warmed up by those amounts in DC and NYC and cooled by 0.2 in Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted November 5, 2011 Share Posted November 5, 2011 After four days, contest anomalies were: DCA ... -1.0 NYC ... -1.4 BOS ... -0.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 Updated through six days ... DCA ... -2.4 NYC ... -3.0 BOS ... -1.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 let me know if I did this wrong Roger through 9 days: BOS: 2.3C adjusted to +2.1C 1971-2000 NYC: .1C adjusted to +.7C 1971-2000 DCA: -1.7C adjsuted to -.8C through the 16th based on NWS: BOS: +4.1 NYC: +2.4 DCA: +0.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 That's correct ^ ^ ^ in my estimation, I was going to post those with the comment that today (10th) is coming in around +5 by end of day for BOS and NYC and possibly zero for DCA, due to falling temps this evening (DCA for today on +2 = +3 at present), so the monthly values posted will probably change slightly to about -0.6, +1.1 and +2.7 after today. If Mallow reads this, will we continue with the "old" normals in December and change in January, or will we change in December? I would vote change in December because it's the new winter season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 That's correct ^ ^ ^ in my estimation, I was going to post those with the comment that today (10th) is coming in around +5 by end of day for BOS and NYC and possibly zero for DCA, due to falling temps this evening (DCA for today on +2 = +3 at present), so the monthly values posted will probably change slightly to about -0.6, +1.1 and +2.7 after today. If Mallow reads this, will we continue with the "old" normals in December and change in January, or will we change in December? I would vote change in December because it's the new winter season. To me it doesn't matter, but shouldn't we keep the old normals until January since that would be the 12 month forecast and then switch in January for the new contest period. Side note, the month still looks torchy and doesn't look to end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 MJO is flying around the Octant ring but the +AO and raging pacific jet just don't want to submit yet. Figured the ridge axis would supress enough to allow a negative departure in BOS but that idea seems screwed at this point, there is no resistance up north at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 I fear for my lead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 ....I'm hoping there is a cool down late in the month. Current anomalies match my current "monthly" forecast anomalies. Will go up more... hope they fall back down late in month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 I fear for my lead. DCA is the key.. I need it to finish very near or above my +.2. Winning 2/3 cities isn't going to cut it especially if NYC and BOS are 2-3F warmer than I guessed and most of the points are in that first standard deviation. Right now DCA is -1.1 for the month (1971-2000). Through wednesday they should be at near +1.2 and then it gets cool again. Maybe back down almost to 0 to -1 through Saturday before the next warm shot on the models. Through the ~24th or so we might be looking at around +1 at DCA and then it will hinge on the last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 After 14 days ... DCA .. +0.4 NYC .. +2.1 BOS .. +3.8 (est) high point or resting place? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 +18 at BOS today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 BOS +5.2 thru the 16th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 The previous avatar is the hot spot, but in the weather world ... estimates include today's negative anomalies ... DCA ... +0.9 NYC ... +2.5 BOS ... +4.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Based on NWS through Friday NYC: +2.4 DCA: +.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 predicted based on NWS through the 26th BOS: +3.3 NYC: +3.3 DCA: +2.0 I think Boston's forecast looks a little too cold IMO so I wouldn't be surprised if they were more like upper 3s. Then the last 4 days of the month look warm, especially in Boston. So I'd expect the end of the month to look something like BOS: +4 NYC: +3.5 DCA: +2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Going to be a close one I need DC to warm up a bit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 After 23 days ... DCA .. +2.3 NYC .. +2.9 BOS .. +4.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 new thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Anomalies through today ... estimating for today's reported departures of about +12 (DC, NYC) and +4 (Bos). The values through 26 days were +2.6, +3.5, +4.1 DCA ... +2.9 NYC ... +3.8 BOS ... +4.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 through the 28th DC + 2.6 NYC + 3.7 BOS + 4.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Contest anomalies through 29 days with my estimates for the final figures (midnight lows today could drag down current daily figures which are already below monthly trend for DCA and NYC and well above for BOS) DCA ... +3.8 (+3.7) NYC ... +4.5 (+4.4) BOS ... +5.2 (+5.4) that cold start is now a distant memory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 :-( ouch.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Final values turned out to be DCA ... +3.7 NYC ... +4.8 BOS ... +5.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 I'm pretty sure Iceberg won it! I think I finished either 2nd or 3rd. Have to wait for Mallow to confirm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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