§ November Forecast Contest, Tropics §

[Srain]

No he doesn't.

Spoiled sport...

[k***]

my july win was huge but i dont think i entered after august

[Roger Smith]

Somewhat crude alternate scoring for this contest (just in case) ...

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In case we have to wait for a while longer, I had a look at the contest with a simpler scoring system and came up with the following tables. The names are left in alphabetical order and I just indicate the top ten rankings in each category (seasonal and monthly) as well as listing the top ten contest scores using this method. Mallow's method might give us different winners, but this does give you some idea how you did anyway.

As you know, the annual count was adjusted from (18,6,3) to (19,7,3) as one tropical storm was added in September, and one former tropical storm became a minimal hurricane in the same month. I have a hunch this is why we didn't see a more timely validation of the forecasts, it presents various scoring headaches. Do we go with the count as we knew it to be during the contest period, or the adjusted? I have scored on two different assumptions. We'll see if it makes any difference. Since I didn't totally understand Mallow's system, I used a simpler one. But it has the same general weighting.

For the annual contest, I gave 25% of total marks for the initial forecast, and 10% for the (made in) July prediction, 7% for August, 5% for September, 2% for October, and 1% for November. That all adds up to 50% of the total for the contest. My scoring system is simple. You start with 25 points in the annual prediction and lose one for each count-error. For July, and the other months, the reduction is a half point per count-error. These point totals are then summed to determine the rank order of season forecasts. Two sets are issued, one for the adjusted count, and one for the count we thought was valid on November 1st. These scores are almost all the same until near the end because most of us were too low on annual count and too high on hurricanes. This meant that the scoring errors cancelled out in almost every case. (example, you predict 16,8,4 ... your error is 3,1,1 for the revised count and 2.2.1 for the assumed count.) Later season scores could have gone negative but were set at 0.0 if so, my philosophy on the last two months was to treat them as bonus months for those who got the seasonal totals correct or nearly so, and most of the scores for October and November's seasonal totals (which reflect the revised total situation) are very low or zero anyway. Seasonal scores are totalled and ranked only if the forecaster had an initial seasonal forecast.

Then for the monthly part of the contest, I used maximum scores of 3 for June, 7 for July, 12 for August, 15 for September, 10 for October and 3 for November. These are arbitrary but attempt to follow Mallow's weighting of months. Your score for each month is that maximum score minus one point per error in count of each type of storm. For example, if in August (7,2,2) your forecast was 5,3,1, then you had a total of 4 error points and lost 4 points, scoring 8 /12, Decimal forecasts are scored as intended and rounded to the nearest decimal. For September, I decided to simplify matters and score from the revised count of 6,4,1 (this was originally scored as 5,3,1).

Here are the scores for all contestants who entered any part of the contest, any month missed scores zero in the seasonal but loses all points represented by the storms that occurred in the monthly.

Seasonal storm totals -- scores -- adjusted and pre-adjusted in brackets (**)

FORECASTER ..... JUN (25%) ..... JUL (10%) ..... AUG (7%) ..... SEP (5%) ..... OCT (2%) ..... NOV (1%) ..... TOTAL (rank)

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Normal ...................... 17.2 (18.4) ..... 6.1 (6.7) ..... 3.1 (3.7) ..... 1.1 (1.7) ..... 0.0 (0.0) ..... 0.0 (0.0) ....... 27.5 (30.5)

Consensus ................. 18.5 (18.5) ..... 6.8 (6.8) ..... 4.1 (4.1) ..... 3.7 (2.7) ..... 0.0 (0.0) ..... 0.0 (0.5) ....... 33.1 (32.6)

am19psu .................. 19.0 (19.0) ..... 7.5 (7.5) ..... 5.0 (4.0) ..... 0.5 (0.0) ..... 0.0 (0.0) ..... 0.0 (0.8) ....... 32.0 (31.3)

bronxx ...................... 17.0 (17.0) ..... -- .. -- ..

Candyman (CSGA) .... 18.6 (18.6) ..... 6.8 (6.8) ..... 3.8 (3.8) ..... 1.8 (1.8) ..... 0.7 (0.0) ..... 0.0 (1.0) ..... 31.7 (32.0)

CUmet ...................... 19.0 (19.0) ..... 6.5 (6.5) ..... 3.5 (3.5) ..... 2.0 (1.0) ..... 0.2 (0.0) ..... --- .. --- ....... 31.2 (30.0)

Cyclonic Junkie ......... 18.0 (18.0) ..... 6.5 (6.5) ..... -- .. -- ..

DerekZ ..................... 18.0 (18.0) ..... 6.5 (6.5) ..... 4.0 (4.0) ..... 3.0 (2.0) ..... 0.0 (0.0) ..... 0.0 (0.5) ....... 31.5 (31.0)

Ed Lizard (Mahmoud) . 18.7 (18.7) ..... 7.4 (7.4) ..... 4.0 (4.0) ..... 3.8 (2.8) ..... 0.0 (0.0) ..... 0.0 (0.0) ....... 33.9 (32.9) .. (7)

Ellinwood .................. 20.0 (20.0) ..... 7.5 (7.5) ..... 4.3 (4.3) ..... 4.5 (4.0) ..... 0.5 (0.5) ..... 0.1 (0.9) ....... 36.9 (37.2) .. (2,1)

Flwxwatcher45 .......... 17.0 (17.0) ..... 6.0 (6.0) ..... -- .. --

gtg947h .................... 21.0 (21.0) ..... 8.0 (6.0) ..... 4.5 (5.5) ..... 4.0 (4.0) ..... 0.2 (0.2) ..... --- ..--- .......... 37.9 (36.9) .. (1,2)

hawksfan (Mariettawx)... --... -- ............-- ... -- ....... 4.0 (4.0) ..... 3.5 (3.5) ..... 0.0 (0.0) ..... 0.0 (1.0)

icebreaker5221 ......... 17.0 (17.0) ..... 6.0 (6.0) ..... 4.0 (4.0) ..... -- .. -- ....... 0.5 (0.5) ..... 0.0 (1.0) ....... 27.5 (28.5)

inudaw ...................... 18.7 (18.7) ..... 6.9 (6.9) ..... 3.9 (3.9) ..... 3.6 (3.6) ..... 0.4 (0.4) ..... 0.1 (0.9) ..... 33.6 (34.4) .. (8)

jackfrost ........................ --... -- ............-- ... -- ....... 3.5 (3.5)

JonathanBelles .......... 19.0 (19.0) ..... 7.0 (7.0) ..... 5.5 (5.5)

k**** ........................ 19.7 (19.7) ..... 2.5 (3.5) ..... 2.5 (1.5)

kab2791 ................... 19.5 (19.5) ..... 7.3 (7.3) ..... 4.0 (4.0) ..... 4.5 (3.5) ..... 1.0 (0.0) ..... 0.5 (0.5) ..... 36.8 (34.8) .. (3)

KokomoWx ............... 17.6 (19.6) ..... -- .. -- ..

Lake Effect King ....... 18.0 (18.0) ..... 6.5 (6.5) ..... 3.5 (3.5) ..... 3.0 (3.0) ..... 0.0 (1.0) ..... 0.0 (0.5) ..... 31.0 (32.5)

Mallow ...................... 18.5 (18.5) ..... 6.8 (6.8) ..... 3.8 (3.8) ..... 4.8 (3.8) ..... 1.1 (0.7) ..... 0.4 (0.6) ..... 35.4 (34.2) .. (5)

metalicwx366............. 17.0 (17.0) ..... 6.5 (6.5) ..... 1.0 (0.0)

MN Transplant .......... 20.0 (20.0) ..... 7.5 (7.5) ..... 4.5 (4.5) ..... 4.0 (4.0) ..... -- .. -- ... --- ... ---- ....... 36.0 (36.0) ... (4)

phil882 ..................... 19.0 (19.0) ..... 7.0 (7.0) ..... 4.2 (4.2) ..... 2.5 (1.5) ..... 0.0 (0.0) ..... 0.8 (0.8) ....... 33.5 (32.5) .. (9)

PSUblizzicane .............. -- .. -- .......... 7.0 (7.0) ..... 4.5 (3.5) ..... 1.5 (0.5) ..... 0.0 (0.0) ..... 0.5 (0.5) .......

PSUHazletonWx ........ 17.0 (17.0) ..... 7.0 (7.0)

Quakertown needs s.. 15.0 (15.0) ..... -- .. -- ..

rainstorm .................. 17.0 (17.0) ..... -- .. -- ..

Rockchalk83 ............. -- .. -- .. .......... 6.5 (6.5)

Roger Smith ............. 15.0 (17.0) ..... 6.5 (6.5) ..... 5.0 (5.0) ..... 4.0 (4.0) ..... 1.0 (1.0) ..... 0.0 (0.5) ..... 31.5 (34.0)

Srain ........................ 19.0 (19.0) ..... 7.0 (7.0) ..... 4.0 (4.0) ..... 3.0 (3.0) ..... 1.0 (0.0) ..... 1.0 (0.0) ..... 35.0 (33.0) .. (6)

Supercane* .............. 18.0 (18.0) ..... 6.5 (6.5) ..... 4.0 (4.0)

U Thant .................... 17.0 (17.0) ..... 6.0 (6.0) ..... 3.5 (3.5)

Wannabehippie ........ 18.0 (18.0) ..... -- .. -- ..

Weatherkid#27 ......... 18.0 (18.0) ..... 6.5 (6.5) ..... 4.5 (4.5) ..... 3.0 (2.0) ..... 0.5 (0.5) ..... 0.0 (0.5) ....... 32.5 (32.0) .. (10)

Wxmeddler (KMUwx91) 18.6 (18.6) .... 6.8 (6.8) .... 4.3 (4.3) ..... ---- .. ---- ..... 0.0 (0.0) ..... ----- .. ----- .... 29.2 (29.2)

wxmx ......................... 19.0 (19.0) ..... 6.5 (6.5) ..... 3.0 (3.0) ..... 3.0 (2.0) ..... 0.0 (0.0) ..... 0.5 (0.5) ....... 32.0 (31.0)

yoda ........................... -- .. -- ............ 7.5 (7.5) ..... 4.5 (4.5) ..... 2.5 (2.5) ..... 0.0 (0.0)

-- ranks above are for the revised seasonal totals, but the first two in terms of the November 1st known values are shown .. basically the order is reversed .. the

Seasonal

FORECASTER ............ JUN (3) ... JUL (7) ... AUG (12) .. SEP (15) .. OCT(10) . NOV (3) .. TOTALS (rank)

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Normal ................................. 2.6 ..... 4.4 ..... 6.6 ..... 11.1 ..... 8.5 ..... 2.0 ....... 34.2

Consensus .......................... 2.8 ..... 4.8 ..... 8.6 ..... 13.4 ..... 5.5 ..... 2.5 ....... 36.6

am19psu .............................. 2.5 ..... 4.8 .... 8.5 ..... 13.5 ..... 4.0 ..... 2.5 ....... 35.8

bronxx .................................. 2.0 .....

Candyman (CSGA) .............. 2.7 ..... 5.3 ..... 8.1 ..... 13.4 .... 4.4 ..... 2.0 ....... 35.9

CUmet .................................. 3.0 ..... 4.4 ..... 9.0 .... 14.0 ..... 6.0 ..... --- ....... 36.4 (10)

Cyclonic Junkie .................... 1.0 ..... 5.0

DerekZ ................................. 2.5 ..... 5.1 ..... 9.0 ..... 14.0 ..... 7.0 ..... 2.0 ..... 39.6 (1)

Ed Mahmoud ........................ 2.7 ..... 4.9 ..... 8.5 ..... 12.5 ..... 4.0 ..... 2.0 ..... 34.6

Ellinwood .............................. 2.6 ..... 5.0 ..... 8.5 ..... 13.0 ..... 5.5 ..... 2.8 ..... 37.4 (6t)

Flwxwatcher45 ......................1.0 ..... 5.0

gtg947h ............................... 3.0 ..... 5.1 ..... 9.0 ..... 12.0 ..... 5.0 ..... --- ....... 34.1 (8)

hawksfan (Mariettawx)........... 0.0 ..... 0.0 ..... 8.0 ..... 12.0 ..... 4.0 ..... 3.0 ....... 27.0

icebreaker5221 ................... 2.5 ..... 4.5 ...... 9.0 ..... --- -- ..... 7.0 ..... 3.0 ....... 26.0

inudaw ................................. 2.7 ..... 4.8 ..... 8.6 ..... 13.2 ..... 5.7 ..... 2.8 ....... 37.8 (4t)

jackfrost ....................................................... 8.0

JonathanBelles .................... 2.0 ..... 4.6 ..... 8.8

k**** ..................................... 2.1 ..... 4.0 ..... 7.0

kab2791 .............................. 2.7 ..... 5.1 ..... 9.0 ..... 12.0 ..... 6.0 ...... 3.0 .......37.8 (4t)

KokomoWx .......................... 2.5 ..... 0.0

Lake Effect King .................. 3.0 ..... 4.9 ..... 7.0 ..... 12.5 ..... 8.0 ..... 2.0 ....... 37.4 (6t)

Mallow ................................. 2.4 ..... 4.9 ..... 8.7 ..... 11.8 ..... 6.3 ..... 2.4 ....... 36.5 (9)

metalicwx366........................ 1.0 ..... 4.0 ..... 7.0 ..... ---- ....... 0.0 ..... ---- .......

MN Transplant ..................... 3.0 ..... 5.0 ..... 9.0 ..... 14.0 ..... ---- ..... ---- ....... 31.0

phil882 ................................ 3.0 ..... 4.3 ..... 9.0 ..... 13.0 ..... 7.0 ..... ----....... 36.3

PSUblizzicane2007 .............. ---- ..... 5.0 ..... 9.0 ..... 10.5 ..... 4.0 ..... 2.0 ....... 30.5

PSUHazletonWx .................. 2.0 ..... 5.3

Quakertown needs snow...... 3.0 ..... 0.0

rainstorm ............................. 3.0 ..... 0.0

Rockchalk83 ........................ 0.0 ..... 4.0

Roger Smith ........................ 3.0 ..... 4.0 ..... 7.0 ..... 13.0 ..... 9.0 ..... 2.0 ....... 38.0 (3)

Srain ................................... 3.0 ..... 5.0 ..... 8.0 ..... 12.0 ..... 4.0 ..... 2.0 ....... 34.0

Supercane* ......................... 3.0 ..... 4.5 ..... 9.0

U Thant ............................... 2.3 ..... 3.4 ..... 8.0

Wannabehippie ................... 3.0 ..... 0.0

Weatherkid#27 .................... 3.0 ..... 5.0 ..... 9.0 ..... 13.5 ..... 6.0 ..... 2.0 ....... 38.5 (2)

Wxmeddler (KMUwx91) ........ 2.7 ..... 5.2 ..... 8.2 ..... ----- ...... 6.2 ..... ---- ....... 22.3

wxmx .................................... 3.0 ..... 5.0 ..... 8.2 ..... 13.5 ..... 2.0 ..... 2.5 ....... 34.2

yoda .................................... ---- ..... 5.2 ..... 7.5 ..... 14.0 ..... 8.5 ..... ---- ....... 35.2

Contest totals (seasonal plus monthly)

Forecaster .............. Seasonal ..... Monthly ..... TOTAL ... rank

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am19psu ...................32.0 (31.3) ... 35.8 ...... 67.8 (67.1)

Candyman (CSGA) ...... 31.7 (32.0) ... 35.9 ..... 67.6 (67.9)

CUmet ...................... 31.2 (30.0) ... 36.4 ..... 67.6 (66.4)

DerekZ ..................... 31.5 (31.0) ... 39.6 ..... 71.1 (70.6) .. (6,7)

Ed Lizard (Mahmoud)... 33.9 (32.9) ... 34.6 ..... 68.5 (67.5)

Ellinwood .................. 36.9 (37.2) ... 37.4 ..... 74.3 (74.6) .. (2,1)

gtg947h .................... 37.9 (36.9) ... 34.1 ..... 72.0 (71.0) .. (3,5)

icebreaker5221 ........... 27.5 (28.5) ... 26.0 ..... 53.5 (54.5)

inudaw ...................... 33.6 (34.4) ... 37.8 ..... 71.4 (72.2) .. (5,3)

kab2791 ................... 36.8 (34.8) ... 37.8 ..... 74.6 (72.6) .. (1,2)

Lake Effect King ........ 31.0 (32.5) ... 37.4 ..... 68.4 (69.9) .. (--,9)

Mallow ...................... 35.4 (34.2) ... 36.5 ..... 71.9 (70.7) .. (4,6)

MN Transplant .......... 36.0 (36.0) ... 31.0 ..... 67.0 (67.0)

phil882 .................... 33.5 (32.5) ... 36.3 ..... 69.8 (68.8) .. (8,10)

Roger Smith ............. 31.5 (34.0) ... 38.0 ..... 69.5 (72.0) .. (9,4)

Srain ........................ 35.0 (33.0) ... 34.0 ..... 69.0 (67.0) .. (10,--)

Weatherkid#27 ......... 32.5 (32.0) ... 38.5 ..... 71.0 (70.5) .. (7,8)

Wxmeddler (KMUwx91) 29.2 (29.2) .. 22.3 ..... 51.5 (51.5)

wxmx ........................ 32.0 (31.0) ... 34.2 ..... 66.2 (65.2)

Rankings are for the actual seasonal totals (revised) followed by the totals we would have had from working totals Nov. 1st. Basically the contest was very close by this ranking system, and Kab2791 edged out Ellinwood using the revised seasonals, but the order of finish was the other way around using the totals we would have expected from November first.

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* Supercane may have become Superstorm93 after August (no overlaps, username changed)

I checked and found that Wxmeddler started as KMUwx91, and Ed Lizard started as Ed Mahmoud

The original forecasts made around end of May ...

[CandymanColumbusGA]

Wow, October really screwed me over

[Mallow]

This weekend I'll get this and the other contest all up-to-date. I promise.

Sorry for the delay.

[Roger Smith]

I can see by doing this where the change in numbers presents a practical problem in scoring. Just to be clear, the numbers we thought were in play in September were 5,3,1 and the numbers in the final official tally were 6,4,1. Those became known after everyone guessed for November. It makes the October and November seasonal guesses somewhat compromised.

My numbers may be a little confusing, basically, the season forecasts are based on the two different totals (19,7,3 vs 18,6,3) and the smaller one is scored in brackets. The monthly forecasts are scored using the revised September numbers. These tended to improve most of the forecast scores (not all) as most predicted about that number or even higher.

Anyway, it will be interesting to see how this rather crude scoring system holds up against the z-score method and the weighting that Mallow uses. I'm guessing it will be the same top ten but in a somewhat different order perhaps, so treat these as a pre-election poll. The official results come later.

[Mallow]

Using 18/6/3...

Congratulations, Roger!

[Ellinwood]

No idea how I finished 3rd in all of this, but I'll take it!

Congrats, Roger!

[Srain]

At least one of the 'tropical dudes' finished in the top 5... Congrats Roger

[kab2791]

Finished number 2. lol, don't know how I did that.

[am19psu]

At least one of the 'tropical dudes' finished in the top 5... Congrats Roger

at me, CUMet, and Jorge. Good work by us.

[Roger Smith]

Well, it was a strange year and I consider it a statistical fluke to end up in first, with just about the lowest score for seasonal storm count. So consider it a three-way virtual tie looking at the numbers in detail. Thanks Mallow, especially for choosing the pre-revised numbers.

[gil888]

Wasn't 19 the final # of NS and 7 for hurricanes?

[LakeEffectKing]

Wasn't 19 the final # of NS and 7 for hurricanes?

No...and Yes..........there is no "Q" storm...and I don't believe we are counting "post seasonal" revisions....thus 18 is correct...but we did have 7 hurricanes: from the NHC:

EDIT: I see that Nate was upgraded after the season, to a hurricane...thus contest rules mean that Mallow's original #'s are correct.

• Tropical Storm Arlene – PDF – KMZ
  
• Tropical Storm Bret – PDF – KMZ
  
• Tropical Storm Cindy – PDF – KMZ
  
• Tropical Storm Don – PDF – KMZ
  
• Tropical Storm Emily – PDF – KMZ
  
• Tropical Storm Franklin – PDF – KMZ
  
• Tropical Storm Gert – PDF – KMZ
  
• Tropical Storm Harvey – PDF – KMZ
  
• Hurricane Irene – PDF – KMZ
  
• Tropical Depression Ten – PDF – KMZ
  
• Tropical Storm Jose – PDF – KMZ
  
• Hurricane Katia – PDF – KMZ
  
• Unnamed Tropical Storm¹ – PDF – KMZ
  
• Tropical Storm Lee – PDF – KMZ
  
• Hurricane Maria – PDF – KMZ
  
• Hurricane Nate² – PDF – KMZ
  
• Hurricane Ophelia – PDF – KMZ
  
• Hurricane Philippe – PDF – KMZ
  
• Hurricane Rina – PDF – KMZ
  
• Tropical Storm Sean – PDF – KMZ
  

2nd Edit: Note my late entry of ONE monthly submission (by a few hours) cost me dearly in the final rankings....which made me mad...which made my kids tell me to stop being mad.....which made me beat my kids....which made me go to jail...

So if you don't want to go to jail, submit your entries on time!!!!

[Mallow]

2nd Edit: Note my late entry of ONE monthly submission (by a few hours) cost me dearly in the final rankings....which made me mad...which made my kids tell me to stop being mad.....which made me beat my kids....which made me go to jail...

So if you don't want to go to jail, submit your entries on time!!!!

Yup, you would've been sixth instead of eighth.

[LakeEffectKing]

Well, it was a strange year and I consider it a statistical fluke to end up in first, with just about the lowest score for seasonal storm count. So consider it a three-way virtual tie looking at the numbers in detail. Thanks Mallow, especially for choosing the pre-revised numbers.

Congrats Roger!