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§ November Forecast Contest, Tropics §


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  • 2 weeks later...

It's awkward ... if you allow the added hurricane into seasonal totals and re-do the monthly contest, then what's the logic on later seasonal forecasts that were made without this revised information? Almost everybody predicted zero hurricanes in November and went with the 6/3 hurricane forecast that was implied by that call.

I would say the only fair resolution is to do one of these two things, either (a) ignore the revision or (B) revise September and the annual totals, and then add one hurricane to every seasonal forecast made in October and November.

I think (a) would be less controversial. Not that it's a big deal ... but this is tough enough without having to predict revisions in NWS post-analysis papers.

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  • 3 weeks later...

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