Chicago Storm Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 Thursday, November 3rd: Hi: 47F Lo: 40F Overall Sky Conditions: Cloudy Max Wind Gust: 35MPH Rainfall: 0.23" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 Interesting system on the 0z GFS for next tuesday...won't start a thread for the system as a whole just yet but this run it really takes off one it phases with the northern wave dropping southeast out of Canada and the main sfc low runs from central OK to STL to the southern tip of lake michigan. Also, looks like its just cold enough for a narrow stripe of snow from DVN/cycloneville into WI. pretty nice looking phase.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 Interesting system on the 0z GFS for next tuesday...won't start a thread for the system as a whole just yet but this run it really takes off one it phases with the northern wave dropping southeast out of Canada and the main sfc low runs from central OK to STL to the southern tip of lake michigan. Also, looks like its just cold enough for a narrow stripe of snow from DVN/cycloneville into WI. pretty nice looking phase.. Man the phasing in the loop you attached is sure easy on the eyes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 looking closer...we would even get snow here as the low passes and 850mb temps crash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 Man the phasing in the loop you attached is sure easy on the eyes! the northern wave hasn't been there on the last few runs so its an interesting solution but who knows at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 Interesting system on the 0z GFS for next tuesday...won't start a thread for the system as a whole just yet but this run it really takes off one it phases with the northern wave dropping southeast out of Canada and the main sfc low runs from central OK to STL to the southern tip of lake michigan. Also, looks like its just cold enough for a narrow stripe of snow from DVN/cycloneville into WI. pretty nice looking phase.. cool loop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 cool loop Now that i know how to make them I will be doing that alot more this winter for short loops/model comparisons etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 i believe today is the first time i've seen snow in my point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 0.26" here with yesterday's rains. Sorta of a fail on the NAM and Euro runs from a couple of days ago that left us dry. Not sure why I was paying attention to the models anyway... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 Finally got a hard freeze in my yard this morning. I've had some light freezes up til now, but several tender plants were still green or even blooming. This morning there was heavy frost and water was frozen. I'm sure the plants were fried this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 still no frost or freeze here, will i make it to December? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 I couldn't have drawn up a much weenier 6z gfs.. cold after hr 132... little snow storm up north the night before opening of gun hunting season on the 19th.. ice fishing on the 21st. mid 40's leaving the drive way at 5:30.. get to the hunting land 4 more miles inland and temp 31.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 The 0z Euro bring a cold shot down late next week around the same time as the GFS. Looks pretty transient though on both models though. Based on the indices on Allan's site, both the GFS ens mean and the Euro ens mean develop a -NAO after D7 or thereabouts, although based off h5 anomalies it's not a classic-looking block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 i believe today is the first time i've seen snow in my point. got it in mine too had another hard freeze here this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 from LOT A MUCH GREATER THREAT OF RAIN COMES MON NIGHT THRU WED AS THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE GULF OF AK DIGS SE OVER THE DESERT SW SUN NIGHT AND MON THEN CROSSES THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS BY TUE MORNING BEFORE MOVING ENE TO THE MS VALLEY BY MIDDAY WED. COMPARED TO THEIR PREVIOUS RUN THE MODELS ARE ALL PRETTY MUCH IN AGREEMENT IN A SLOWER AND NOT AS DEEP UPPER LOW MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES OR THE MIDWEST THU NIGHT AND FRI. PROJECTIONS OF UPPER AND SURFACE SYSTEM TRACKS THAT FAR OUT IN THE FUTURE ARE FREQUENTLY SUBJECT TO ADJUSTMENT AS IS THIS THE CASE WITH THIS SYSTEM. AT THIS POINT IN TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA WILL STILL BE MILD MON AND AGAIN ACROSS THE SE PORTION OF THE AREA TUE AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY DROPS ACROSS NORTHERN IL LATE MON BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS NORTHERN IN AND CENTRAL IL MON NIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR OVER-RUNNING RAIN MON NIGHT...TUE...TUE NIGHT AS A SURFACE WAVE RIDES NE ALONG THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY AHEAD OF THE SECOND PLAINS UPPER SYSTEM. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY BY WED-THU THOUGH CURRENT THERMAL PROFILES AND THICKNESS PROGS SUGGEST WE MAY SEE SOME MIXED RAIN AND SNOW ON THE BACK END OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT WRAPS COLD AIR S AND SE INTO IT AS IT MOVES E TO THE GREAT LAKES AND/OR MIDWEST WED EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 25 °F at MSN this morning, coldest of the year. Already nearing 50 though, gotta love not having a snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 Stunning blue sky today. A perfect November day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 still no frost or freeze here, will i make it to December? Fun times...you have your own little microclimate downtown. Cromartie would be proud. Not to beat a dead horse... but ORD still hasn't dropped to 32F this Fall. It looks like the record will be broken...the previous latest 1st freeze was November 6, 1998. Records at ORD go back to 1959. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 still no frost or freeze here, will i make it to December? Looks like your next chance will be behind the system next week. Latest ECMWF shows widespread 20's, with 10's up north... GFS is warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 26 here this morning. Standing water left from the previous night's rains were all solid ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 From DVN... COLDER AIR BEGINS TO INFILTRATE WED AS SYSTEM PASSES WITH WRAP-AROUND LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLY MIXING WITH OR EVEN CHANGING TO BY WED NGT WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY N/W OF QUAD CITIES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 Holy mother of god at the pattern the 18z GFS suggests beyond this next storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 Holy mother of god at the pattern the 18z GFS suggests beyond this next storm. Is it good or bad that the 18z run is not advancing for me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 If you want to see a bunch of significant troughs one after another, then probably bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 If you want to see a bunch of significant troughs one after another, then probably bad. It depends on how far south the troughs extend. If they put me on or near the storm track, preferably a bit north of it, then I would definitely like it and will definitely be patient until the maps are up for the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 If they put me on or near the storm track, preferably a bit north of it, then I would definitely like it and will definitely be patient until the maps are up for the 18z run. I'm talking about an overall significantly amplified pattern, not just for you... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 Holy mother of god at the pattern the 18z GFS suggests beyond this next storm. 4 systems in the 10 day period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 I'm talking about an overall significantly amplified pattern, not just for you... I know, and I also know the current position this far out means nothing, but it is still nice to see the potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 4 systems in the 10 day period. Yup. Each with an inherently strong ML/UL jet to work with and perhaps LL jet as well. I know, and I also know the current position this far out means nothing, but it is still nice to see the potential. Idk, it just kind of irked me that the first thing you responded with was an IMBY post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 Idk, it just kind of irked me that the first thing you responded with was an IMBY post. does that alot.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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