A-L-E-K Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 such a boring stretch, still no real cold air here lakeside and none in sight. Par for the course with the last few falls, lets see if we have our annual active early december. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 DVN THURSDAY THE SURFACE LOW PASSES ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS...PUTTING THE AREA IN A NICE DEFORMATION ZONE OF PRECIPITATION. AGAIN THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN BEST AGREEMENT ...BUT EVEN THERE THE GFS IS FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF. DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS THAT WITH THE COLD AIR BEING PULLED INTO THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THIS SYSTEM THAT THERE MAY BE SOME PRECIPITATION TYPE CONCERNS. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT AS ALL RAIN... BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX POTENTIAL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 The lack of cold air shouldnt shock anyone. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 DVN THURSDAY THE SURFACE LOW PASSES ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS...PUTTING THE AREA IN A NICE DEFORMATION ZONE OF PRECIPITATION. AGAIN THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN BEST AGREEMENT ...BUT EVEN THERE THE GFS IS FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF. DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS THAT WITH THE COLD AIR BEING PULLED INTO THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THIS SYSTEM THAT THERE MAY BE SOME PRECIPITATION TYPE CONCERNS. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT AS ALL RAIN... BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX POTENTIAL. New NAM is on board to a certain extent... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 Impressive temp contrast over Iowa on Wednesday afternoon. 70 near Keokuk to the mid 30s at Des Moines! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 New NAM is on board to a certain extent... Ya the 0z run last night was the best looking for any snow chances, need a better phase with the northern vort up in Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 Ya the 0z run last night was the best looking for any snow chances, need a better phase with the northern vort up in Canada. Actually the 12z has some areas of 6-8 inches, per the dubious clown maps. Primarily E Iowa, NW Illinois into SW and SC Wisconsin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 Actually the 12z has some areas of 6-8 inches, per the dubious clown maps. Primarily E Iowa, NW Illinois into SW and SC Wisconsin. Well its cold enough....near DVN but those stupid clown maps are showing 10-12" for eastern IA and parts of northwest IL.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 LOL Im hoping we see no snow til Nov 21st because I will be out of town from the evening of Nov 12th until the morning of November 21st (so the full days of Nov 13-20). Going on a carribean cruise and really looking forward to it, but again, even though the long winter lies ahead, I dont want to miss any snow ha. Speaking of a long winter lying ahead, went to the park this morning it was just GORGEOUS. The Fall color is on its last legs yet its the most beautiful of the season. Took some pics. Makes me not even jealous at all of the northeast snowstorm. Winter wont get here until or after thanksgiving. You wont miss a beat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 Ya the 0z run last night was the best looking for any snow chances, need a better phase with the northern vort up in Canada. The new GEM backed off on the potential. Given that and the fact the GFS/ECMWF were never onboard, any small potential for a snow/mix there was is probably next to none now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 The new GEM backed off on the potential. Given that and the fact the GFS/ECMWF were never onboard, any small potential for a snow/mix there was is probably next to none now. Whatever chance of frozen pcpn we have will probably depend on the diurnal cycle. For instance, the reason why DVN sees a changeover but ORD doesn't is mainly because DVN sees the combined effect of the cold airmass and overnight lows whereas, per the 12z NAM at least, the pcpn at ORD is all during peak heating. That's all I can think of as a reason why DVN sees snow and ORD doesn't, other than the air mass moderating as it moves east, but the distance between DVN and ORD shouldn't really cause the cold air to moderate that drastically. If the timing changes so that the frontal passage is late evening, then I'd be a bit more interested. Anecdotaally speaking, expecting snow from a simple frontal passage never seems to work out but thats just my EC knowledge, maybe that doesn't apply out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 Whatever chance of frozen pcpn we have will probably depend on the diurnal cycle. For instance, the reason why DVN sees a changeover but ORD doesn't is mainly because DVN sees the combined effect of the cold airmass and overnight lows whereas, per the 12z NAM at least, the pcpn at ORD is all during peak heating. That's all I can think of as a reason why DVN sees snow and ORD doesn't, other than the air mass moderating as it moves east, but the distance between DVN and ORD shouldn't really cause the cold air to moderate that drastically. If the timing changes so that the frontal passage is late evening, then I'd be a bit more interested. Anecdotaally speaking, expecting snow from a simple frontal passage never seems to work out but thats just my EC knowledge, maybe that doesn't apply out here. System wraps in quite a bit of warm air (check 850 mb temps 72+ hours). Even if that doesn't happen, the winds will be blowing onshore off of a still warm lake. Best chance for any flakes mixing in is probably farther west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 Yeah I was never sold on flakes mixing in here. Even if the ingredients were better than what's shown we're still 60+hrs out. Still fun to see a few maps (especially the clown maps lol) show snow potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 Whatever chance of frozen pcpn we have will probably depend on the diurnal cycle. For instance, the reason why DVN sees a changeover but ORD doesn't is mainly because DVN sees the combined effect of the cold airmass and overnight lows whereas, per the 12z NAM at least, the pcpn at ORD is all during peak heating. That's all I can think of as a reason why DVN sees snow and ORD doesn't, other than the air mass moderating as it moves east, but the distance between DVN and ORD shouldn't really cause the cold air to moderate that drastically. While it's true the best chance would occur during the night due to the mentioned factors, my statement was based on another issue. Anecdotaally speaking, expecting snow from a simple frontal passage never seems to work out but thats just my EC knowledge, maybe that doesn't apply out here.< This really isn't a simple frontal passage, as there's an actual system in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 Just looked at BUFKIT for MSN for the Wednesday event. Looks pretty decent both on the GFS and NAM. GFS looks like snow mixed with rain, while the NAM dumps 4-5 inches. Snow begins in MSN in the NAM 6 pm Wednesday, only 51 hours from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 While it's true the best chance would occur during the night due to the mentioned factors, my statement was based on another issue. This really isn't a simple frontal passage, as there's an actual system in play. Simple frontal passage was a bad choice of words on my part. What I was generally getting at is that I rarely look for snow on the boundary when we're warm and then turning cold. Like, I'd rather be in the cold sector the whole time instead of in the warm sector and then hoping to catch a few flakes when the cold air rushes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 Simple frontal passage was a bad choice of words on my part. What I was generally getting at is that I rarely look for snow on the boundary when we're warm and then turning cold. Like, I'd rather be in the cold sector the whole time instead of in the warm sector and then hoping to catch a few flakes when the cold air rushes in. Welcome to the Midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 Welcome to the Midwest. I'll admit I've been spoiled by the coastal storms the past few years. Although on the coast winters can easily go one way or the other, and just as many years we get almost nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 I can see stars above me but it is most definitely raining Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 00z clown goodness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 Looks like November is gonna begin in southern WI with strong WAA aloft. Temps warming to well above 0 °C at 850, forecast to get to 10 °C by noon. Somewhat ironically, the WAA is going to lead to a cold night tonight since it got rid of the clouds, it's sinking below 40 °F in the area after being stuck around 45 °F for a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 00z clown goodness Looking forward to a cold wind-driven rain Wednesday night. Those clown maps are obviously way overdone, but I think there should be some wet snow flakes mixing in out in parts of Iowa late Wednesday. May be some wet flakes for Hawkeye if all things go well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 Looking forward to a cold wind-driven rain Wednesday night. Those clown maps are obviously way overdone, but I think there should be some wet snow flakes mixing in out in parts of Iowa late Wednesday. May be some wet flakes for Hawkeye if all things go well. If you divide that by 10 you might get something close to what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 I'll admit I've been spoiled by the coastal storms the past few years. Although on the coast winters can easily go one way or the other, and just as many years we get almost nothing. You will find out in a heartbeat, winter is much more reliable in the midwest than on the east coast. Way more winter, way less historic storms lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 November is the largest difference of any month in terms of average temp from the 1st to last day of the month. The avg high/low at DTW goes from 56/39 on Nov 1st to 42/29 on Nov 30th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 You will find out in a heartbeat, winter is much more reliable in the midwest than on the east coast. Way more winter, way less historic storms lol. Gotta cherish the big ones when they happen since they don't happen as often. Although Thunder can close his eyes and imagine he's home when Valpo gets blitzed with LES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 Gotta cherish the big ones when they happen since they don't happen as often. Although Thunder can close his eyes and imagine he's home when Valpo gets blitzed with LES. should feel just like at home on the roads too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 High potential for frost this morning in downtown Madison, 40.2° F on top of the weather building, and since this is a radiational cooling night it must already be in the 30s in the city. Dewpoint is around 35. I still haven't seen a good frost, and I'm sure many who live downtown haven't. There's a significant UHI here on radiational cooling nights, and Lake Mendota and Monona are still quite warm (lower 50s). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 Already at freezing here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 I can see stars above me but it is most definitely raining Reply to my own post but that was cool. It as clear out, but it was spitting rain. Maybe something to do with the falling temps, no idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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