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GLOV November obs/disco thread


snowstormcanuck

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Posted by ILN within the past hour:

... A record maximum monthly rainfall for November is set at Cincinnati OH...

As of 1 PM November 28... 7.55 inches of precipitation has fallen for the month of November at the Cincinnati Northern Kentucky International Airport. This amount breaks the record for November monthly rainfall in the Cincinnati area. The previous record was 7.51 inches set in 1985.

As rain continues to fall... this record will increase. A statement with the final record amount will be sent after the end of the month.

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The Ministry of Natural Resources has issued a flood watch for all of Southern Ontario.

Provincial Messages Issued for:

MNR Districts:

Algonquin Park, Aurora, Aylmer, Bancroft, Guelph, Kemptville, Midhurst, Parry Sound, Pembroke, Peterborough

Conservation Authorities:

Ausable Bayfield, Cataraqui Region, Catfish Creek, Central Lake Ontario, Credit Valley, Crowe Valley, Essex Region, Ganaraska Region, Grand River, Grey Sauble, Halton, Hamilton, Kawartha, Kettle Creek, Lake Simcoe Region, Long Point Region, Lower Thames Valley, Lower Trent, Maitland Valley, Mississippi Valley, Niagara Peninsula, Nottawasaga Valley, Otonabee, Quinte, Raisin Region, Rideau Valley, Saugeen, South Nation, St. Clair Region, Toronto and Region, Upper Thames River

Weather Situation

An intensifying low pressure system pushing northwards from southern United States will bring clouds and period of rain starting Monday evening in southwestern Ontario. Rainfall of 10-25 mm is expected anywhere from Oshawa westwards to Windsor today into tomorrow. Rainfall is expected to further intensify tomorrow into Wednesday for most of southern Ontario with amounts ranging from 40-60mm with some localised areas receiving in excess of 60 mm. Current forecast suggests that Sarnia, Barrie and Toronto could receive 60+ mm and Kingston and surrounding could get 50+ mm for Tuesday.

Strong gale force winds are expected to pass through the lower great lakes at 40-60km/h with sustained gust up to 80km/h from the north east tomorrow changing to north west as the system progresses eastwards on Wednesday. The system will produce rainfall from 10-20 mm for Southern Ontario on Wednesday before it start to pull out of the province by Thursday.

Risks

Stream flows in the southwest and southcentral Ontario are responding to recent rainfall as the ground is likely saturated. Additional rainfall is the amounts forecasted is likely to result in higher stream flows and localised flooding in southwest and southcentral Ontario. Forecast rainfall of 40 to 60 mm with isolated locations receiving 60+ mm meets the Surface Water Monitoring Centres Antecedent Precipitation Index model’s flood threshold criteria for the much of southwest and south central Ontario.

The strong gale fore winds could result in high waves and higher water levels for the Lower Great Lakes Region Tuesday and Wednesday.

A close watch on local conditions, and updated forecasts and warnings from Environment Canada is recommended.

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I was wrong on the clouds.

Almost totally blue skies to the north out the window...sun is shining bright into the house. Hopefully the clouds stay away so I can check out the northern lights later....

Things have cleared here too, it's beautiful out there. The CME still hasn't hit so it looks like we may have some pretty good timing.

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Someone should change the subtitle of this thread to "out like a lion"

Or maybe out like a unicorn or something....considering how unusual and weird the event is.

well said. This entire Fall has been abnormal what with the back-to-back blowtorch months of October and November. I did locate one other year (apart from 1975) where a warm November in Toronto was followed by a cold December and January, and that was 1963.

CFRB News in Toronto quoted the Weather Network as saying it will be a warm winter in Toronto with average snowfall.

http://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/storm_watch_stories3&stormfile=winter_outlook_2011__2012_211111?ref=ccbox_homepage_topstories

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Was that when we had a green christmas?

lol, 1 out of every 2 Christmases is green in Toronto. Maybe you do a little better out there.

http://www.climate.weatheroffice.gc.ca/climateData/dailydata_e.html?timeframe=2&Prov=ONT&StationID=42424&dlyRange=2003-12-01|2011-11-25&Year=2006&Month=12&Day=01

No snow in KW from Dec 8-31, 2006.

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lol, 1 out of every 2 Christmases is green in Toronto. Maybe you do a little better out there.

http://www.climate.w...Month=12&Day=01

No snow in KW from Dec 8-31, 2006.

Yeah. Toronto really does seem like southern Virginia. :sun:

Does the elevation have anything to do with the GTA wx bubble... kw is 1,079 ft and Toronto is only 249 ft.

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Yeah. Toronto really does seem like southern Virginia. :sun:

Does the elevation have anything to do with the GTA wx bubble... kw is 1,079 ft and Toronto is only 249 ft.

Higher elevation, closer to the Lk Huron snowbelt, away from the marine influence of the lower lakes. That's why KW gets more snow than Toronto.

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Higher elevation, closer to the Lk Huron snowbelt, away from the marine influence of the lower lakes. That's why KW gets more snow than Toronto.

Also one of the main reasons Ottawa sees so much more snow. Many think it's because it's further north. That is partly true of course, but it's largely due to the fact that Ottawa is away from the lakes. The cold air has nothing to modify as it moves south, unlike anywhere south and west of Barrie. Also there's the Ottawa valley effect. Toronto really is a screwzone for winter weather.

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Cyclone-

I hate when that would happen...LSE had lots of days like that last spring...clouds and then clear skies, just in time to kill my plants :)

More clouds here now...30F

I was hoping that since it cleared the auroras would make an appearance with the arrival of the CME, but the KP index has stayed below 5 so far.

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