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GLOV November obs/disco thread


snowstormcanuck

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Nicely done. Could you explain to me what caused the Nina's of the late 1990s to be so lackluster in comparison to the run of fruitful Ninas we've had lately?

Thanks man! :)

There are many reasons but I'll tell you the main points. 1997-98 was a very strong El Nino and the amount of OHC it released into the atmosphere is just unbelievable. Despite the 3 year Nina following that El Nino the atmosphere itself had still resembled a El Nino "look" thus the following years globally had looked more like an El Nino pattern despite an La Nina going on. The PDO had shifted into its cold phase from mid 1998 thru mid 2001 though the residual effects of the warm PDO were still in effect as it was in its warm phase since 1977 at that point in time. The heat released from the 1997-98 El Nino advanced towards the Pole as you can see coupled with the AMO shifting into its warm phase prior to the super El nino. This allowed the Troposphere to warm up unbelievabley across the Arctic thus the Stratosphere stayed cool and the NAO/AO had a hard time going negative. The Heat doesn't dissipate as you can see despite a La Nina going on. And things only got worse from there as you can see the consistent El Nino's that developed in 2002 thru early 2007 which kept the atmosphere very warm with all that OHC being released. It wasnt until 2007-08 when the atmosphere finally cooled and it resembled a more typical Nina. This is a good reason why 2007-08/2008-09 looked more like La Nina's than the late 80's and late 90's Nina events.

post-6644-0-00212600-1322412276.jpg

However 2000-01 resembled a bit more like a La Nina as the atmosphere cooled slightly.

Either way the late 90's Nina's were sh!t and I dont see them repeating for a while.

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Thanks man! :)

There are many reasons but I'll tell you the main points. 1997-98 was a very strong El Nino and the amount of OHC it released into the atmosphere is just unbelievable. Despite the 3 year Nina following that El Nino the atmosphere itself had still resembled a El Nino "look" thus the following years globally had looked more like an El Nino pattern despite an La Nina going on. The PDO had shifted into its cold phase from mid 1998 thru mid 2001 though the residual effects of the warm PDO were still in effect as it was in its warm phase since 1977 at that point in time. The heat released from the 1997-98 El Nino advanced towards the Pole as you can see coupled with the AMO shifting into its warm phase prior to the super El nino. This allowed the Troposphere to warm up unbelievabley across the Arctic thus the Stratosphere stayed cool and the NAO/AO had a hard time going negative. The Heat doesn't dissipate as you can see despite a La Nina going on. And things only got worse from there as you can see the consistent El Nino's that developed in 2002 thru early 2007 which kept the atmosphere very warm with all that OHC being released. It wasnt until 2007-08 when the atmosphere finally cooled and it resembled a more typical Nina. This is a good reason why 2007-08/2008-09 looked more like La Nina's than the late 80's and late 90's Nina events.

post-6644-0-00212600-1322412276.jpg

However 2000-01 resembled a bit more like a La Nina as the atmosphere cooled slightly.

Either way the late 90's Nina's were sh!t and I dont see them repeating for a while.

Thanks. I didn't realize strong ENSO regimes had such an impact on weather patterns long after they've demised. I do remember 1999-00 had quite a number of storms that tended to shear off to our S & W, which is typical Nino climo.

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Was checking into the availability of the upgraded dual-pol radar data and ran across this NWS DP training software. Pretty interesting stuff! Even though many of us might not get to use DP for quite some time it's nice to see how this new feature works. The Allisonhouse site lists dual-pol data "coming" in their high end ($275/yr) package. Who knows when that will be though.

The Winter Weather link is especially interesting given the time of year.

http://www.wdtb.noaa...treach/#nonmets

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Was checking into the availability of the upgraded dual-pol radar data and ran across this NWS DP training software. Pretty interesting stuff! Even though many of us might not get to use DP for quite some time it's nice to see how this new feature works. The Allisonhouse site lists dual-pol data "coming" in there high end ($275/yr) package. Who knows when that will be though.

The Winter Weather link is especially interesting given the time of year.

http://www.wdtb.noaa...treach/#nonmets

You can see dual pol data on radar scope right now, which is relatively cheap :)

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Was checking into the availability of the upgraded dual-pol radar data and ran across this NWS DP training software. Pretty interesting stuff! Even though many of us might not get to use DP for quite some time it's nice to see how this new feature works. The Allisonhouse site lists dual-pol data "coming" in there high end ($275/yr) package. Who knows when that will be though.

The Winter Weather link is especially interesting given the time of year.

http://www.wdtb.noaa...treach/#nonmets

Since you bring it up...

You're gonna like this teaser...

polehires.jpg

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LAF up to 3.66" of rainfall for November now.

Using the WL COOP for reference (data since 1901), if the models are right with this next system in which some have 2.00"+, it could be a top 5-ish wet November.

1) 8.71" - 1985

2) 6.89" - 1992

3) 6.56" - 1927

4) 5.41" - 1921

5) 5.23" - 2007

6) 5.07" - 1966

7) 4.88" - 1934

8) 4.79" - 1935

9) 4.78" - 1942

10) 4.71" - 1968

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Since you bring it up...

You're gonna like this teaser...

polehires.jpg

Nice! Hopefully AH makes it available soon. I spent over an hour taking the Winter Weather and Hail tutorials on the link I posted above. DP definitely makes a lot more sense now. I got a 100% on the quizzes at the end of the tutorials lol. Sorry for hijacking this thread, maybe I should have started a new one.

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You can see dual pol data on radar scope right now, which is relatively cheap :)

For whatever reason radarscope doesn't show up in Android Market on my Galaxy S. Have never had a problem finding anything else before there. I have the pykl3, which is just as good as radarscope, but unfortunately without DP.

Stayed cloudy all day here. Temps never budged from the mid 30s. Even though for days and days the models showed snow showers and flurries for us today, we received nothing.

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November rainfall totals and departures, through yesterday, across Indiana.

Evansville: 7.15" +3.27"

Muncie: 5.13" +2.01"

Terre Haute: 4.55" +1.11"

Shelbyville: 4.47" +1.11"

Lafayette: 3.66" +0.99"

North Webster NWS: 3.44" +0.44"

Indianapolis: 3.40" +0.06"

Fort Wayne: 3.17" +0.40"

Goshen: 2.99" +0.17"

South Bend: 2.95" 0.00

Indianapolis Eagle Creek: 2.86" -0.46"

Bloomington: 2.46" -1.09"

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Remember the GFS' suppression bias, and look at the Euro for next weekend, which at this point indicates a possibility of a winter storm in C Iowa through C Wisconsin.

I'm sure we'll get some precip in that time regardless, when is the GFS ever that accurate? :P

If we can clear these stupid clouds out we may see northern lights later. A CME should hit Earth this evening.

Trends aren't that good for clearing though. Still below freezing as of 10 am from the lack of sun.

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