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GLOV November obs/disco thread

snowstormcanuck

By snowstormcanuck,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
Posted

The only model "on track" is the GFS. The ECMWF isn't buying it(I don't care about the others in this regard). Until we get both on board, nothing is a done deal.

The split is between the pna. NCEP goes fairly positive while the ECWMF(and the ESRL) goes negative.

no nothing is a done deal. But it never fails. I see the same crap every stinking year on here. And its to the point now where if the GFS shows cold, its "well its the GFS" and if it takes away the cold its "see winter cancel". But I wasnt even talking about a model when I said "everythings on track". You have to look at a lot more signals than just models anyway. Basically as part of the annual norm on here, until people see snow in their backyards we are going to see exaggerated pessimism. And this includes "but this year is different than XXX", which, yes, I heard the same thing last November before most of the region saw another ~150% snowfall winter. In years past when I call out all of the unnecessary pessimism, its always said that Im such an optimist. Actually Im more of a realist (with a hint of optimism much of the time :) ). You will see that my attitude is just as sour as everyone else when we are dealt a rotten winter, but that has yet to happen on the boards (some of the SE MI posters may remember my foul mood following the Jan 1, 2008 storm), as we keep getting very snowy winters. What would happen if at this time in 2005, I started calling out "best winter ever" because of an abnormal snowy November (the only one the past decade here)? It would look ridiculous saying such a thing in November. And as it turns out, 2005-06 was the least wintry winter we have seen here in the last decade.

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AppsRunner

AppsRunner

Posted
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. You will see that my attitude is just as sour as everyone else when we are dealt a rotten winter, but that has yet to happen on the boards (some of the SE MI posters may remember my foul mood following the Jan 1, 2008 storm),

You are making it tough for me to completely forget that storm... just brutal here. February made up for it though.

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Chicago WX

Chicago WX

Posted
Posted

Looks like all systems go for torching today and tomorrow.

Harken back to November 2010, just a few days earlier than this one, 70º oh my...though it shouldn't rival that super warmth.

DY MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD  WTR  SNW DPTH SPD SPD DIR MIN PSBL S-S WX    SPD DR
21  66  38  52  13  13   0 0.00  0.0    0  9.9 17 220   M    M   8 18     26 200
22  70  56  63  25   2   0 0.88  0.0    0 15.0 26 220   M    M   9 13     40 220
23  56  27  42   4  23   0 0.02  0.0    0 10.1 24 300   M    M   3 1      32 330

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Chicago WX

Chicago WX

Posted
Posted

49.7º through yesterday at IND for this November. Big + departures for today and tomorrow before cooler weather moves in Sunday and early next week. A rough projection through the end of the month leads to 48.0º for this November, which would put this one at the 7th warmest. Final number subject to change of course...

1) 1931...51.7

2) 1909...51.0

3) 1902...50.2

4) 2001...49.5

5) 1999...48.8

6) 1994...48.6

7) 1913...47.7

8) 1990...47.5

9) 2009...47.4

10) 2003...47.3

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RogueWaves

RogueWaves

Posted
Posted

Love me some lake time and beach walks....but...not in november and dec unless its on ice and that's not happening anytime soon here its appearing. is what it is and lets just hope for a better pattern ahead. though were due for a dec where daddylongs is still drying his stained skidders on the clothes line most of the month. I'm at peace already if a sub-par winter ensues.

Glad to hear it. You cheeseheads are officially being side-lined this winter due to "uneccessary piling-on" 3 of the last 4 seasons.

Time for C. & E. lakes to get crushed..:whistle:

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hawkeye_wx

hawkeye_wx

Posted
Posted

Climate history says there is no reason to get excited or pessimistic about winter here when it is still November. We just don't get much wintry weather this month. We had a minor snow event at the end of November three and four years ago, but nothing since then. I also can't remember the last time we had a major snow event in November. There may have been something 25+ years ago when I was a kid. In recent years the trend has been to have a normal to mild, uneventful November with winter making a big arrival in early to mid December.

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Ottawa Blizzard

Ottawa Blizzard

Posted
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no nothing is a done deal. But it never fails. I see the same crap every stinking year on here. And its to the point now where if the GFS shows cold, its "well its the GFS" and if it takes away the cold its "see winter cancel". But I wasnt even talking about a model when I said "everythings on track". You have to look at a lot more signals than just models anyway. Basically as part of the annual norm on here, until people see snow in their backyards we are going to see exaggerated pessimism. And this includes "but this year is different than XXX", which, yes, I heard the same thing last November before most of the region saw another ~150% snowfall winter. In years past when I call out all of the unnecessary pessimism, its always said that Im such an optimist. Actually Im more of a realist (with a hint of optimism much of the time :) ). You will see that my attitude is just as sour as everyone else when we are dealt a rotten winter, but that has yet to happen on the boards (some of the SE MI posters may remember my foul mood following the Jan 1, 2008 storm), as we keep getting very snowy winters. What would happen if at this time in 2005, I started calling out "best winter ever" because of an abnormal snowy November (the only one the past decade here)? It would look ridiculous saying such a thing in November. And as it turns out, 2005-06 was the least wintry winter we have seen here in the last decade.

I agree with almost everything that you are saying. However, for the past two years, the pattern has deffinately favoured the Ohio valley, mid atlantic and western Europe for snow as opposed to places where one would expect to see a lot of snow. I mean, 2009-2010 was the most messed up winter i can remember, with DC probably averaging as much snow as Ottawa and Montreal, andseeing temperatures almost as cold in some instances. The negative AO played a huge role in that I gather as blocking kept northeastern North America (Labrador, northern Quebec) way above normal while London, England got buried in snow. Brett Anderson of accuweather seems to be of the belief that the lack of sea ice creates more blocking. I'm not overly pessimistic. It's just rare for Ontario and the eastern lakes to see a cold, non lake effect snowy winter following a mild November. 1975-76 is the only year I can find that defies that trend.

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
Posted

Glad to hear it. You cheeseheads are officially being side-lined this winter due to "uneccessary piling-on" 3 of the last 4 seasons.

Time for C. & E. lakes to get crushed..:whistle:

Eh, I dont know about that. We seem to be in this thing together lol. those same 3 of the past 4 years have crushed SE MI in snow as well, you guys in SW MI got screwed somewhat last year but lets just hope it is made up for by some epic LES this year, and that once again the whole Milwaukee-Chicago-Detroit-Cleveland corridor flourishes in synoptic snow :)

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
Posted

I agree with almost everything that you are saying. However, for the past two years, the pattern has deffinately favoured the Ohio valley, mid atlantic and western Europe for snow as opposed to places where one would expect to see a lot of snow. I mean, 2009-2010 was the most messed up winter i can remember, with DC probably averaging as much snow as Ottawa and Montreal, andseeing temperatures almost as cold in some instances. The negative AO played a huge role in that I gather as blocking kept northeastern North America (Labrador, northern Quebec) way above normal while London, England got buried in snow. Brett Anderson of accuweather seems to be of the belief that the lack of sea ice creates more blocking. I'm not overly pessimistic. It's just rare for Ontario and the eastern lakes to see a cold, non lake effect snowy winter following a mild November. 1975-76 is the only year I can find that defies that trend.

I know you guys up north have been suffering while weve been in heaven the past few winters. I really hope it changes (just not at our expense). I can find a few years where mild Novembers follow snowy winters, looking no further than 2010-11 (also the 75-76 as you mentioned, and to an extent 1964-65 and even 1998-99). But also a mild November by no means means a disaster winter, many years had near normal snow seasons. But Ive also learned that trends are being bucked and things are defying the odds in recent winters, so no reason to be worried just yet. 5 more months of snow :)

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wisconsinwx

wisconsinwx

Posted
Posted

Glad to hear it. You cheeseheads are officially being side-lined this winter due to "uneccessary piling-on" 3 of the last 4 seasons.

Time for C. & E. lakes to get crushed..:whistle:

At least many in Michigan get regular lake-effect snow. Except for the Gogebic region, lake effect is rare in Wisconsin. As for getting buried in previous years, sure, but before those last 4-5 years, we had a string of 4 out of 5 subpar seasons.

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RogueWaves

RogueWaves

Posted
Posted

:lol:

Eh, I dont know about that. We seem to be in this thing together lol. those same 3 of the past 4 years have crushed SE MI in snow as well, you guys in SW MI got screwed somewhat last year but lets just hope it is made up for by some epic LES this year, and that once again the whole Milwaukee-Chicago-Detroit-Cleveland corridor flourishes in synoptic snow :)

Just havin' a little fun with our buds to the west. I too want our region to share the wealth this year. And as soon as they're listening/reading about the 20-24" storm totals in our back yards (like we have about their back yards) I'll never mention it again..LOL! :scooter:

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