SpartyOn Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 Troll me like biatch if I'm wrong, for I'll surely deserve it, but I got a weird 1999-00 vibe going for this winter. Almost feels like we're due for a "bad" Nina. Yup! It's not just you bro. Don't think that it can't happen. I'm not judging anything based on the look of the next too weeks. Want to state that. But this might be a Nina like 99. It's possible and has me concerned! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted October 30, 2011 Author Share Posted October 30, 2011 Noted. That post was meant for you in particular. You're the friendly needler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 That post was meant for you in particular. You're the friendly needler. lol, I have a good memory for these types of things. I have no gut feeling either way about this upcoming winter. Second year Ninas on paper...are lousy here most of the time, though there are exceptions. Alas, my gut feelings, when I have them, are usually wrong anyway. Even if it is a stinker, it's been a really good run of winters here lately. Can't win 'em all...it will be whatever it will be I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted October 30, 2011 Author Share Posted October 30, 2011 Yup! It's not just you bro. Don't think that it can't happen. I'm not judging anything based on the look of the next too weeks. Want to state that. But this might be a Nina like 99. It's possible and has me concerned! Same here. Has nothing to do with the short-medium term pattern we're in. Just by looking briefly at the data, it seems like 1 in every 4-5 Ninas produces about 80% of normal snowfall. By my count, we're due for one. Obviously that's flawed methodology as it discounts important indicia, like the various teleconnection forecasts. But still, something that's nagging me a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 Torching the next few weeks. Maybe a dip or two in the pool yet. 99-00? Say it ain't so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 Troll me like biatch if I'm wrong, for I'll surely deserve it, but I got a weird 1999-00 vibe going for this winter. Almost feels like we're due for a "bad" Nina. Haha. As has been said many times before, once a seemingly normal winter rolls around with ~85-90% of typical snowfall, the members of this board will surely feel it more so that usual. You know that in the not too distant future there's going to be a string of back to back mid to lower 30" winters for ORD and DTW and it's not going to be pretty. Plus each additional winter with above normal snowfall (probably this upcoming one) is going to make that pill harder and harder to swallow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 Same here. Has nothing to do with the short-medium term pattern we're in. Just by looking briefly at the data, it seems like 1 in every 4-5 Ninas produces about 80% of normal snowfall. By my count, we're due for one. Obviously that's flawed methodology as it discounts important indicia, like the various teleconnection forecasts. But still, something that's nagging me a bit. This winter will have a clash of %. Have what you said but on the other hand we are looking very solid with a high end weak/low end mod nina and a 2nd year one at that. Unlike the 40s/50s and late 90s/00 we are coming out of a deep solar minimum as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 I meant '98 not '88 lol. so 3 yrs since '88 with abv avg snow in nov. weak and no correlation to how bad or good winter plays out here. Just proof fall sucks shat for decent snow in mke and its not just my roundhouse kicked brain memory. Its a noted theme around the entire region apparently. In Detroit, too, only 2005 (4.3") has seen above normal snowfall since 1998. If you go back to 1988, only 1996, 1997, and 2005 has seen above normal November snowfall. Heres a paste of what I posted in the Oct thread a few days ago. Its actually been VERY interesting to see how the average snowfall has been changing here. Novembers are getting noticeably less and less snowfall, but Dec-Feb (certainly when it counts the most) has been getting snowier. In the end, total snowfall has been increasing, so what more can you ask for? And lol watch this be the only snowstorm the coast has until 2 months from now. From a decade standpoint, avg November snowfall for Detroit had reached its all-time low mark in the 1990s when the avg was 1.5", but that mark was immediately broken in the 2000s when the avg Nov snow was just 1.1". The snowiest Novembers were in the 1950s when Detroit averaged 4.7", followed by the 1970s (4.5") and 1890s (3.9"). Hell even the pathetic 1940s, Detroits all-time low decade for snowfall in almost every category imagineable, averaged 2.6". On the flop side to the scant November snowfall of the 2000s, the 2000s then proceeded to become the first decade to have 2 months averaged more than 12" of snow, those being December (12.3") and January (13.3"). The 1930s-1960s saw just ONE month average in double digits, and that was Januarys in the 1950s (10.3"). So the heart of winter is getting snowier, while the Fall sees a slower start. I can deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 Im excited for the Mild November that we have in store... looks 5-15 degrees above average the first 10-15 days LOL Im hoping we see no snow til Nov 21st because I will be out of town from the evening of Nov 12th until the morning of November 21st (so the full days of Nov 13-20). Going on a carribean cruise and really looking forward to it, but again, even though the long winter lies ahead, I dont want to miss any snow ha. Speaking of a long winter lying ahead, went to the park this morning it was just GORGEOUS. The Fall color is on its last legs yet its the most beautiful of the season. Took some pics. Makes me not even jealous at all of the northeast snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 Torching the next few weeks. Maybe a dip or two in the pool yet. 99-00? Say it ain't so. As said elsewhere i would not mind a few more low 70s before real winter sets in. That is not impossible either as we recently saw in Nov 2008 when we had 4 days in a row with those kinds of temps around here. As for 99-00.. I would put that puppy away. Nina wont be nearly as strong and we are coming out of a deep solar minimum this go around unlike then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 Haha. As has been said many times before, once a seemingly normal winter rolls around with ~85-90% of typical snowfall, the members of this board will surely feel it more so that usual. You know that in the not too distant future there's going to be a string of back to back mid to lower 30" winters for ORD and DTW and it's not going to be pretty. Plus each additional winter with above normal snowfall (probably this upcoming one) is going to make that pill harder and harder to swallow. I know each year I keep pinching myself. Because its unreal how much snow our region has been seeing. Its rewriting our climatology basically. DTW is averaging 63" for the last 4 winters (which includes the near normal 09-10). Lets say we have another snowy winter this year, that would mean a running 5-year average is 60"+ which would be 20"+ above normal. 5 years is a full one-sixth of a "normal" cycle as defined by NCDC (30 years). Im sure the complaining will be off the wall. No doubt people have a very skewed perception of what is climo. (this goes forthe northeast as well). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 Its a noted theme around the entire region apparently. In Detroit, too, only 2005 (4.3") has seen above normal snowfall since 1998. If you go back to 1988, only 1996, 1997, and 2005 has seen above normal November snowfall. Heres a paste of what I posted in the Oct thread a few days ago. Its actually been VERY interesting to see how the average snowfall has been changing here. Novembers are getting noticeably less and less snowfall, but Dec-Feb (certainly when it counts the most) has been getting snowier. In the end, total snowfall has been increasing, so what more can you ask for? And lol watch this be the only snowstorm the coast has until 2 months from now. From a decade standpoint, avg November snowfall for Detroit had reached its all-time low mark in the 1990s when the avg was 1.5", but that mark was immediately broken in the 2000s when the avg Nov snow was just 1.1". The snowiest Novembers were in the 1950s when Detroit averaged 4.7", followed by the 1970s (4.5") and 1890s (3.9"). Hell even the pathetic 1940s, Detroits all-time low decade for snowfall in almost every category imagineable, averaged 2.6". On the flop side to the scant November snowfall of the 2000s, the 2000s then proceeded to become the first decade to have 2 months averaged more than 12" of snow, those being December (12.3") and January (13.3"). The 1930s-1960s saw just ONE month average in double digits, and that was Januarys in the 1950s (10.3"). So the heart of winter is getting snowier, while the Fall sees a slower start. I can deal The very snowy Nov 2000 ( snowiest Nov ever behind Nov 66 ) has pretty much skewed the data here for the decade. Overall though they have not been as bad around here anyways. Ofcourse years like 2004 got help from one decent storm like that Thanksgiving storm in Nov 04. The real crapper was Nov 2001. Nov 1995 was very decent and holds the #3 spot. The late 60s/early 70s saw a few decent Novembers. Ofcourse the lake has helped out in a number of cases such as with Nov 2000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 LOL Im hoping we see no snow til Nov 21st because I will be out of town from the evening of Nov 12th until the morning of November 21st (so the full days of Nov 13-20). Going on a carribean cruise and really looking forward to it, but again, even though the long winter lies ahead, I dont want to miss any snow ha. Speaking of a long winter lying ahead, went to the park this morning it was just GORGEOUS. The Fall color is on its last legs yet its the most beautiful of the season. Took some pics. Makes me not even jealous at all of the northeast snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 The very snowy Nov 2000 ( snowiest Nov ever behind Nov 66 ) has pretty much skewed the data here for the decade. Overall though they have not been as bad around here anyways. Ofcourse years like 2004 got help from one decent storm like that Thanksgiving storm in Nov 04. The real crapper was Nov 2001. Nov 1995 was very decent and holds the #3 spot. The late 60s/early 70s saw a few decent Novembers. Ofcourse the lake has helped out in a number of cases such as with Nov 2000. Yeah, Nov 2000 we had flakes in the air for like 8 days straight, but just a dusting at a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 La Nina giving a mild fall! snowpack season in long winters typically begins between november 10-20 around here nothing to be alarmed about yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 Torching the next few weeks. Maybe a dip or two in the pool yet. 99-00? Say it ain't so. Okay, first of all, 99-00 was only mentioned from a snow perspective. I don't see anyone supporting an idea of warmth/torchy winter except for you. Second of all, you can't use early leaf-falling season as a reason for a mild winter anymore. In fact, many trees seem to have leaves on them still. This was just one of those falls that had a long leaf-falling season. There were many trees that peaked early, and many that peaked late. Doesn't seem to be much to take from that observation. All you have left are your precious woolly-bear caterpillars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 November 2001 was brutally bad. The furthur it went in, the worse it got. Then by early December I had short sleeves on and the window down. Latest flakes ever for here i think. Amazing how almost 90" inches of snow still managed to fall that winter around here. First snowfall/flakes was on Dec 14th but not much else till Christmas day and ofcourse that is when all hell broke loose with that crazy historic LES event in the last week of the month that buried W.MI and western NY/Buffalo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 Thinking it might be time to create a separate thread for next weekend's potential storm and leave this for Nov analogs/ENSO status/etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 Next Saturday looks freaking wild! Wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 Torching the next few weeks. Maybe a dip or two in the pool yet. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 From Saturday the 29th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 RFD: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 RFD: was just looking at the same thing, this would indeed be a rain changing to snow event if this verfied...and after looking at the 18z run earlier I was wondering if it would show something like this with the nice looking nuetrally tilted s/w. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 was just looking at the same thing, this would indeed be a rain changing to snow event if this verfied...and after looking at the 18z run earlier I was wondering if it would show something like this with the nice looking nuetrally tilted s/w. Been watching this...could be first flakes for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 Been watching this...could be first flakes for some. And here is the reason why the GFS is weaker and warmer..not having the partial phase with the system up in Canada due to it being further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 The Great Lakes is way overdue for a big November snowstorm, on par with the 1913 and 1950 examples. Given what happened out east already, the atmosphere definitely seems juicy and primed for heavy snow. Whether it happens, well I guess we'll just have to wait another four weeks to find out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 Been watching this...could be first flakes for some. GEM looks interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 GEM looks interesting. can you link me to that? have a kinda new laptop and all my winter favorites are on that one lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 can you link me to that? have a kinda new laptop and all my winter favorites are on that one lol http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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