daddylonglegs Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Month to date... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
River Card Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 A excellent winter outlook from a respected met out of STL. He is very good with seasonal forecasts and it seems based on his thoughts, that an area from STL to IND and up the OH Valley could see a very solid winter. Here is the link, enjoy. http://www.fox2now.com/news/ktvi-dave-murray-long-range-2011-2012-winter-forecast-111711,0,4189511.story Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Sunday, November 20th: Hi: 54F Lo: 38F Overall Sky Conditions: Cloudy Max Wind Gust: 30MPH Rainfall: 0.00" Snowfall: 0.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Lots of rain this week for lots of people Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Lots of rain this week for lots of people Laying the tracks. 00z Euro has finally gone with a more winter like theme for much of the region towards the end of the run with what appears to be a developing winter storm in the Arklatex area at the end of the run with plenty of cold for it to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 A top 5 warm November looks to be virtual lock for Indianapolis. Through yesterday, IND is averaging 50.5º (+4.6º). Using the 0z MEX numbers through the 28th, IND would be at 49.8º...though of course the end of the run skews towards climo. As well, the forecast for the next 7 days from the NWS is solidly above average every day. The top 10 warmest Novembers below... 1) 1931...51.7 2) 1909...51.0 3) 1902...50.2 4) 2001...49.5 5) 1999...48.8 6) 1994...48.6 7) 1913...47.7 8) 1990...47.5 9) 2009...47.4 10) 2003...47.3 As for getting a top 10 warm Fall, if we guess that IND finishes November at 50.0º, this one will not make it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 As for Chicago, 46.3º through yesterday for November. Below are the top 10 warmest Novembers... 1) 1931...50.0 2) 1909...48.5 3) 2001...48.2 4) 1913...47.2 5) 1975...47.1 6) 1902...47.0 7) 1934...45.8 8) 2009...45.4 8) 1963...45.4 10) 1999...45.1 Projecting out through the 28th using the 0z MEX data, 45.3º would be the number at that point. Of course this is just a guess. Actual results will differ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Laying the tracks. 00z Euro has finally gone with a more winter like theme for much of the region towards the end of the run with what appears to be a developing winter storm in the Arklatex area at the end of the run with plenty of cold for it to work with. Yep saw that at 240hr and def alot of cold air on the north side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 12z NAM and GFS have gone a bit weaker and further south with the system rolling through tomorrow...heck, the GFS is nearly a miss for here. That being said, if cold air was available...the NAM would be a pretty nice track for a good snowfall. But that's fantasizing. Soon enough, soon enough... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 12z NAM and GFS have gone a bit weaker and further south with the system rolling through tomorrow...heck, the GFS is nearly a miss for here. That being said, if cold air was available...the NAM would be a pretty nice track for a good snowfall. But that's fantasizing. Soon enough, soon enough... I remember us having a great track around this time last year but not enough cold air. Not that you'd expect it this early but even a little bit could've pushed us over 50". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 I remember us having a great track around this time last year but not enough cold air. Not that you'd expect it this early but even a little bit could've pushed us over 50". Well we had our opportunities both early and late that we missed out on. Believe me, I'm more than satisfied with last winter...but yeah that extra inch would've been nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Looks like back to back 60 degree days here thursday/friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
River Card Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Good ol Henry talking some La Nina chatter...Maybe long legs will fry that turkey in his speedo on Thursday....it's possible. This to me is very interesting. Below is the SOI monthly values for 2010-2011. It shows that this time last year the SOI, which is the Southern Oscillation Index that gives you a strength of the El Nino/La Nina, values were very high compared to this year, which has values very low. That means the La Nina is not as strong as last year, and the implications may mean the warmth in the East could continue well through winter. We are planning on updating the winter forecast Dec. 1. I am just concerned that the warmth will last well into January, and looking at the European Monthly, which shows warmth overwhelming much of the central and eastern part of the country, the winter may be very different than last year with a lack of snow and cold. I do believe that snowstorms will occur, but it may be where is snows at 32 degrees that within a day or two, the snow is gone because the warmth comes right back. This is not a clear-cut winter forecast now. http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/meteomadness/why-so-warm-in-the-east-severe-wx-and-snow-in-the-forecast/58066 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Good ol Henry talking some La Nina chatter...Maybe long legs will fry that turkey in his speedo on Thursday....it's possible. This to me is very interesting. Below is the SOI monthly values for 2010-2011. It shows that this time last year the SOI, which is the Southern Oscillation Index that gives you a strength of the El Nino/La Nina, values were very high compared to this year, which has values very low. That means the La Nina is not as strong as last year, and the implications may mean the warmth in the East could continue well through winter. We are planning on updating the winter forecast Dec. 1. I am just concerned that the warmth will last well into January, and looking at the European Monthly, which shows warmth overwhelming much of the central and eastern part of the country, the winter may be very different than last year with a lack of snow and cold. I do believe that snowstorms will occur, but it may be where is snows at 32 degrees that within a day or two, the snow is gone because the warmth comes right back. This is not a clear-cut winter forecast now. I'm not following Henry's reasoning about a weaker Nina meaning warmer temps in the east. Unless I'm reading it wrong. By the way, you might want to post the link to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Good ol Henry talking some La Nina chatter...Maybe long legs will fry that turkey in his speedo on Thursday....it's possible. This to me is very interesting. Below is the SOI monthly values for 2010-2011. It shows that this time last year the SOI, which is the Southern Oscillation Index that gives you a strength of the El Nino/La Nina, values were very high compared to this year, which has values very low. That means the La Nina is not as strong as last year, and the implications may mean the warmth in the East could continue well through winter. We are planning on updating the winter forecast Dec. 1. I am just concerned that the warmth will last well into January, and looking at the European Monthly, which shows warmth overwhelming much of the central and eastern part of the country, the winter may be very different than last year with a lack of snow and cold. I do believe that snowstorms will occur, but it may be where is snows at 32 degrees that within a day or two, the snow is gone because the warmth comes right back. This is not a clear-cut winter forecast now. in other words, expect a cold and snowy winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 in other words, expect a cold and snowy winter. lol yes, big winter incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 lol yes, big winter incoming. It's always interesting how people are on the verge of cancelling winter when we're not even through November. It seems that even mets aren't immune. It's sorta like cancelling the snowstorm before the first flake falls but this is probably even worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 It's always interesting how people are on the verge of cancelling winter when we're not even through November. It seems that even mets aren't immune. It's sorta like cancelling the snowstorm before the first flake falls but this is probably even worse. I expect it here from the non-mets/general weenie crowd, but like you said...apparently a few mets are susceptible as well. It's really rather dumb, and without solid reasoning it makes it worse IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 in other words, expect a cold and snowy winter. All these winter outlooks are so stupid they cant even forecast 24 hrs out let alone long range..LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 All these winter outlooks are so stupid they cant even forecast 24 hrs out let alone long range..LOL Agreed. It's normal to not see any real accumulating snow until atleast a week into december around these parts. To be honest this november and fall has been eerily similar to last year. Hopefully the cold comes and stays int he next few weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Not canceling Winter!! We will get it. But the long range looks real ****ty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 reposted on the main board ottawa breaks impressive snowfall record http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/29929-ottawa-breaks-129-year-old-snowfall-record/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Agreed. It's normal to not see any real accumulating snow until atleast a week into december around these parts. To be honest this november and fall has been eerily similar to last year. Hopefully the cold comes and stays int he next few weeks Warm EC and Mid Atlantic just means a favorable track through the OV and MW. Expect Snow. Im just not sure about Snow sticking around for long time. I could care less if NYC gets nothing this year. They have had like 6-7 bombs the previous winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Not canceling Winter!! We will get it. But the long range looks real ****ty. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Warm EC and Mid Atlantic just means a favorable track through the OV and MW. Expect Snow. Im just not sure about Snow sticking around for long time. I could care less if NYC gets nothing this year. They have had like 6-7 bombs the previous winters. 07-08 lite would be wonderful. I suppose I should never expect to get over 80" in a season though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Late starts are the new norm. 2009 was Cleveland's least snowy start to winter, yet the season ended with 59", still a tad below normal but still a decent season for a JFM only winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 07-08 lite would be wonderful. I suppose I should never expect to get over 80" in a season though. I remember 07/08...Snow...melt...warm..Snow... melt...etc. Ill take that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 I'm not following Henry's reasoning about a weaker Nina meaning warmer temps in the east. Unless I'm reading it wrong. By the way, you might want to post the link to that. I'm not following that the SOI is repsonsible for the strength of the Nina. If that was true, Kelvin waves, MJO activity, Angular Momentum, etc. wouldn't need to be followed. Not canceling Winter!! We will get it. But the long range looks real ****ty. What long range are you looking at? GFS and it's ensembles show a cold 10-15 day anomaly, not to mention that arctic blast the ECM has around Day 8-9. Keep dreaming, cromartie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Just spent almost 3hrs raking, burning, mulching. Fantastic day to do it with light winds, sun, and temps in the low 50s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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