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GLOV November obs/disco thread


snowstormcanuck

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JB apparently continues to draw comparisions to the way the pattern evolved at this time in November 1950 and November 1974. Only thing is, both Novembers were a lot cooler than this one has been so far.

November 1950 saw an incredible snowstorm around the 25th, while early December 1974 saw a big storm for places in Michigan, but nothing much for Toronto. He thinks a big trough will develop in the east around American Thanksgiving week.

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Just cherry picking two sites, IND and ORD, but here's where Fall stands this year versus last year at this time (9/1 through 11/15 for both sites).

IND

2010: 61.1º

2011: 59.1º

ORD

2010: 57.7º

2011: 56.4º

Breaking it down further by months...

IND

Sep 2010: 70.4º

Sep 2011: 66.0º

Oct 2010: 58.1º

Oct 2011: 55.7º

Nov 2010: 48.5º (thru 11/15)

Nov 2011: 52.2º (thru 11/15)

ORD

Sep 2010: 65.1º

Sep 2011: 62.2º

Oct 2010: 56.0º

Oct 2011: 54.9º

Nov 2010: 46.1º (thru 11/15)

Nov 2011: 48.1º (thru 11/15)

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NWS CLE has added a chance of thunder for the snow belt areas tomorrow and tomorrow night... here is the point-click forecast for Erie, PA.

Thursday: A chance of rain and snow showers between 10am and 1pm, then snow showers likely. Some thunder is also possible. Cloudy, with a high near 37. Windy, with a west wind between 21 and 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

Thursday Night: Snow showers likely, mainly before midnight. Some thunder is also possible. Cloudy, with a low around 29. Breezy, with a west wind between 21 and 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

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I wouldn't put much stock in what the GFS is depicting for early December. 200+ hrs out isn't exactly trustworthy. But it would appear that a continuation of this pattern into December. Lol my grass is still very lush and green for mid November. Do I take advantage of the torch and cut it once more or put the Christmas lights up.. What a dilemma!

Shaking my head over the constant hype over this Winter. %€Hk La Nina! Sometimes its like a fat chick in the bar at 2am.

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I wouldn't put much stock in what the GFS is depicting for early December. 200+ hrs out isn't exactly trustworthy. But it would appear that a continuation of this pattern into December. Lol my grass is still very lush and green for mid November. Do I take advantage of the torch and cut it once more or put the Christmas lights up.. What a dilemma!

Shaking my head over the constant hype over this Winter. %€Hk La Nina! Sometimes its like a fat chick in the bar at 2am.

I need to yet again mow my lawn...crazy stuff, that PNA index and other wildcards seem to be showing face. Funny I remember the big nino event 2 years ago and how the NAO overpowered it, wonder if the AO/PNA wreak havoc over this nina? Brett Anderson will be poting the monthly euro today, be intersting to see what it depicts. Can't complain the weather has been splendid and DRY...awesome for getting outside and doing stuff. Makes up for the crap spring...natures balancing act.

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Wasn't JB doing that in November 2001 as well. History does like to repeat lol(hopefully for JB, this pattern ends in December).

He most certainly was. I remember he kept calling for cold, and forecast a major flip around December 21 that year. Huge bust. To be fair though, pretty much every weather outlet busted that year. It'll be interesting to see if Toronto/Ottawa can average warmer than November 2001 this month.

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I wouldn't put much stock in what the GFS is depicting for early December. 200+ hrs out isn't exactly trustworthy. But it would appear that a continuation of this pattern into December. Lol my grass is still very lush and green for mid November. Do I take advantage of the torch and cut it once more or put the Christmas lights up.. What a dilemma!

Shaking my head over the constant hype over this Winter. %€Hk La Nina! Sometimes its like a fat chick in the bar at 2am.

Cut it now. Tonight will go down to 26-28 degrees it will kill the growth for sure

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