Hoosier Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Maybe something to watch for next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Maybe something to watch for next weekend. just nuts on the 12z GFS lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Definitely something worth watching in future model runs towards next weekend. 12z GFS actually showing some decent instability associated with that powerful trough being dropped across the Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 You thinking of a big line. Remember the 2002 outbreak in western ohio. Not thinking anything specific right now, but that setup could be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 Only one, and barely above avg (3.7) snowfall for the month of nov since 1988. Not too surprising with a warm LM and the avg. is prob a little skewed by months that were decently above.. But damn you would think we could have lucked out with one decent system in the last 13 yrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 Only one (2005 with 4.6" avg is 3.7) above avg snowfall for the month of nov since 1988. Not too surprising with a warm LM and the avg. is prob a little skewed by months that were decently above.. But damn you would think we could have lucked out with one decent system in the last 13 yrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 Only one (2005 with 4.6" avg is 3.7) above avg snowfall for the month of nov since 1988. Not too surprising with a warm LM and the avg. is prob a little skewed by months that were decently above.. But damn you would think we could have lucked out with one decent system in the last 13 yrs. Check again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 Check again... check on my cookies lol - few beers in what yr did i miss, i went through again and only found 2005. also not much even comes close to avg in most yrs dec 1st 2006 had the quick 10"+ hitter. and went on to have less than 1" the rest of the month and nothing after dec 4th-jan 13th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 check on my cookies lol - few beers in what yr did i miss, i went through again and only found 2005. also not much even comes close to avg in most yrs dec 1st 2006 had the quick 10"+ hitter. and went on to have less than 1" the rest of the month and nothing after dec 4th-jan 13th Your research makes me feel better about this November. It tells me I should not be too nervous if a November system busts or if they're all cold rain. I knew the last 5 years had no very good Novembers, but I didn't realize how rare it has been to have a decent November in the last 20+ years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 00z GFS continues the very nice looking trends with a strongly negatively tilted trough at H5 with a ~992 mb surface low centered around the Eastern KS/NE border by 18z Saturday next weekend... ...and then bombs it sub 980 mb by Sunday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 check on my cookies lol - few beers in what yr did i miss, i went through again and only found 2005. also not much even comes close to avg in most yrs '93 and '95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 This system has been showing up on the models for a few days now but the 0z GFS just brought it up a few more levels...a serious snowstorm and severe wx maker. 120kt mid-level jet, 80kt LLJ..60 dews..983mb sfc low. Yes it's one run and won't verify this exact way but felt I had to show these images as this would be a monster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 This system has been showing up on the models for a few days now but the 0z GFS just brought it up a few more levels...a serious snowstorm and severe wx maker. 120kt mid-level jet, 80kt LLJ..60 dews..983mb sfc low. Yes it's one run and won't verify this exact way but felt I had to show these images as this would be a monster. Just wow... Has that SW kick to the H5 jet that a lot of the sig svr events seem to exhibit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 This system has been showing up on the models for a few days now but the 0z GFS just brought it up a few more levels...a serious snowstorm and severe wx maker. 120kt mid-level jet, 80kt LLJ..60 dews..983mb sfc low. Yes it's one run and won't verify this exact way but felt I had to show these images as this would be a monster. The thing I do like with this potential that the recent ones haven't had, is the ridge being further East. This is allowing the return flow of moisture and warmth to ride Northward through the Mississippi Valley. Verbatim for this run would be a very big severe weather outbreak over a large area through the Middle Mississippi Valley. Certainly one to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 The thing I do like with this potential that the recent ones haven't had, is the ridge being further East. This is allowing the return flow of moisture and warmth to ride Northward through the Mississippi Valley. Verbatim for this run would be a very big severe weather outbreak over a large area through the Middle Mississippi Valley. Certainly one to keep an eye on. I was just talking to Fred about this and its easterly flow across the gulf ahead of this system so your not getting great trajectories into the plains and getting modified moisture making its way north, still decent though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 I was just talking to Fred about this and its easterly flow across the gulf ahead of this system so your not getting great trajectories into the plains and getting modified moisture making its way north, still decent though. Yeah I noticed that in the Northern Gulf, however I am noting more the Western Gulf where the deeper moisture is residing, there the trajectories are out of the SSE-S for a couple days leading up to the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 Euro in great agreement with the GFS on this thing. Baro posted this over in the C/W forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 Euro in great agreement with the GFS on this thing. Baro posted this over in the C/W forum. Id like to see the ridge axis a bit further East personally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 SPC already mentioning the potential in the day 4-8. A GREATER THREAT WILL LIKELY EXIST WITH A LARGER SCALE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION THAT WILL TAKE PLACE FRI/D6 INTO SAT/D7 FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING A POWERFUL MID LEVEL JET MAX OF 90-110 KT EJECTING EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND THEN NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY SUN/D8. WHILE IT APPEARS PROBABLE THAT SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM...THE PRIMARY PREDICTABILITY ISSUE IS TIMING OF THE TROUGH AND MOISTURE RETURN. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS MODEL SHOWS VERY ROBUST MOISTURE RETURN WITH MID 60S F BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS AS FAR N AS THE KS/OK BORDER BY SAT MORNING. THIS MAY BE AN OUTLIER SOLUTION AS THE ECMWF SHOWS A TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT FARTHER S INTO NWRN TX AND NEAR THE RED RIVER AT THAT TIME...WITH MID 60S ONLY INTO CNTRL TX. REGARDLESS OF TIMING ISSUES...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO RETURN NWD RAPIDLY ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...POSSIBLY BEING DRAWN NWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY BY LATE SAT. SHEAR PROFILES AS WELL AS FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS CURRENTLY PROGGED...WOULD CERTAINLY FAVOR AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF SEVERE POTENTIAL INCLUDING N TX...OK...KS...AR...MO. DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH SUCH STRONG WIND FIELDS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THIS EVENT IS 7 DAYS OUT...AFOREMENTIONED PREDICTABILITY ISSUES WITH TROUGH TIMING AND MOISTURE RETURN WILL FORESTALL ANY SEVERE AREAS UNTIL LATER OUTLOOKS. They also see the difference in the models with respect to the ridge axis, the further East it ends up the better the chances are for sufficient moisture return Northward. At the very least the Southern Plains states look to have a potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 SPC already mentioning the potential in the day 4-8. They also see the difference in the models with respect to the ridge axis, the further East it ends up the better the chances are for sufficient moisture return Northward. At the very least the Southern Plains states look to have a potential. Seriously got tingles from that discussion... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 '93 and '95. I meant '98 not '88 lol. so 3 yrs since '88 with abv avg snow in nov. weak and no correlation to how bad or good winter plays out here. Just proof fall sucks shat for decent snow in mke and its not just my roundhouse kicked brain memory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 Seriously got tingles from that discussion... It's still way early, plenty of time for things to change one way or another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 It's still way early, plenty of time for things to change one way or another. Probably just the mere fact that they mentioned tornadoes seven days out (Not that it was that unexpected) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 I think it's safe to say next weekend is going to be a pretty impressive event. Models have been very consistent in bringing a whole lot of mid and upper level jet support out onto the plains by Saturday. Looks like moisture return out ahead of all this energy will be pretty good as well. To me this has all the looks of a classic Fall storm, with plenty of severe in the warm sector, and heavy snows setting up northwest of the track. The Dakotas into northern Minnesota may be in for a heavy snow if trends continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 Honestly, if we have a system like that with wind fields like that, the moisture return being shown would probably be good enough for a significant outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 Im excited for the Mild November that we have in store... looks 5-15 degrees above average the first 10-15 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 I think it's safe to say next weekend is going to be a pretty impressive event. Models have been very consistent in bringing a whole lot of mid and upper level jet support out onto the plains by Saturday. Looks like moisture return out ahead of all this energy will be pretty good as well. To me this has all the looks of a classic Fall storm, with plenty of severe in the warm sector, and heavy snows setting up northwest of the track. The Dakotas into northern Minnesota may be in for a heavy snow if trends continue. Honestly, if we have a system like that with wind fields like that, the moisture return being shown would probably be good enough for a significant outbreak. In terms of the longwave beast day 5+, EC/GFS are quite similar. Major differences exist with the day 3-4 ejecting cutoff low out of the intermountain W. Trend with the last storm was slower and more cutoff with much of the cold air staying in the mtns. GFS suggesting that possibility,. Makes a huge difference with the evolution of the warm sector return ahead of the longwave beast day5 +. Hence why there is a 10+ hpa surface pressure difference between the EC/GFS...moist latent heat release and available moisture. EC: GFS (12Z): Note the much stronger cutoff across the lakes...and the resulting stronger push of dry air into the GOM as advertised by the 0Z ECMWF. 12Z EC will be interesting to see how it handles the evolution of the western cutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 Im excited for the Mild November that we have in store... looks 5-15 degrees above average the first 10-15 days La Nina giving a mild fall! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted October 30, 2011 Author Share Posted October 30, 2011 Troll me like biatch if I'm wrong, for I'll surely deserve it, but I got a weird 1999-00 vibe going for this winter. Almost feels like we're due for a "bad" Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 Troll me like biatch if I'm wrong, for I'll surely deserve it, but I got a weird 1999-00 vibe going for this winter. Almost feels like we're due for a "bad" Nina. Noted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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