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GLOV November obs/disco thread


snowstormcanuck

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tomorrow is going to be quite windy around here

from LOT

WEAK UPPER WAVE LOOKS TO

LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING BRINGING MODEST MID

LEVEL COOL ADVECTION FOR A SHORT TIME AND MAY SERVE AS A CATALYST

FOR MIXING TO RE-DEVELOP LEADING TO A RETURN OF WIND GUSTS. THE

CONCERN IS THAT THE LOW LEVEL JET RAMPS UP SIGNIFICANTLY THIS

EVENING WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING 30+ KT WINDS STARTING

AROUND 600 FT AGL AND 40+ KT WINDS AT 1000 FT WITH A PEAK AT AROUND

60 KT UP AROUND 2500 FT. ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT 30 KT

GUSTS COULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER WARM FRONT LOOKS TO QUICKLY

CROSS THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH A LOW LEVEL THERMAL AXIS

CRESTING THE AREA. WINDS BECOME A BIGGER ISSUE SUNDAY AS MIXING

COMMENCES. THE LOW WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS SOUTHERN

HUDSON BAY AND LIKELY BE SOMEWHERE AROUND 980 MB. PEAK LOW LEVEL

WINDS DO SUBSIDE BUT A DEEP LAYER OF 40-50 KT WINDS CONTINUES INTO

EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MIXING SUPPORTS GUSTS TO NEAR 40 KT DURING

THE DAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGHER GUSTS OF 45 KT

OR POSSIBLY HIGHER AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES AROUND MIDDAY.

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I was just catching up on my reading here and was about to post thoughts similar to Josh's. I wouldn't mind if we have a cromartie torch until mid December as long as the rest of the winter is cold and snowy. People wouldn't even remember that the first 2 weeks of met winter was warm. I guess that my personal preference is to have a shorter, more intense winter over a longer drawn-out, crap mix of winter/torch. In the menatime, I am going to enjoy my sunny and 60 today!

There's always 1993-94

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lol. 31-32 was about the worst winter since 1900. Even 01-02 wasn't that bad.

Maybe we can throw in 1877-78 as well.

fwiw, it is warming here tonight. Don't see that very often, through the night.

That winter was awful (actually for people without central heating, it must have seemed great!). Take a look at December 1877 in Toronto.

http://www.climate.weatheroffice.gc.ca/climateData/dailydata_e.html?timeframe=2&Prov=ONT&StationID=5051&dlyRange=1840-03-01|2011-04-17&Year=1877&Month=12&Day=1 Less than an inch of snow and blowtorch warm!

December 1889 was almost as bad - worse in fact in terms of temperature.

http://www.climate.weatheroffice.gc.ca/climateData/dailydata_e.html?timeframe=2&Prov=ONT&StationID=5051&dlyRange=1840-03-01|2011-04-17&Month=12&Year=1889&cmdB1=Go&Day=11

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Looks warm for foreseeable future. Brown Christmas?

No, this week looks seasonable, maybe a tad above average, and Thanksgiving Week will likely start out turning cooler and then warm up by the time Thanksgiving Day comes. Nothing too out of the ordinary, especially considering past warm Novembers before tough winters.

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No, this week looks seasonable, maybe a tad above average, and Thanksgiving Week will likely start out turning cooler and then warm up by the time Thanksgiving Day comes. Nothing too out of the ordinary, especially considering past warm Novembers before tough winters.

Let the warminista trolls have their fun these last few weeks. Come Dec they will for the most part be MIA..

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tomorrow is going to be quite windy around here

from LOT

WEAK UPPER WAVE LOOKS TO

LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING BRINGING MODEST MID

LEVEL COOL ADVECTION FOR A SHORT TIME AND MAY SERVE AS A CATALYST

FOR MIXING TO RE-DEVELOP LEADING TO A RETURN OF WIND GUSTS. THE

CONCERN IS THAT THE LOW LEVEL JET RAMPS UP SIGNIFICANTLY THIS

EVENING WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING 30+ KT WINDS STARTING

AROUND 600 FT AGL AND 40+ KT WINDS AT 1000 FT WITH A PEAK AT AROUND

60 KT UP AROUND 2500 FT. ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT 30 KT

GUSTS COULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER WARM FRONT LOOKS TO QUICKLY

CROSS THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH A LOW LEVEL THERMAL AXIS

CRESTING THE AREA. WINDS BECOME A BIGGER ISSUE SUNDAY AS MIXING

COMMENCES. THE LOW WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS SOUTHERN

HUDSON BAY AND LIKELY BE SOMEWHERE AROUND 980 MB. PEAK LOW LEVEL

WINDS DO SUBSIDE BUT A DEEP LAYER OF 40-50 KT WINDS CONTINUES INTO

EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MIXING SUPPORTS GUSTS TO NEAR 40 KT DURING

THE DAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGHER GUSTS OF 45 KT

OR POSSIBLY HIGHER AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES AROUND MIDDAY.

Yeah I think we will be seeing some wind advisories going up. Not out of the question that some spots could approach high wind warning criteria if mixing to 900 mb occurs.

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12z GFS has 900 mb winds over 60 kts here at 18z tomorrow while 18z NAM is a little weaker. This will need to be watched closely as any breaks in the clouds would yield better low level lapse rates and a better chance of very strong gusts making it to the ground.

Long range RUC shows some pockets of 40kt gusts over parts of Illinois and Indiana. I agree about breaks in the clouds. This looks like one of those setups where isolated 50mph+ wind gusts occur.

gust_t710m_f24.png

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It'll be interesting watching the Bears game tomorrow with 40+ mph winds lol.

Who's the woman in your avatar?

Yeah, the Bears game will be fun. Can't remember the exact year, but I recall a Bears-49ers game where the wind was completely out of control. Field goals and punts were interesting to say the least.

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David Phillips once said that November is the stormiest month in the Great Lakes. The first 12 days of November 2011 sure haven't lived up to that standard. Looks like we're finally gonna turn the page during the next week or so and I should fully emerge from my coma.

It looks like another warmup the following week though

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Maybe a modest damaging wind threat shaping up for Monday. 00z NAM has CAPE of about 500 here. Winds aloft are very strong with 500 mb winds over 80 kts and 300 mb winds over 130 kts. Whatever does occur will probably be fairly low topped so no real danger of tapping into the higher level winds.

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