SpartyOn Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 There are signs that the flip will come around the 20th. Though the trough may be still a bit far west, have to wait. That is correct..LES gets rocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 Hmm I did a analysis between 2001 and 2011 and I found some surprising similarities both in the summer pattern and the following Fall pattern. That summer was dry and warm across the Great Lakes region like this year, had a wetter than normal October and warm November --_____--. That Winter featured a +NAO/-PNA mostly with a neutral ENSO. F**k no. Anything but 2001-02. That Winter was the the most cr**piest Winter ever lol. If anything this current Nina is resembling the late 60's to late 70's ENSO. Think about it. 1969-70 was a El Nino followed by a 2 year Nina then a Strong Nino in 72-73, then a -ENSO anomaly from 73-76, then a +ENSO anomaly from 76-78. 2006-07 was a El Nino then a 2 year Nina, then a strong Nino in 2009-10, a Strong La Nina last year and perhaps another La Nina this year? Notice the similarities? With that being said the 70's Nina's are good reference points. A repeat of 1970-71 would be golden. As others have pointed out, very little chance this winter resembles 2001-02 in any way (though as horrible as it was, the Great Lakes region did a lot better than the northeast)....but in this part of the Lakes theres actually not even that similarity that you pointed out. Here, summer 2001 was warm and dry, summer 2011 warm and wet. Oct 2001 VERY wet, Oct 2011 had below normal precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 There are signs that the flip will come around the 20th. Though the trough may be still a bit far west, have to wait. Couldnt have asked for better. Ive been wishing snow away until then as I will be out of town Nov 13-20 on a cruise. Dont want to miss any snow. By afternoon Nov 21st it can start snowing and keep on snowing for the rest of the 2011-12 season! fwiw looks like the first flakes will be possible thursday evening here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 0z GFS is interesting around the 16th-17th. Shows a potential snow event for IL/IN/OH/MI. Will be interesting to see if the Euro and/or GGEM shows this too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 lol gfs.. good thing for josh that won't happen.. Bad thing for josh is he is still going on a cruise lol. I was dumb enough to give a cruise vacation a 2nd chance and sadly it wasn't an Alaskan one. I'd rather suck a hospital mop, but to each their own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 Monday, November 7th: Hi: 57F Lo: 49F Overall Sky Conditions: Cloudy Max Wind Gust: 7MPH Rainfall: 0.06" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 lol gfs.. good thing for josh that won't happen.. Bad thing for josh is he is still going on a cruise lol. I was dumb enough to give a cruise vacation a 2nd chance and sadly it wasn't an Alaskan one. I'd rather suck a hospital mop, but to each their own. Not giving it any credence but the GGEM also has a storm in that same time frame, though I give it <5% of verifying at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 Not giving it any credence but the GGEM also has a storm in that same time frame, though I give it <5% of verifying at this point. Isn't this the same timeframe that previous runs had a deep low in the upper Midwest? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 Isn't this the same timeframe that previous runs had a deep low in the upper Midwest? nevermind, that is still there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 Isn't this the same timeframe that previous runs had a deep low in the upper Midwest? At one time the GFS did while the Euro and GGEM were quicker. GFS i think is now quicker with that low in Canada by the 16th. If you look at the images i posted toward the bottom of the last page of the 0z GFS, this is a different piece of energy that turns into something interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 Not giving it any credence but the GGEM also has a storm in that same time frame, though I give it <5% of verifying at this point. never know.. at least there is some colder air in place after the cutter to tap in to if something does ride up.. Quite the roller coaster on the models.. I just hope we can flip to winter around dec 1st like last season... having my doubts anytime before that but i don't look at the projected PNA, NAO, AO, ABC, XYZ and etc indices so who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 never know.. at least there is some colder air in place after the cutter to tap in to if something does ride up.. Quite the roller coaster on the models.. I just hope we can flip to winter around dec 1st like last season... having my doubts anytime before that but i don't look at the projected PNA, NAO, AO, ABC, XYZ and etc indices so who knows I think after thanksgiving we will start having colder air to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 On another note, got bored the other day and drew this up (This would be at 18z for the given day, in April or May)... (Actually wrote up a convective outlook for it too, for w/e reason) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 6z GFS depicting a torch for pretty much the rest of November, sort of in line with the euro weeklies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 6z GFS depicting a torch for pretty much the rest of November, sort of in line with the euro weeklies GFS is all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 06z GFS is interesting around the 16th-17th. Shows a potential Severe T-Storm threat with well above temps for IL/IN/OH/MI. Will be interesting to see if the Euro and/or GGEM shows this too. FIXED Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 A spring-like 60/51 here at 10AM. Torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 A spring-like 60/51 here at 10AM. Torch. Feel pretty nice outside today.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 Lol at the endless fall depicted on a few runs of the goofus. Very progressive with many of the troughs and the cold shots last for only a couple of days.. But this will change. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 Feel pretty nice outside today.. Get used to it I guess. Looks like overall, we torch for the next 2 weeks. Hopefully signs of winter start to appear in the last week of November... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 i'm totally cool with torchy novembers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 Meaningless stats, but Novembers that are +2º or warmer at the WL COOP, go on to have a warm December 57% of the time...so not really a dominant sign there per se. Of the last four Nina Novembers that were +2º or warmer, three of them had warm Decembers...small sample size and all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 NAO telling it all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 With the looming Prospects of a torched Nov Im reminded on why one should never weenie out this early in the game. God help help this crew/region if Dec torches. It will be a bloodbath of broken hearts and frustration. I'm now saying my prayers for a -NAO and other thinga to add to the wish list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 You mean west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 I've learned like many of you guys... If ya don't like the long range wait 2 days. It will change in your favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 Signs on both the ECM and GFS that past the 20th will be the first real cold air shot.. GFS keeps it locked down too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 Ended up being a much colder day than what was forecast. Expected mid to upper 50s, but hung in the low to mid 40s all day with off and on light rain/drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 500 mb heights on the 00z GFS at 96 to 144 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 500 mb heights on the 00z GFS at 96 to 144 hours Pool days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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