Hoosier Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 I can't give 01-02 much if any consideration even if the apparent results have some similarities...the ENSO state/progression is too different. Does not mean it couldn't turn out to be one of the crappy Nina winters though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 12z Euro has a beast out in the 9-10 day range. Looks like a sub 976 mb surface low in Minnesota. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 12z Euro has a beast out in the 9-10 day range. Looks like a sub 976 mb surface low in Minnesota. Yup, definitely a bomb being shown in that time frame, the 500 mb heights are impressive on both the GFS and Euro for this potential trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 With 60's today, hard to believe that one year ago today it looked like this: I agree that 60's in November are just awful. Especially now with sunsets occurring at 5 o'clock, you can't even enjoy the nice weather outside this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 With 60's today, hard to believe that one year ago today it looked like this: I agree that 60's in November are just awful. Especially now with sunsets occurring at 5 o'clock, you can't even enjoy the nice weather outside this month. Wow, that's crazy. None of the official sites had any measurable snowfall last November. For YNG, that was only the third time in recorded history no snow fell before December 1. I didn't realize parts of northeast Ohio had so much snowfall last November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 Wow, that's crazy. None of the official sites had any measurable snowfall last November. For YNG, that was only the third time in recorded history no snow fell before December 1. I didn't realize parts of northeast Ohio had so much snowfall last November. Yes. It was a lake effect event. The flow wasn't favorable for snow to be recorded at CLE though. There was about 7" in Beachwood/Shaker Heights, but a more widespread 4" for the east side of Cleveland and suburbs. It didn't snow again for about 4 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 Hmm I did a analysis between 2001 and 2011 and I found some surprising similarities both in the summer pattern and the following Fall pattern. That summer was dry and warm across the Great Lakes region like this year, had a wetter than normal October and warm November --_____--. That Winter featured a +NAO/-PNA mostly with a neutral ENSO. F**k no. Anything but 2001-02. That Winter was the the most cr**piest Winter ever lol. If anything this current Nina is resembling the late 60's to late 70's ENSO. Think about it. 1969-70 was a El Nino followed by a 2 year Nina then a Strong Nino in 72-73, then a -ENSO anomaly from 73-76, then a +ENSO anomaly from 76-78. 2006-07 was a El Nino then a 2 year Nina, then a strong Nino in 2009-10, a Strong La Nina last year and perhaps another La Nina this year? Notice the similarities? With that being said the 70's Nina's are good reference points. A repeat of 1970-71 would be golden. who knows: perhaps the Occupy Toronto and Ottawa movements will luck out as they camp out throughout the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 Novembers typically suck.. They remind me of may in spring..stuck inbetwen the warmth and chill. For instance today is beautiful but 60 in November sucks. Esspecially when Christmas music is playing on the radio. Going to be honest.. Im a tad shocked that the long range is delaying the cold shots and to hear some places have yet to bust the freezing mark. But needless to say I shouldn't forget about last years insane November torch. December is the most logical and historical month for this region to see measurable snow. Yea we can see flakes and a coating to an inch... But I can't remember the last time I've seen a true snynaptic snowstorm in Nov. I guess I'm patently awaiting the first real event.. And for my area that usually means a mixed precip event. Lol I like Mild Novembers it allows me to finish projects. Nov 2004 didnt it bring 3-8 inch event for SEMI? Thats the last big November event I can remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 We haven't had much in the way of November snow in the past several seasons, but once we hit December things got crazy. I'm actually sort of hoping it's that way again this season, but you never really know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 I like Mild Novembers it allows me to finish projects. Nov 2004 didnt it bring 3-8 inch event for SEMI? Thats the last big November event I can remember. There was a Thanksgiving storm in 2004 that was mostly north of Metro Detroit and then another in 2005 that hit Ann Arbor fairly hard for rush hour the night before Thanksgiving. Then in 2007 there was a light snow for Oakland/Genesee Counties. There was also a huge Thanksgiving snowstorm bust in 2002 or 2003 that had high potential, but there were marginal temps and it was mostly rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 I do recall a 5" snowfall in mid November sometime between 2001 and 2004. I like Mild Novembers it allows me to finish projects. Nov 2004 didnt it bring 3-8 inch event for SEMI? Thats the last big November event I can remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 Starting to wonder if this Winter will be the most noteworthy and historic the GL area has seen in many years. Almost every (not all but most) Winter forecast is going all balls on the cold and snow. Is it really the 70s all over again? Or the early 1900s. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 Starting to wonder if this Winter will be the most noteworthy and historic the GL area has seen in many years. Almost every (not all but most) Winter forecast is going all balls on the cold and snow. Is it really the 70s all over again? Or the early 1900s. We shall see. The active fall with many GL cutters and Ohio Valley storms has to be at least a decent sign for the winter; my concern is that November ends up being the active month (when it is difficult to get snow to begin with), then in December the NAO blocking becomes unfavorable for the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest and everything is suppressed or a coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 On the plus side, models come out a hour earlier. They need to push the end of daylights saving time back to mid-October like in the olden days. Or just do away with it completely. What would be so bad about living on standard time all year? (Of course really we should all just learn to live on GMT....there, now I've derailed the thread ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 Zulu time!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 Or just do away with it completely. What would be so bad about living on standard time all year? (Of course really we should all just learn to live on GMT....there, now I've derailed the thread ) evenings wouldn't be as long in the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carumba Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 With 60's today, hard to believe that one year ago today it looked like this: I agree that 60's in November are just awful. Especially now with sunsets occurring at 5 o'clock, you can't even enjoy the nice weather outside this month. I love the east side of town, always good for a dumping. But I must say this November has been very benign though I can now procrastinate and hold off finding a snow plow guy for a few more weeks, which will hopefully save me a few bucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 evenings wouldn't be as long in the summer. True. But we'd get used to it. It also would get cooler sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 True. But we'd get used to it. It also would get cooler sooner. Long evenings>cooler sooner/models out earlier. No contest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 Sunday, November 6th: Hi: 57F Lo: 45F Overall Sky Conditions: Mostly Cloudy Max Wind Gust: 18MPH Rainfall: 0.00" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 models out earlier a definite advantage but in summer i dont care about them so indifferent i guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 Long evenings>cooler sooner/models out earlier. No contest. I respect your opinion, but I have to defer differ. Whether it gets dark at 8:30 or 7:30 doesn't bother me all that much. Except maybe for chasing it would be annoying. I mean yeah, technically initiation would occur an hour sooner too but you would still feel ripped off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 I do recall a 5" snowfall in mid November sometime between 2001 and 2004. Since 2002 Biggest Events in SEMI that I could Find. Pretty much blah. 2002 http://www.crh.noaa....s_nov262002.php I Was there (Port Huron)...pretty sweet 2004 http://www.clickonde...715/detail.html 2005 http://www.crh.noaa....now200511241317 2007 http://www.crh.noaa....now200711221432 2008 http://www.crh.noaa....now200812011531 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 Well there was 1951. That was a good year for November. November 7, 1951, a snowstorm that started on November 6 came to an end across Southeast Michigan. The storm left Saginaw with 12.7 inches of snow, Flint 13.4 inches, and Detroit 5.6 inches. This storm was the 5th heaviest snowstorm in Flint history, and the 14th heaviest for Saginaw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 Well there was 1951. That was a good year for November. November 7, 1951, a snowstorm that started on November 6 came to an end across Southeast Michigan. The storm left Saginaw with 12.7 inches of snow, Flint 13.4 inches, and Detroit 5.6 inches. This storm was the 5th heaviest snowstorm in Flint history, and the 14th heaviest for Saginaw. Nothing beats Thanksgiving weekend 1974 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 We still have a ways to go. November sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 It was the 3rd year of the Nina. Interesting similarities to this year though, despite this year not being the third year of a Nina. Very mild start to November in these parts, with a coolish December and a very cold January, before a flip to torch conditions in February 1976. Janauary 1976 was probably one of the colder Januaries Toronto has seen in the past 50 years. Cold weather finally arrived around November 20th of that year, kind of what I've heard Joe Bastardii is hinting at on his site. http://twitter.com/#!/BigJoeBastardi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 Nice day here today. About 60 with sun. Big rains on the way tonight through tomorrow night though. Looks like 2"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 Intermittent rain showers here today...to the tune of 0.20" so far. A rather gloomy day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 Nice day here today. About 60 with sun. Big rains on the way tonight through tomorrow night though. Looks like 2"+. Same story here. Not looking forward to walking around the city tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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