GLOV November obs/disco thread

[Ottawa Blizzard]

have to say that I'm loving the 12z run of the GFS, which shows a big cool down by next weekend, with light snow prospects for both Toronto and Ottawa by Remembrance/Veteran's Day. Here's hoping the gFS is on to something.

[hm8]

DTX with the teaser...

NWP DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS ARE ADVERTISING A CLIPPER SYSTEM TO

SWING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING. THERE REMAINS

OVER 140 HOURS TO SORT THIS OUT WITH TIMING...BUT SNOW OR A RAIN

SNOW MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

This being said, the latest long range Euro apparently has mild weather right through to early December...

[andyhb]

GFS has been showing a feature like this for several runs in a row, will be interesting to see if the Euro agrees to any extent and if the GFS continues to indicate something like this.

Euro shows a big time trough at around the same period, interesting.

[Thunder Road]

This being said, the latest long range Euro apparently has mild weather right through to early December...

Does anyone have access to the monthlies? I think they come out the first Thursday of the month, right...?

[Hoosier]

Does anyone have access to the monthlies? I think they come out the first Thursday of the month, right...?

Harry does

[Chicago Storm]

Does anyone have access to the monthlies? I think they come out the first Thursday of the month, right...?

I have the weeklies, which come out every Thursday.

[SpartyOn]

This being said, the latest long range Euro apparently has mild weather right through to early December...

[wisconsinwx]

Superstition is one thing, but waiting until the event commences to start a thread for it is another. The next system is 3 days away; I think a thread is in order.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

I have the weeklies, which come out every Thursday.

Brett Anderson of accuweather usually shows them in his Canadian weather blog. They don't look too good. It is just November though.

[Hoosier]

Superstition is one thing, but waiting until the event commences to start a thread for it is another. The next system is 3 days away; I think a thread is in order.

Then start one. Either that or we can make my severe thread all encompassing and split off later if it looks like it's going to be a significant severe event.

[BowMeHunter]

What a beautiful sleeping night.. nice near 50 degree breeze coming in the windows from here to international falls. Beg for these kind of sleeping nights in august.

[Chicago Storm]

Saturday, November 5th:

Hi: 57F

Lo: 34F

Overall Sky Conditions: Clear

Max Wind Gust: 11MPH

Rainfall: 0.00"

[andyhb]

If anything close to what is being depicted in the 00z GFS between 168-216 hrs comes into reality (which has been shown for 5-6 runs in a row now)...

...

[BowMeHunter]

Tropical will be riding the waves in his pool. Liking the roller coaster pattern.. Maybe we have a 07/08 lite upcoming winter I would probably lean more towards the latter few yrs and more blocking. Tough call this winter, even if almost every winter outlook is for a pretty solid winter... I have no real gut feeling outside I can almost guarantee here in milwaukee we'll have our coldest arctic blast in the last 3 winters. probably more than once.

[wisconsinwx]

Tropical will be riding the waves in his pool. Liking the roller coaster pattern.. Maybe we have a 07/08 lite upcoming winter I would probably lean more towards the latter few yrs and more blocking. Tough call this winter, even if almost every winter outlook is for a pretty solid winter... I have no real gut feeling outside I can almost guarantee here in milwaukee we'll have our coldest arctic blast in the last 3 winters. probably more than once.

I would say that's a very reasonable assessment of this winter. Cold is the only certainty (at some point anyway), we have eeked out decent winters even with unfavorable blocking for much of it (like last year), so I think we can get another 55 or 60 inch winter. That would be my guess at this point.

[turtlehurricane]

I would say that's a very reasonable assessment of this winter. Cold is the only certainty (at some point anyway), we have eeked out decent winters even with unfavorable blocking for much of it (like last year), so I think we can get another 55 or 60 inch winter. That would be my guess at this point.

I'm enjoying the ridiculously warm weather personally, it's nearly 60 °F on 11/6 at 2 am! The later the real snow comes the better, we have plenty of time to live tundra style.

[IWXwx]

I'm not ready for severe season to end. :weenie:

[andyhb]

As I mentioned, both models have been suggesting this for multiple runs in a row, would definitely be an interesting event if anything like this actually came into fruition...

The GGEM also suggests a large trough in this timeframe.

[dmc76]

I'm enjoying the ridiculously warm weather personally, it's nearly 60 °F on 11/6 at 2 am! The later the real snow comes the better, we have plenty of time to live tundra style.

Agree. An Old wise man will tell you that cold November means a warmer winter.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Agree. An Old wise man will tell you that cold November means a warmer winter.

That's interesting because I've often found that an abnormally warm November (2001, 2006, 2009) in Toronto and Ottawa is often the signal for a warm winter overall.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Was 1975-76 a la Nina year? Any smilar conditions to this year? The first half of November 1975 was apparently a record blowtorch in the Lakes/northeast.

[Hoosier]

Was 1975-76 a la Nina year? Any smilar conditions to this year? The first half of November 1975 was apparently a record blowtorch in the Lakes/northeast.

It was the 3rd year of the Nina.

[snowstormcanuck]

That's interesting because I've often found that an abnormally warm November (2001, 2006, 2009) in Toronto and Ottawa is often the signal for a warm winter overall.

I agree. It's the warm/dry Octobers here that are linked (even if tenuously so) to colder, snowier winters.

[snowstormcanuck]

I can take the warmth and lack of snow, but it's starting to get a bit ridiculous with this 2 week run of every opportunity for measurable precip drying up before it gets to me.

[SpartyOn]

Novembers typically suck.. They remind me of may in spring..stuck inbetwen the warmth and chill. For instance today is beautiful but 60 in November sucks. Esspecially when Christmas music is playing on the radio. Going to be honest.. Im a tad shocked that the long range is delaying the cold shots and to hear some places have yet to bust the freezing mark. But needless to say I shouldn't forget about last years insane November torch. December is the most logical and historical month for this region to see measurable snow. Yea we can see flakes and a coating to an inch... But I can't remember the last time I've seen a true snynaptic snowstorm in Nov. I guess I'm patently awaiting the first real event.. And for my area that usually means a mixed precip event. Lol

[Organizing Low]

I agree. It's the warm/dry Octobers here that are linked (even if tenuously so) to colder, snowier winters.

cold and snowy octobers, you might as well just fast forward to spring.

[cyclone77]

Warm and windy here today. Been getting strong southerly gusts to about 35mph all morning.

[Snowstorms]

I agree. It's the warm/dry Octobers here that are linked (even if tenuously so) to colder, snowier winters.

Hmm I did a analysis between 2001 and 2011 and I found some surprising similarities both in the summer pattern and the following Fall pattern. That summer was dry and warm across the Great Lakes region like this year, had a wetter than normal October and warm November --_____--. That Winter featured a +NAO/-PNA mostly with a neutral ENSO.

F**k no. Anything but 2001-02. That Winter was the the most cr**piest Winter ever lol.

If anything this current Nina is resembling the late 60's to late 70's ENSO. Think about it. 1969-70 was a El Nino followed by a 2 year Nina then a Strong Nino in 72-73, then a -ENSO anomaly from 73-76, then a +ENSO anomaly from 76-78. 2006-07 was a El Nino then a 2 year Nina, then a strong Nino in 2009-10, a Strong La Nina last year and perhaps another La Nina this year? Notice the similarities? With that being said the 70's Nina's are good reference points. A repeat of 1970-71 would be golden.

[wisconsinwx]

Hmm I did a analysis between 2001 and 2011 and I found some surprising similarities both in the summer pattern and the following Fall pattern. That summer was dry and warm across the Great Lakes region like this year, had a wetter than normal October and warm November --_____--. That Winter featured a +NAO/-PNA mostly with a neutral ENSO.

F**k no. Anything but 2001-02. That Winter was the the most cr**piest Winter ever lol.

If anything this current Nina is resembling the late 60's to late 70's ENSO. Think about it. 1969-70 was a El Nino followed by a 2 year Nina then a Strong Nino in 72-73, then a -ENSO anomaly from 73-76, then a +ENSO anomaly from 76-78. 2006-07 was a El Nino then a 2 year Nina, then a strong Nino in 2009-10, a Strong La Nina last year and perhaps another La Nina this year? Notice the similarities? With that being said the 70's Nina's are good reference points. A repeat of 1970-71 would be golden.

Yeah, 01-02 was crappy for most in the northern tier, even much of the Northeast. Given the number of snowstorms we have had in the country this year already, a repeat of 01-02 or anything close to it should be a long shot.