Srain Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 It seems like it has been a while since a Late October Winter Storm has been on tap as far S as New Mexico. There is even chatter of some back end snow for the Texas Panhandle. Discuss... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted October 24, 2011 Author Share Posted October 24, 2011 HPC: DAYS 2 AND 3... ...CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES INTO FRONT RANGE... STRENGTHENING UPPER DYNAMICS/HEIGHT FALLS... ON THE HEELS OF THE NRN ROCKIES SYSTEM FROM MON... WILL DIG ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ON TUES AND WED. THE INGREDIENTS APPEAR TO BE COMING TOGETHER FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM FOR THE CENTRAL AND SRN ROCKIES POSSIBLY INTO THE FRONT RANGE. THE COMBINATION OF BROAD UPPER DIFLUENT FLOW AND DYNAMIC FORCING AHEAD OF THIS SRN STREAM POSITIVE TILTED TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH MOIST OROGRAPHIC/UPSLOPE FLOW... BEHIND A PLUNGING COLD FRONT AS A BROAD SPRAWLING SURFACE RIDGE WEDGES DOWN THE FRONT RANGE. THE THERMAL COLUMN WILL INITIALLY BE QUITE DRY AND RELATIVELY MILD FROM THE FRONT RANGE EASTWARD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...BUT THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND FORCING ALOFT WILL ALLOW THE COLUMN TO MOISTEN AND COOL WITH TIME. THE LATEST GUIDANCE DEPICTS A PERIOD OF LOCALLY STRONG FORCING ENHANCED BY ROBUST 850/650 MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND NEG EPV WHICH WILL ALSO BE CONDUCIVE FOR CSI/BANDED SNOWFALL. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FROM 06Z/26 TO 18Z/26 WHERE LOCALLY VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES ARE LIKELY...WITH RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCH/HR POSSIBLE. THE SNOW WILL SPREAD SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN CO AND NRN NM ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURS... AS THE UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO DIG SEWRD INTO THE REGION AND A POTENT 500 MB LOW CLOSES OFF. THIS SHOULD PINPOINT THE INTENSE UPSLOPE FLOW/HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS SRN CO ROCKIES INTO THE SAN JUAN AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS. THE TWO MODELS MOST ALIGNED WITH THIS FCST SCENARIO OVER THE TWO DAYS IS THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF. HPC FOLLOWED THIS DUO VERY CLOSELY FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL OR HVY SNOW PROBS BOTH DAYS... POSSIBLY BLEEDING DOWN THE FOOTHILLS INTO THE FRONT RANGE. WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE... SOME SPOTS IN THE CO ROCKIES WILL LIKELY SEE OVER A FOOT OR MORE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Great setup here. We didn't see this type of Front Range setup all of last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 tsk, tsk...i found a spelling error in the thread title Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted October 25, 2011 Author Share Posted October 25, 2011 tsk, tsk...i found a spelling error in the thread title Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 +SN in Laramie... KLAR 260006Z AUTO 04008KT 1/4SM +SN FZFG VV008 M02/M03 A3010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 As posted in the Colorado thread, decent totals coming out of CO/WY... 1000 PM SNOW 2 NW CHEYENNE 41.17N 104.82W 10/25/2011 M6.3 INCH LARAMIE WY NWS EMPLOYEE 0914 PM HEAVY SNOW LARAMIE 41.31N 105.58W 10/25/2011 E6.0 INCH ALBANY WY LAW ENFORCEMENT SNOW DEPTH RANGED FROM 4 TO 6 INCHES. WAS STILL SNOWING. 0934 PM HEAVY SNOW 3 S ESTES PARK 40.33N 105.52W 10/25/2011 E6.0 INCH LARIMER CO PUBLIC Heavy snow in Broomfield, CO... KBJC 260350Z 34012KT 1/4SM +SN OVC003 00/00 A3021 RMK LAST Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 friends both reported around 6" in Boulder and Ft. Collins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 A few of the higher totals(12"+) from the area...not bad for October and the first event of the season... 0600 AM HEAVY SNOW 3 W JAMESTOWN 40.11N 105.44W 10/26/2011 M15.8 INCH BOULDER CO TRAINED SPOTTER 0650 AM SNOW 20 W CHEYENNE 41.14N 105.18W 10/26/2011 E15.0 INCH LARAMIE WY TRAINED SPOTTER ESTIMATED SNOWFALL 15 INCHES WITH 8 INCHES STILL ON THE GROUND. 1000 AM HEAVY SNOW 10 SE LARAMIE 41.21N 105.45W 10/26/2011 E14.0 INCH ALBANY WY OTHER FEDERAL CROW CREEK SNOTEL. ESTIMATED USING A 15 TO 1 RATIO WITH 0.9 INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT. 0700 AM HEAVY SNOW ESE ESTES PARK 40.37N 105.51W 10/26/2011 M14.0 INCH LARIMER CO TRAINED SPOTTER 0100 PM HEAVY SNOW 4 ENE NEDERLAND 39.99N 105.45W 10/26/2011 M13.0 INCH BOULDER CO TRAINED SPOTTER 0753 AM SNOW 4 NW CARPENTER 41.07N 104.39W 10/26/2011 E13.0 INCH LARAMIE WY TRAINED SPOTTER 1052 AM HEAVY SNOW 1 N GREELEY 40.44N 104.74W 10/26/2011 M12.5 INCH WELD CO TRAINED SPOTTER 1230 PM HEAVY SNOW 7 S NEW RAYMER 40.51N 103.83W 10/26/2011 M12.4 INCH MORGAN CO TRAINED SPOTTER 0945 AM HEAVY SNOW 4 ENE NEDERLAND 39.99N 105.45W 10/26/2011 M12.0 INCH BOULDER CO TRAINED SPOTTER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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