Major LES Event

[Thundersnow12]

1044 AM HEAVY SNOW 2 WNW ROSELAND 41.72N 86.29W

12/13/2010 M6.5 INCH ST. JOSEPH IN BROADCAST MEDIA

6.5 INCHES OF SNOW FELL BETWEEN 5AM AND 10AM THIS

MORNING

[OHweather]

Have been seeing moderate to heavy snow (or just heavy since about 6am) since about 10pm last night. It is hard to get good measurements...my board only has 3" new which is low. Had approximately 4" on the ground last night before the snow started, and have about a foot in areas that haven't seen too much drifting, so will go with 8" as a best guess on new snow for last night and this morning here in Solon. The spotter in Solon called in 7" for just last night which I believe is too high.

Currently have 2-3' drifts and the visibility has been below a quarter mile almost non-stop since 6am, and has gotten as low as 500' a few times. For the blizzard warning criteria, we have met the visibility requirement, however based on other inland obs and what I'm seeing winds are only gusting to around 30, which does not meet the wind criteria. Burke in downtown is easily meeting the wind criteria sustained 35 gusting to 40, and reported a quarter mile visibility last hour. However, the band appears to be shifting east of there so I doubt they will maintain this visibility for three hours total. Areas east however have and look to continue being in the thick of this heavy band and blizzard warning criteria may be met across the lakeshore areas of eastern Cuyahoga County, and likely across the Huron enhanced band that has been parked over western Ashtabula County for quite some time now, so CLE is definitely riding a fine line right now in just going with a winter storm warning.

If anything the heavy band of snow over the secondary Snow Belt has shifted east a tad since it developed earlier this morning, however right now is fairly steady in intensity and location, and based on how fast snow has been accumulating here the last hour or two is dumping 1-2" per hour with 30-35MPH wind gusts. Based on the wind field as scene on the CLE radar, am expecting this band to stay put for at least the majority of the afternoon over eastern Cuyahoga, NE Summit, NW Portage and eastern Geauga county, perhaps grazing eastern Lake County:

Radar winds

Given 1-2" per hour rates, many areas have already picked up 3-6"+ from this band this morning, and we should see that repeated or even exceeded locally this afternoon, for daily snow totals of 6-12"+ over the eastern half of Cuyahoga county, northern Summit and extreme NW Portage and far western Geauga counties. Portions of Ashtabula county will also see similar amounts under the Lake Huron band. Elsewhere just appears to be some terrain enhanced light to moderate snow, which likely won't amount to more than 1-3 or 2-4" unless we see the bands shift around some.

As for later this evening into tonight, the 15z RUC shows winds backing a bit more towards the north for a time this afternoon, perhaps behind an apparent trough over the lake which has been pointed out, which may bring the heavy band back over downtown. However, as the trough moves away the model brings winds back to 310-320 again meaning areas getting hit hard now may still be in the thick of things most of tonight, which could mean some areas in eastern Cuyahoga (especially inland) and northern Summit counties are pushing 18-24" by tomorrow morning.

The latest 12z WRF run on E-Wall shows this evolution, with everything swinging west for a bit later this afternoon into the evening, then going back east tonight. The model shows things weakening by tomorrow afternoon, which is when some dry air should start filtering in.

12z WRF

[snowstormcanuck]

Thought London_Snowsquall and the NE Ohio crew might find this useful. It's 36 hour QPF output derived from the 12z 12km WRF.

[NEOH]

Actually, I was kind of thinking the 06Z BUF WRF runs did nicely. Per the 10 a.m. spotter reports, there was a 8 inch new snow bulls eye in extreme SE Cuyahoga County and another one in Ashtabula County. Yesterday's WRF didn't really verify, but there is a good and steady band of +SN going from BKL to Maple Heights to Portage County now.

It's been snowing heavily in Chagrin Falls now since about 8:45 a.m. I think today's 3-7" from the NWS needs to be updated.

Do you think the winds will back to 280 or 290? Doesn't seem that likely. Looks like the wind flow doesn't change much 300 - 320. Snowing about as hard as it can with a limited fetch right now. Off and on again blizzard conditions.

[Hoosier]

This is pretty impressive...White county is way inland.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA  
1127 AM EST MON DEC 13 2010     

.TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON     
.DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.                
..REMARKS..    

1125 AM     HEAVY SNOW       HEADLEE                 40.90N  86.66W  
12/13/2010  M8.0 INCH        WHITE              IN   TRAINED SPOTTER                 

24 HOUR AND STORM TOTAL AT 8 INCHES. BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW ON ROADS...AT LEAST 3 FEET DEEP.  

[Harry]

This is pretty impressive...White county is way inland.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA  
1127 AM EST MON DEC 13 2010     

.TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON     
.DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.                
..REMARKS..    

1125 AM     HEAVY SNOW       HEADLEE                 40.90N  86.66W  
12/13/2010  M8.0 INCH        WHITE              IN   TRAINED SPOTTER                 

24 HOUR AND STORM TOTAL AT 8 INCHES. BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW ON ROADS...AT LEAST 3 FEET DEEP.  

Quick question for you or someone who knows? Why does it seem harder to get the bands to go as far inland with these north/nnw events vs the west/wnw up this way?

Thanks..

[A-L-E-K]

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/~tomw/wisgifloop.html

nice

[snowstormcanuck]

Quick question for you or someone who knows? Why does it seem harder to get the bands to go as far inland with these north/nnw events vs the west/wnw up this way?

Thanks..

That's a good question. When he said LAF typically only gets flurries from LES I found that very surprising. You'd think the longer fetch would be more conducive for better inland penetration.

[Hoosier]

Quick question for you or someone who knows? Why does it seem harder to get the bands to go as far inland with these north/nnw events vs the west/wnw up this way?

Thanks..

I think some clarification is in order (and this may be partly my fault). It's not that bands can't go far inland with N/NNW flow, it's that they usually don't maintain the intensity like what has been happening with this event. Also it was a bit unusual to see the western extent last night. Usually the flow quickly backs too far northwest and directs most everything north/east of LAF and Indy, but we had a period where it was extremely strong and favorable.

[Chagrin Falls]

Do you think the winds will back to 280 or 290? Doesn't seem that likely. Looks like the wind flow doesn't change much 300 - 320. Snowing about as hard as it can with a limited fetch right now. Off and on again blizzard conditions.

Not today, but the winds should back a bit tomorrow. Looks like there is some real dry air that arrives on Wednesday (plus some WAA). Should cut off most of it.

[Chicago WX]

Quick question for you or someone who knows? Why does it seem harder to get the bands to go as far inland with these north/nnw events vs the west/wnw up this way?

Thanks..

That's a good question. When he said LAF typically only gets flurries from LES I found that very surprising. You'd think the longer fetch would be more conducive for better inland penetration.

Hoosier knows a lot more about this than I do, but I'll take a stab and say it's partly because of how hard it is to keep the straight north flow, at all levels, all the way down here. Seems in most LES situations that the winds here veer NW/WNW which shreds the band or pushes it off to the northeast of here.

[Harry]

I think some clarification is in order (and this may be partly my fault). It's not that bands can't go far inland with N/NNW flow, it's that they usually don't maintain the intensity like what has been happening with this event. Also it was a bit unusual to see the western extent last night. Usually the flow quickly backs too far northwest and directs most everything north/east of LAF and Indy, but we had a period where it was extremely strong and favorable.

Hoosier knows a lot more about this than I do, but I'll take a stab and say it's partly because of how hard it is to keep the straight north flow, at all levels, all the way down here. Seems in most LES situations that the winds here veer NW/WNW which shreds the band or pushes it off to the northeast of here.

Thanks guys. That would make sense. Pretty sure i remember watching TWC back in the 80s i think ( has been a long time ) and a band that had made it to GA but broken up ofcourse down that way.

[snowstormcanuck]

Hoosier knows a lot more about this than I do, but I'll take a stab and say it's partly because of how hard it is to keep the straight north flow, at all levels, all the way down here. Seems in most LES situations that the winds here veer NW/WNW which shreds the band or pushes it off to the northeast of here.

Actually, that makes a lot of sense. If you think about the curvature of the flow around a departing cyclone, it tends to back as you decrease in latitude.

[Hoosier]

I'd say we had a good 2-3" of lake effect/enhanced snow. It's arguable but that's how much fell from the point that the radar trends suggested a transition in the nature of the event.

[Chicago WX]

I'd say we had a good 2-3" of lake effect/enhanced snow. It's arguable but that's how much fell from the point that the radar trends suggested a transition in the nature of the event.

I'd agree with this. I was trying to match the radar and LAF obs to try to figure it out myself. Of course LAF being on the westside, and the band in its late stages hugging I-65 probably skews it a little low in my analysis...but nothing of any great consequence. Kind of a historic event in a way for here.

[Trent]

Do you think the winds will back to 280 or 290? Doesn't seem that likely. Looks like the wind flow doesn't change much 300 - 320. Snowing about as hard as it can with a limited fetch right now. Off and on again blizzard conditions.

It's interesting because you can look at the meso models and make a forecast, but seems like there's always a fly in the ointment. Not so much as a flurry now on the west side.

Interestingly, of my seasonal 14.3", only 0.6" of that has been non lake effect. I wonder when our first widespread non LES event will hit?

[snowstormcanuck]

NAM BUFKIT spits out about 0.19" QPF at YYZ from the Georgian Bay streamer later tonight and tomorrow with 25-30:1 ratios (~5" of snow). That's the nice thing about the models trending a little warmer with the arctic outbreak. Keeping temps aloft AOA -20c prevents dendrite production from being inhibited.

[NEOH]

It's interesting because you can look at the meso models and make a forecast, but seems like there's always a fly in the ointment. Not so much as a flurry now on the west side.

Interestingly, of my seasonal 14.3", only 0.6" of that has been non lake effect. I wonder when our first widespread non LES event will hit?

snow has tapered off some... still snowing and windy. looks like some dry air moving in from the west. if you look at the visible satellite there was some type of impluse that moved through and disrupted things. looks like the bands are trying to come around more northerly... at least that is what is happening upstream. hopefully things will reorganize tonight.

[Tony]

Looks like the flow is backing to the west again along downtown Chicago

[Chicago Storm]

0142 PM SNOW VALPARAISO 41.48N 87.05W

12/13/2010 M9.0 INCH PORTER IN NWS EMPLOYEE

AVERAGE OF 9 INCHES FOR STORM TOTAL. MEASURED 3.5 FOOT

DRIFTS. BEGINNING TO SNOW AGAIN.

[Chagrin Falls]

snow has tapered off some... still snowing and windy. looks like some dry air moving in from the west. if you look at the visible satellite there was some type of impluse that moved through and disrupted things. looks like the bands are trying to come around more northerly... at least that is what is happening upstream. hopefully things will reorganize tonight.

Looks like the aerial size of the snow is increasing. An area of light snow just popped up in Lorain County and the band in Ashtabula has been steadily drifting west.

However, this chart (typically for SVR forecasting), shows the dry area to our west remaining in place the last several hours:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/archiveviewer.php?sector=16&parm=lfrh

And there still seems to be some "troughiness" flow or bend to the low-level winds on the north side of the lake.

[ayuud]

i wish i was at the thumb right now

SNOWFALL FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH OVERNIGHT WILL BE

HEAVIEST NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM BAD AXE TO SANDUSKY...WITH

AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION BY 7 AM TUESDAY

MORNING. THE HIGHEST TOTALS WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE LAKESHORE. IN

ADDITION TO THE SNOW...NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH FROM OFF

LAKE HURON WILL CREATE SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING

SNOW WHICH WILL FREQUENTLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO ZERO AND MAKE

ROADWAYS DIFFICULT OR IMPOSSIBLE TO CLEAR. WEATHER SPOTTERS IN THE

THUMB HAVE ALREADY REPORTED DRIFTS BUILDING TO AS HIGH AS 7 FEET.

THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO

DROP WIND CHILL VALUES TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO

TONIGHT.

[Stebo]

i wish i was at the thumb right now

I'd rather be in Northwest Indiana. I have been reading that there are vehicles that had to be abandoned on 30 and 12 there, it was/is that bad. Although the Thumb works, between Sarnia and London Ontario isn't bad either.

[KeenerWx]

I'd rather be in Northwest Indiana. I have been reading that there are vehicles that had to be abandoned on 30 and 12 there, it was/is that bad. Although the Thumb works, between Sarnia and London Ontario isn't bad either.

It was extremely bad.

Ended up being stuck for over an hour because there was no distinction between road and ditch/field..the roads were so drifted over. That, coupled with nearly 0 visibility at times ended up with me running off the road.

Mind you, I was in a truck.

[Stebo]

It was extremely bad.

Ended up being stuck for over an hour because there was no distinction between road and ditch/field..the roads were so drifted over. That, coupled with nearly 0 visibility at times ended up with me running off the road.

Mind you, I was in a truck.

Yeah, heck even over here this morning it took me 2+ hours to go home from work which is normally a 30 minute drive, and i passed about 7 cars along the way that people just left on the side of I-94. For as little snow as we got, 4-7", it is surreal how bad the roads were last night and today.

[Chicago WX]

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA

646 PM EST MON DEC 13 2010

0642 PM HEAVY SNOW LAPORTE 41.61N 86.72W

12/13/2010 M17.5 INCH LAPORTE IN TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL. 4 INCHES IN THE LAST 11 HOURS

0437 PM HEAVY SNOW MICHIGAN CITY 41.71N 86.90W

12/13/2010 M15.8 INCH LAPORTE IN AMATEUR RADIO

STORM TOTAL. 1.8 INCHES SINCE 7 AM.

[NEOH]

Looks like the aerial size of the snow is increasing. An area of light snow just popped up in Lorain County and the band in Ashtabula has been steadily drifting west.

However, this chart (typically for SVR forecasting), shows the dry area to our west remaining in place the last several hours:

http://www.spc.noaa....or=16&parm=lfrh

And there still seems to be some "troughiness" flow or bend to the low-level winds on the north side of the lake.

Dry air seems to be playing a part in snowfall coverage. Time sensitive... if you look at the CLE radar there appears to be another band crossing the main band to the east. How is that even possible? Perhaps this will be a trend to a more northerly fetch.

[OHSnow]

Look at the Lake Huron firehose.

[Chicago WX]

Two distinct bands coming down Lake Michigan right now. Looks like Porter Co. ready to get hit by the western band.

[OHweather]

Snow is very hard to measure. Cleared the board at noon and have 2.7" new, so will go with that for additional snowfall since noon. A general 13-15" on the ground, with drifts 2 to over 3 feet common. Winds have come down a little but are still gusting to around 35MPH. Roads are still snowed over. Storm total since yesterday afternoon up to 11.4".

There appears to be a Huron enhancement with the western area of lake effect snow, which may be contributing to the increase in intensity:

http://www.wundergro...917&label=Solon, OH&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=0.489&centerx=393&centery=334&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0

Am currently seeing heavy snow, visibilities came up to 1/2 to 3/4 of a mile from about 2pm through 5:30, but have been down near a quarter mile since with rates probably appraoching an inch per hour.