Major LES Event

[Stebo]

I have no clue...I don't have a snowboard and its assistance would be minimal...I saw 7" but I think we're likely well past that...again can't be sure though...

If surface obs weren't out for about 90% of the nation, I'd say you could get a rough estimate from the vis from Valpo's obs but without the obs that will be difficult.

[B-Rent]

Looks like my fun may be coming to an end as the band appears to be shiftng a bit west says KIND. Hopefully it will maintain its integrity until morning and shift back east.

WEST? Bah humbug. I am probably 20 miles E of you I'm right off of 69 on the Mad/Del border.

[Stebo]

If surface obs weren't out for about 90% of the nation, I'd say you could get a rough estimate from the vis from Valpo's obs but without the obs that will be difficult.

Of course as soon as I post this the obs start coming back after a 4 hour hiatus...

[Chagrin Falls]

This plume is about 40 miles east of where I thought it would be...

The BUF WRF show the band moving west as winds veer and the eastern CLE suburbs getting "a bit", then moving the band back east as winds back this evening.

http://www.erh.noaa....ecip24_F24.html

Because of the strong winds looks like non-event for the western lakeshore communities, at least today.

I like this wording from CLE today:

CHRONIC CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY

THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS. EUROPEAN HINTED OVER THE

LAST COUPLE RUNS THAT A PERSISTENT TROUGH MAY LINGER OVER THE AREA

INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

It is almost like they treat this pattern as a disease.

There seems to be a surface trough in SW Ontario so the surface winds have more of a westerly component than I expected at this point.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=16

I'm sure more snow will develop as the morning progresses, but with Lake Erie and troughs when and where are difficult questions to answer.

[NEOH]

This plume is about 40 miles east of where I thought it would be...

The BUF WRF show the band moving west as winds veer and the eastern CLE suburbs getting "a bit", then moving the band back east as winds back this evening.

http://www.erh.noaa....ecip24_F24.html

Because of the strong winds looks like non-event for the western lakeshore communities, at least today.

I like this wording from CLE today:

CHRONIC CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY

THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS. EUROPEAN HINTED OVER THE

LAST COUPLE RUNS THAT A PERSISTENT TROUGH MAY LINGER OVER THE AREA

INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

It is almost like they treat this pattern as a disease.

There seems to be a surface trough in SW Ontario so the surface winds have more of a westerly component than I expected at this point.

http://www.spc.noaa....r.php?sector=16

I'm sure more snow will develop as the morning progresses, but with Lake Erie and troughs when and where are difficult questions to answer.

Thanks for pointing that out. You can see how the trough is turning the band easterly over southern ontario. Hopefully the trough can push southward and allow the band to back westward.

[Chagrin Falls]

Thanks for pointing that out. You can see how the trough is turning the band easterly over southern ontario. Hopefully the trough can push southward and allow the band to back westward.

I'll believe it when I see it.

[NEOH]

I'll believe it when I see it.

its starting to form now. check out the radar. the band in ashtabula is fading and you see another band forming just west and pointing more southerly.

[Chagrin Falls]

its starting to form now. check out the radar. the band in ashtabula is fading and you see another band forming just west and pointing more southerly.

Well, the trough is definitely pushing southward and it looks like it is moving across the lake right now.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=16&parm=les2#

I do see some bands trying to form in western Lake County. Meanhwhile the heaviest snow seems to be in the secondary snow belt, extreme southern Cuyahoga/northern Medina and northern Summit.

I'm looking forward to the spotter reports at 11 a.m. It will be interesting to see where the bands setup once the trough gets out of the way by late morning. The trough may add some extra convergence.

[Trent]

I should have known it would be too good to be true to have a north/south band through western Cuyahoga this morning.

[NEOH]

Well, the trough is definitely pushing southward and it looks like it is moving across the lake right now.

http://www.spc.noaa....r=16&parm=les2#

I do see some bands trying to form in western Lake County. Meanhwhile the heaviest snow seems to be in the secondary snow belt, extreme southern Cuyahoga/northern Medina and northern Summit.

I'm looking forward to the spotter reports at 11 a.m. It will be interesting to see where the bands setup once the trough gets out of the way by late morning. The trough may add some extra convergence.

Same areas that got hit last week are getting it again. Hopefully that trough will set up a convergence zone near the lakeshore. There is a probably an explanation for it but it amazes me how the band curves against the mean flow.... like you said, the trough it probably causing it to do so.

It's still early and the snow will last for the next couple of days.

[Chagrin Falls]

4.8" total here in Chagrin Falls since it began to snow yesterday. 8" on the ground. It has been snowing heavier since sunrise.

The boundary layer wind is around 330°. The models yesterday were indicating 340-350°, if that was the case that big band over Lake/Ashtabula/Trumbull would probably be a lot closer to the metro area.

Can't get much worse than this:

KCLE 131351Z 31022G32KT 1/4SM +SN FZFG BLSN BKN010 OVC018 M09/M11 A2965 RMK AO2 PK WND 30032/1346 SLP049 P0000 T10891111

Blizzard warning, anyone?

CLE:

BIG BLOB OF OROGRAPHIC LIFT SNOW DIMINISHED IN AREAL COVERAGE FROM

THE LAKE SHORE SOUTH TO CLEVELAND INTO MEDINA COUNTY. THE BLOB IS

STARTING TO EXPAND AGAIN NOW THAT THE SURFACE TROUGH SLIPPED A BIT

FURTHER SOUTH AND FLOW BECOMES WELL ALIGNED AGAIN. TREND APPEARS

IT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS UNTIL AREA OF POSITIVE

VORTICITY ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS COULD POSSIBLY

HELP TO INTENSIFY THE SNOW OVER THE REGION. I DROPPED VISIBILITIES

DOWN TO A HALF MILE AT TIMES AT CLE AND YNG DURING THE LATE

MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THE OTHER PROBLEM WE FACE

ACROSS THIS AREA IS THE SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE

SNOW. THIS WILL ALSO HAMPER VISIBILITIES AT THE TERMINALS IN THE

HEAVIEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW. FLOW BARELY SHIFTS TO A 280 OR 290

DEGREE DIRECTION OVERNIGHT AND THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME

CONVERGENCE WILL TAKE PLACE ALONG THE LAKE SHORE AND CONTINUE THE

LAKE SNOWS INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

The 12Z NAM shows the band staying over Ashtabula/extreme NE OH throughout the day. It looks like there is low level trough axis SW-NE across SW Ontario on the north side of the lake. That is progged to persist throughout the day, so the convergence/orographic snow is probably the best bet for the metro area today. That could still add up to 8" every 12 hrs in spots.

[janetjanet998]

LM plume now inching back west

0835 AM HEAVY SNOW 2 SW LAPORTE 41.59N 86.75W

12/13/2010 M13.5 INCH LA PORTE IN TRAINED SPOTTER

2 DAY SNOW TOTAL IS 13.5 INCHES WITH 11.5 INCHES

FALLING IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. DRIFTS UP TO 4 FEET IN

LOCATIONS. SEVERAL ROADS CLOSED.

..REMARKS..

0544 AM HEAVY SNOW MICHIGAN CITY 41.71N 86.90W

12/13/2010 M14.0 INCH LAPORTE IN EMERGENCY MNGR

STORM TOTAL SO FAR. DRIFTS UP TO 5 FEET.

[OHSnow]

This plume is about 40 miles east of where I thought it would be...

The BUF WRF show the band moving west as winds veer and the eastern CLE suburbs getting "a bit", then moving the band back east as winds back this evening.

http://www.erh.noaa....ecip24_F24.html

Because of the strong winds looks like non-event for the western lakeshore communities, at least today.

I like this wording from CLE today:

CHRONIC CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY

THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS. EUROPEAN HINTED OVER THE

LAST COUPLE RUNS THAT A PERSISTENT TROUGH MAY LINGER OVER THE AREA

INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

It is almost like they treat this pattern as a disease.

There seems to be a surface trough in SW Ontario so the surface winds have more of a westerly component than I expected at this point.

http://www.spc.noaa....r.php?sector=16

I'm sure more snow will develop as the morning progresses, but with Lake Erie and troughs when and where are difficult questions to answer.

That band has definitely sagged south a bit since you posted this. It was entering Pennsylvania in northern Trumbull county, now it's entering Pennsylvania right around I-80 and continuing southeast into Lawrence, Butler, and Indiana Counties.

[Chagrin Falls]

Heavy snow band developing now from about Oakwood (Cuyahoga) to Ravenna (Portage).

It's been <1/4 mi. visibility in heavy snow here in Chagrin Falls for about the last 2 hours now.

[janetjanet998]

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA

941 AM EST MON DEC 13 2010

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON

.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.

..REMARKS..

0939 AM HEAVY SNOW 5 ESE WESTVILLE 41.51N 86.81W

12/13/2010 M17.0 INCH LA PORTE IN COCORAHS

2 DAY SNOW TOTAL IS 17 INCHES WITH 16 INCHES FALLING IN

THE PAST 24 HOURS. 3 TO 4 FOOT DRIFTS. ROADS NOT PLOWED.

[A-L-E-K]

light snow downtown as the band backs that ass up.

EDIT: Make that a high end light snow.

[Tony]

Yep. We have lake clouds back to Central Dupage County as well but no precip.

[A-L-E-K]

Yep. We have lake clouds back to Central Dupage County as well but no precip.

flurries started lake side (with blue skies to the west) around 7am, now it's a full on light snow, of the light fluffy and swirling variety. You don't often see lake bands back up west like this.

[Tony]

flurries started lake side (with blue skies to the west) around 7am, now it's a full on light snow, of the light fluffy and swirling variety. You don't often see lake bands back up west like this.

Looking pretty good for you downtown. I also looked at the Green Bay site and it looks like it is backing west as well. I don't know what that means for us down our way.

[NEOH]

4.8" total here in Chagrin Falls since it began to snow yesterday. 8" on the ground. It has been snowing heavier since sunrise.

The boundary layer wind is around 330°. The models yesterday were indicating 340-350°, if that was the case that big band over Lake/Ashtabula/Trumbull would probably be a lot closer to the metro area.

Can't get much worse than this:

KCLE 131351Z 31022G32KT 1/4SM +SN FZFG BLSN BKN010 OVC018 M09/M11 A2965 RMK AO2 PK WND 30032/1346 SLP049 P0000 T10891111

Blizzard warning, anyone?

CLE:

BIG BLOB OF OROGRAPHIC LIFT SNOW DIMINISHED IN AREAL COVERAGE FROM

THE LAKE SHORE SOUTH TO CLEVELAND INTO MEDINA COUNTY. THE BLOB IS

STARTING TO EXPAND AGAIN NOW THAT THE SURFACE TROUGH SLIPPED A BIT

FURTHER SOUTH AND FLOW BECOMES WELL ALIGNED AGAIN. TREND APPEARS

IT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS UNTIL AREA OF POSITIVE

VORTICITY ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS COULD POSSIBLY

HELP TO INTENSIFY THE SNOW OVER THE REGION. I DROPPED VISIBILITIES

DOWN TO A HALF MILE AT TIMES AT CLE AND YNG DURING THE LATE

MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THE OTHER PROBLEM WE FACE

ACROSS THIS AREA IS THE SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE

SNOW. THIS WILL ALSO HAMPER VISIBILITIES AT THE TERMINALS IN THE

HEAVIEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW. FLOW BARELY SHIFTS TO A 280 OR 290

DEGREE DIRECTION OVERNIGHT AND THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME

CONVERGENCE WILL TAKE PLACE ALONG THE LAKE SHORE AND CONTINUE THE

LAKE SNOWS INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

The 12Z NAM shows the band staying over Ashtabula/extreme NE OH throughout the day. It looks like there is low level trough axis SW-NE across SW Ontario on the north side of the lake. That is progged to persist throughout the day, so the convergence/orographic snow is probably the best bet for the metro area today. That could still add up to 8" every 12 hrs in spots.

blizzard warnings are needed near the lakeshore. just got back from downtown and there is zero visibility at times. drifts are coming over rt 2 near burke, and freezing spray is crashing onto the freeway near the lake.

if the flow comes around to 280 or 290 there may be a firehouse band as that wind direction brings the western basin fetch. :popcorn:Its going to be a fun couple of days.

[janetjanet998]

not sure what is going on..everthing is backing west acorss the whole lake while the bands remain due north south..its even evident on vis sat

LOT says the opposite should happen

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 14Z...

GENERAL TREND HAS BEEN FOR LAKE EFFECT STRATOCU TO SHIFT SLOWLY

EASTWARD WITH TIME AND SHORTER RANGE MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUE THIS

TREND. SOME ADDITIONAL PDS OF MVFR CIGS AND INSIGNIFICANT LIGHT

SNOW... ESPECIALLY AT KMDW DUE TO CLOSER PROXIMITY TO LAKE

SHORE..BY LATE MORNING WESTERN EDGE OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS

EXPECTED TO REMAIN E OF KMDW. WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY SWRD

ACROSS WRN MN...MID MO VALLEY AND ARKLATEX REGION PROGGED TO

CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVING E TO OVR MID MS VALLEY BY 00Z WINDS AND

GUSTINESS ANTICIPATED TO SHOW A GRADU DROP OFF IN STRENGTH WITH

TIME DURING THE DAY.

[A-L-E-K]

not sure what is going on..everthing is backing west acorss the whole lake while the bands remain due north south..its even evident on vis sat

LOT says the opposite should happen

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 14Z...

GENERAL TREND HAS BEEN FOR LAKE EFFECT STRATOCU TO SHIFT SLOWLY

EASTWARD WITH TIME AND SHORTER RANGE MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUE THIS

TREND. SOME ADDITIONAL PDS OF MVFR CIGS AND INSIGNIFICANT LIGHT

SNOW... ESPECIALLY AT KMDW DUE TO CLOSER PROXIMITY TO LAKE

SHORE..BY LATE MORNING WESTERN EDGE OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS

EXPECTED TO REMAIN E OF KMDW. WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY SWRD

ACROSS WRN MN...MID MO VALLEY AND ARKLATEX REGION PROGGED TO

CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVING E TO OVR MID MS VALLEY BY 00Z WINDS AND

GUSTINESS ANTICIPATED TO SHOW A GRADU DROP OFF IN STRENGTH WITH

TIME DURING THE DAY.

Yeah this is pretty weird

[KeenerWx]

Zone has Jasper County getting 2-4" more throughout the day, for a total of 8-14". Doubt that will happen. I was content with my nearly 8 1/2" of snow.

We're due for a snow drought, though.

[tornadotony]

This is so weird...heavy snow attm...

[A-L-E-K]

This is so weird...heavy snow attm...

you're telling me.

[csnavywx]

you're telling me.

VAD indicates NNE winds just off the deck, which would the backing.

[janetjanet998]

VALPARAISO HVY SNOW 20 17 88 NW13G24 29.99R VSB 1/4 WCI

[TugHillMatt]

you're telling me.

2010 West MIchigan snow bubble in effect and pushing it away...enjoy!

[Trent]

blizzard warnings are needed near the lakeshore. just got back from downtown and there is zero visibility at times. drifts are coming over rt 2 near burke, and freezing spray is crashing onto the freeway near the lake.

if the flow comes around to 280 or 290 there may be a firehouse band as that wind direction brings the western basin fetch. :popcorn:Its going to be a fun couple of days.

Yeah. I'm working from home today! I think half of downtown either took the day off or is working from home, no one wanted a repeat of last Wednesday! I'd love to see another firehose band develop ... I admit all those BUF models had me a fool thinking a north/south one was going to happen last night.

[Chagrin Falls]

Yeah. I'm working from home today! I think half of downtown either took the day off or is working from home, no one wanted a repeat of last Wednesday! I'd love to see another firehose band develop ... I admit all those BUF models had me a fool thinking a north/south one was going to happen last night.

Actually, I was kind of thinking the 06Z BUF WRF runs did nicely. Per the 10 a.m. spotter reports, there was a 8 inch new snow bulls eye in extreme SE Cuyahoga County and another one in Ashtabula County. Yesterday's WRF didn't really verify, but there is a good and steady band of +SN going from BKL to Maple Heights to Portage County now.

It's been snowing heavily in Chagrin Falls now since about 8:45 a.m. I think today's 3-7" from the NWS needs to be updated.