Major LES Event

[Hoosier]

LOT is saying 2-3" per hour possible with the lake snow. That is going to be nuts with the amount of wind.

[Chicago WX]

LOT is saying 2-3" per hour possible with the lake snow. That is going to be nuts with the amount of wind.

NAM still showing that LE/LES connection for down here between 0z and 9z Monday.

http://www.aos.wisc....t/eta212_00UTC/

[Hoosier]

NAM still showing that LE/LES connection for down here between 0z and 9z Monday.

http://www.aos.wisc....t/eta212_00UTC/

Yep. Awaiting the 00z higher res models.

[Hoosier]

The 00z NAM actually has 850 mb winds due north or even nne over the southern end through Monday, but the 925 mb winds are northwesterly.

[janetjanet998]

itlooks like the system snow of starting for NW indiana at thistime

will really pile upthe next couple of days

LOT

BY EARLY THIS EVENING...THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL SHIFT TO LAKE EFFECT

SNOW OVER NWRN INDIANA AND DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS OVER THE

ENTIRE CWA. HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE IDEAS OF THE NAM12 AND 4KM

WRF-NMM WHICH INDICATED A VERY PRONOUNCED LAKE EFFECT PLUME OVER

NWRN INDIANA. HAVE TRENDED TO INCREASE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW AMOUNTS

FOR PORTER COUNTY. AS SUCH...HAVE GONE WITH LIQUID EQUIVALENT SNOW

RATIONS OF 20 TO 1 FOR THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW. IF THE LAKE PLUME SETS

UP AS CURRENTLY EXPECTED...THE ERN PORTIONS OF PORTER COUNTY MAY SEE

UP TO 20 INCHES OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. WITH A PERSISTENT NORTH TO

NORTHWEST FETCH OVER THE LAKE INTO TUESDAY...TRAVEL OVER NWRN

INDIANA WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS.

[Chagrin Falls]

The 06Z GEM shows a decent Huron connection for the areas east of Cleveland Monday night.

Per the latest CLE AFD, I think the "1 to 2 feet" forecast for the usual snowbelt areas (Chardon, Burton, Asthabula, etc.) may be a bit too low.

Once again good stuff from BUF:

OFF LAKE ERIE...A NEARLY STEADY STATE 310-330 FLOW THROUGH TUESDAY

WILL FOCUS THE GREATEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL ALONG THE

CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE AND WESTERN CATTARAUGUS COUNTY. 850 MB

TEMPERATURES AROUND -14C MONDAY MORNING WILL DROP TO NEAR -20C

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST MODERATE

LAKE INSTABILITY WITH LAKE INDUCED CAPES PEAKING AROUND 600 J/KG

AND 1000-850 MB LAPSE RATES ABOVE 9 C/KM. LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM

LEVELS NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS I WOULD LIKE TO SEE INITIALLY...

GENERALLY AROUND 5K FEET BUT INVERSION HEIGHTS DO RISE TO AROUND

10K FEET BY TUESDAY MORNING. VERY COLD LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL

LEAD TO THE MAJORITY OF LIFT IN LAKE EFFECT CLOUD OCCURRING IN THE

PRIMARY DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...THEREFORE I THINK WE WILL BE

LOOKING AT SNOW/WATER RATIOS IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 20:1...

ALTHOUGH AN AIRMASS THIS COLD COULD YIELD EVEN HIGHER RATIOS ABOVE

30:1. AS OF NOW...WE WILL SUGGEST TOTALS EXCEEDING A FOOT

CENTERED ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE...WITH THE PRIMARY TIME RANGE

FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOWS BEING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WHEN THERE

IS A SUGGESTION OF UPSTREAM LAKE CONNECTIONS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW

WATCHES WILL BE POSTED FOR CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES.

[Chicago WX]

6z HIRES NMM 48 hour totals for the N IN LE/LES.

[Indystorm]

Heaviest LES band still being progged by the models to be west of me with a predominantly north/south trajectory over the full fetch of Lake Michigan. Porter and LaPorte Counties will be obliterated if this band sets up and stays for awhile. Yet I wonder if the strong winds might lead to more disbursement and multiple banding. We shall see.

[London snowsquall]

6z HIRES NMM 48 hour totals for the N IN LE/LES.

Hmmm. There is an interesting 1+ in. qpf band pointing SE from L. Huron and it seems to be pointing directly at me. How accurate does this model tend to be?

[Chicago WX]

Hmmm. There is an interesting 1+ in. qpf band pointing SE from L. Huron and it seems to be pointing directly at me. How accurate does this model tend to be?

In non LES scenarios, I think it runs a little high with QPF. Not sure in this instance with LE/LES, in regards to location and QPF.

[KeenerWx]

In non LES scenarios, I think it runs a little high with QPF. Not sure in this instance with LE/LES, in regards to location and QPF.

High and too extensive.

WRF is helpful in determining placement of band and approximate location of highest amounts. Generally, it tends to "spread the wealth" though, which isn't qualitative of LES events. Also, I would probably trim the amounts down by 1/3 to 1/2. If we were dealing with 2" of QPF, someone would be getting an excess of 40" of snow.

[London snowsquall]

High and too extensive.

WRF is helpful in determining placement of band and approximate location of highest amounts. Generally, it tends to "spread the wealth" though, which isn't qualitative of LES events. Also, I would probably trim the amounts down by 1/3 to 1/2. If we were dealing with 2" of QPF, someone would be getting an excess of 40" of snow.

Thanks for the info. Looks like we'll wait and see. Env. Canada is playing it cautious and saying they will define the precise targeted areas later, which makes sense. A 280-300 flow puts us under the gun.

[janetjanet998]

I think I see the first signs of a lake band off the IL shore moving into S cook county

[Thundersnow12]

I think I see the first signs of a lake band off the IL shore moving into S cook county

looks like it, nice view on the MDW terminal doppler

[KeenerWx]

Lake effect should really get going in the next three to six hours.

[Thundersnow12]

Mr. Timmer will be in nw IN tonight for this event.

[Hoosier]

Mr. Timmer will be in nw IN tonight for this event.

He chases snow too?

[OHSnow]

He chases snow too?

Geez, with the way he drives, I'd be terrified to be out on the snow-covered roads over there.

[Thundersnow12]

He chases snow too?

He grew up in the GRR area and has been doing it for years. some pretty intense videos over the years of them sitting under some heavy bands. Im sure he will have is vehicle out there too.

[janetjanet998]

picking up now should be on going for the Bears game

also Gary Indiana just gusted to 60MPH

[Hoosier]

picking up now should be on going for the Bears game

also Gary Indiana just gusted to 60MPH

and 25-30 dbz there for the forseeable future

[janetjanet998]

I Guess this can go in this thread now since this totalwillreally up the next 24 hours

0240 PM SNOW VALPARAISO 41.48N 87.05W

12/12/2010 M2.5 INCH PORTER IN NWS EMPLOYEE

STORM TOTAL SO FAR.SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING.

ESTIMATED VISIBILITY 1/4 TO 1/3 MILE.

[janetjanet998]

lotBACKTRACKING A BIT...AS WAS MENTIONED LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ARE

EVIDENT ON RADAR IMAGERY WITH SEVERAL STRONGER BANDS DRIVING INTO

LAKE AND PORTER COUNTIES INDIANA. WATER TEMPERATURES FOR THE

SOUTHERN SHORES OF LAKE MICHIGAN STILL IN THE MID 30S. 850MB THERMAL

TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT SETTING UP 15C DELTA T'S

FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW LAKE

SHOWERS WITH TOPS TO 10KFT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE BACKING

OFF A BIT AS THE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST. WINDS EXPECTED TO

SLOWLY BACK FROM THE NORTH TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS

WHICH WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE SNOWBAND. MODELS

CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE PORTER COUNTY INDIANA WILL BE ON THE

WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL...TOTAL SNOWFALL UP TO 20

INCHES. A LITTLE BIT TRICKY TO FIGURE AMOUNTS AS YOU HEAD WEST INTO

LAKE COUNTY INDIANA AND SOUTHEAST COOK COUNTY ILLINOIS. WINDS WILL

BE GUSTING IN EXCESS OF 30MPH INTO THE MORNING...SO WOULD EXPECT THE

BROAD AREA OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MORNING

BEFORE MORE ORGANIZED PLUME SETS UP. GENERALLY EXPECT TO SEE 4 TO

8 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS LAKE AND JASPER COUNTIES IN INDIANA...WITH

LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

[KeenerWx]

Heavy returns staying just north of me...literally...like 2 miles.

They refuse to pass the Kankakee River. Still, moderate snow and pretty gusty winds here right now.

[janetjanet998]

2 inches per hour rates

0244 PM HEAVY SNOW PORTAGE 41.59N 87.18W

12/12/2010 M2.0 INCH PORTER IN TRAINED SPOTTER

MEASURED IN 1 HOUR. BLIZZARD/WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIME

OF REPORT. ROADS EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS.

[janetjanet998]

heavy snow and 55 MPH winds is dropping trrees

0250 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG PORTAGE 41.59N 87.18W

12/12/2010 PORTER IN TRAINED SPOTTER

2 TRESS DOWN ALONG 500 W BLOCK

0246 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG PORTAGE 41.59N 87.18W

12/12/2010 PORTER IN TRAINED SPOTTER

LARGE TREE DOWN ACROSS SAMUELSON JUST NORTH OF CENTRAL.

TREE TOOK DOWN SOME POWER LINES.

0246 PM NON-TSTM WND GST PORTAGE 41.59N 87.18W

12/12/2010 M55 MPH PORTER IN TRAINED SPOTTER

[OHSnow]

This is the forecast for my hometown, per weather.com. Sounds pretty bad.

Dec 12 TonightOccasional snow showers. Low near 20F. Winds W at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of snow 70%. 1 to 2 inches of snow expected.

Dec 13 TomorrowOccasional snow showers. Very cold. High around 20F. Winds NW at 15 to 25 mph. Chance of snow 80%. Snow accumulating 5 to 8 inches.

Dec 13 Tomorrow nightBlustery with snow showers. Low 14F. Winds NW at 20 to 30 mph. Chance of snow 80%. Snow accumulating 5 to 8 inches.

Here's the Accuweather forecast:

Tonight Cloudy, becoming windier, blowing snow and colder with some snow, accumulating 1-2" Low 17.

Monday Mostly cloudy, windy and colder with some snow, accumulating an additional 6-10 inches High 25.

Monday night Overcast, windy and cold with snow showers, accumulating an additional 1-2 inches Low 14.

[janetjanet998]

VALPARAISO HVY SNOW 29 26 89 N23G45 29.58R VSB 1/4 WCI

[OHSnow]

I also used the Accuweather forecast snow amounts for YNG and added it to the current snow and came up with 54.4" for the month by December 26. The current snowiest month on record is January 1999 with 36.4 inches.

[KeenerWx]

Very heavy snow here currently...

Decided to make a trip to the gas station. Only about 2 miles away and the whole trip took 45 minutes. I think they pulled the plows, because the roads are drifted over and you can't really decipher between the road and surrounding fields/yards. Of course, I live in a rural area so blowing of snow is going to be a bit worse.