Hoosier Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Yeah, latest trends want to keep the band in or near the extreme NW corner of Indiana (and points southward) for an extended period of time. Definitely believe Lafayette will get a little boost from this event. The only thing keeping me from sounding the red flag is the flow strength (mentioned this in the other thread). With that said, I definitely think 1'+ across LaPorte/Berrien Counties. Everything else is a wildcard to me at this point, but the whole northern 1/3rd of Indiana looks to benefit from modest lake accumulations. I just think there are too many compensating factors in this case...not saying the excessive low level flow shouldn't be factored in but all other parameters are excellent to outstanding. These are always a learning experience though and this one will be no different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 I just think there are too many compensating factors in this case...not saying the excessive low level flow shouldn't be factored in but all other parameters are excellent to outstanding. These are always a learning experience though and this one will be no different. No, I agree completely. This one will be especially interesting and fun to watch. Wonder when the last "analog" for this type of event was...(analog being used loosely) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 The more I look at this the more I think we could see about 1-3" of lake effect snow in LAF. The NAM omega plume extends all the way through this area with 40-50 kt N/NNW flow at 925 mb with favorably moist profiles. Other than the rarity of such an event, there's no reason to not believe it if the model progs are accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted December 11, 2010 Author Share Posted December 11, 2010 The flow will all depend on how far North and Northeast this low makes it, which I think there is still some uncertainty regarding the exact placement/track of the low after it gets past the Ohio Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 aforementioned omega from the IWX wrf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 so, uhh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 so, uhh Yes please! That would give me at least 6 inches! Over a foot all the way through Clinton County?! Wow. Maybe overdone who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Yes please! That would give me at least 6 inches! Over a foot all the way through Clinton County?! Wow. Maybe overdone who knows. Oh, definitely overdone. If that rings true, I will walk back to Lafayette on I-65 butt naked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Yes please! That would give me at least 6 inches! Over a foot all the way through Clinton County?! Wow. Maybe overdone who knows. I'd almost bet it's overdone with the southward extent of those really heavy amounts. That would go far and beyond anything I can recall. I think the main takeaway is that there's going to be heavy amounts pretty far inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Its not possible to zoom out just a bit? I'd love to see further south, overdone or not its nice to look at! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted December 11, 2010 Author Share Posted December 11, 2010 INZ050-058-059-066-073-074-OHZ042-051>053-060>062-070>072-077- 120415- /O.NEW.KILN.WW.Y.0008.101212T1800Z-101213T1600Z/ WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-DARKE-MIAMI- CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON- HAMILTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...RICHMOND...CONNERSVILLE...LIBERTY... BROOKVILLE...VERSAILLES...LAWRENCEBURG...GREENVILLE...PIQUA... URBANA...SPRINGFIELD...EATON...DAYTON...XENIA...HAMILTON... LEBANON...WILMINGTON...CINCINNATI 303 PM EST SAT DEC 11 2010 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 11 AM EST MONDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 11 AM EST MONDAY. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SUNDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL SNOW CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE 3 TO 5 INCHES. IT IS ALSO EXPECTED THAT A MORE INTENSE BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. WHILE THE EXACT LOCATION OF THIS BAND OF SNOWFALL IS UNCERTAIN...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS A PORTION OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH WIND GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW MEANS THAT VISIBILITIES WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO A COMBINATION OF FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW. USE CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHWxWatcher Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 303 PM EST SAT DEC 11 2010 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 11 AM EST MONDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 11 AM EST MONDAY. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SUNDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL SNOW CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE 3 TO 5 INCHES. IT IS ALSO EXPECTED THAT A MORE INTENSE BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. WHILE THE EXACT LOCATION OF THIS BAND OF SNOWFALL IS UNCERTAIN...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS A PORTION OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH WIND GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW MEANS THAT VISIBILITIES WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO A COMBINATION OF FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW. USE CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS. I'm curious as to just how much any LES bands that do make it this far south would increase snow totals . . . presumably not more than an inch or two? Granted the core of the WWA deals with the blowing and I suppose any moisture transported this far south will compound all the blowing around anyhow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 INZ050-058-059-066-073-074-OHZ042-051>053-060>062-070>072-077- 120415- /O.NEW.KILN.WW.Y.0008.101212T1800Z-101213T1600Z/ WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-DARKE-MIAMI- CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON- HAMILTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...RICHMOND...CONNERSVILLE...LIBERTY... BROOKVILLE...VERSAILLES...LAWRENCEBURG...GREENVILLE...PIQUA... URBANA...SPRINGFIELD...EATON...DAYTON...XENIA...HAMILTON... LEBANON...WILMINGTON...CINCINNATI 303 PM EST SAT DEC 11 2010 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 11 AM EST MONDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 11 AM EST MONDAY. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SUNDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL SNOW CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE 3 TO 5 INCHES. IT IS ALSO EXPECTED THAT A MORE INTENSE BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. WHILE THE EXACT LOCATION OF THIS BAND OF SNOWFALL IS UNCERTAIN...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS A PORTION OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH WIND GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW MEANS THAT VISIBILITIES WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO A COMBINATION OF FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW. USE CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS. Something I was thinking about...can IND even issue lake effect snow advisories? I thought that certain NWS offices only had certain products at their disposal. Perhaps that's incorrect or perhaps things have changed. Can't wait to see what IWX does. I think White and Cass counties have a shot at warning criteria snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted December 11, 2010 Author Share Posted December 11, 2010 Something I was thinking about...can IND even issue lake effect snow advisories? I thought that certain NWS offices only had certain products at their disposal. Perhaps that's incorrect or perhaps things have changed. Can't wait to see what IWX does. I think White and Cass counties have a shot at warning criteria snowfall. IWX leaves White and Cass and the rest of their Southern and Eastern CWA under an advisory. Amounts in their grids flirt with warning criteria, however I would assume they went with an advisory due to the long nature of the storm. The rest of their CWA was upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 IWX leaves White and Cass and the rest of their Southern and Eastern CWA under an advisory. Amounts in their grids flirt with warning criteria, however I would assume they went with an advisory due to the long nature of the storm. The rest of their CWA was upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning. IWX has total accumulations of 5-10" for White county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 IWX leaves White and Cass and the rest of their Southern and Eastern CWA under an advisory. Amounts in their grids flirt with warning criteria, however I would assume they went with an advisory due to the long nature of the storm. The rest of their CWA was upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning. Uncertainty probably plays a role, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 I think Lake county Indiana could get hammered pretty good before it shifts farther east. Would not be surprised if amounts need to be raised there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 I think Lake county Indiana could get hammered pretty good before it shifts farther east. Would not be surprised if amounts need to be raised there. Trends certainly suggesting Lake County could get some hefty totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 New zones suggest 4-8" here, 5-9" Lake County, 7-11" Porter County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 New zones suggest 4-8" here, 5-9" Lake County, 7-11" Porter County Although the winter storm warning is mentioning 10-15" with locally higher amounts for Porter county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 I'm sure most of you guys know this, but the WRF has a bias for backing the winds too much. Just something to consider. I would definitely want to be on the eastern side of where it depicts the heavy snowfall. Looking like an epic event of off L MI... not so sure about erie. You guys will have the benefit of an extremely long fetch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northernohio Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 accuweather has even westside of CLE in 12-24+ inch snow totals from Lake Effect lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 I'm sure most of you guys know this, but the WRF has a bias for backing the winds too much. Just something to consider. I would definitely want to be on the eastern side of where it depicts the heavy snowfall. Looking like an epic event of off L MI... not so sure about erie. You guys will have the benefit of an extremely long fetch. Yep! It's all going to come down to where this low ends up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 so, uhh lol, that's fantastic. Even if we could get 1-3" of LES here, as Hoosier thinks is possible, that'd be pretty unbelievable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 lol, that's fantastic. Even if we could get 1-3" of LES here, as Hoosier thinks is possible, that'd be pretty unbelievable. I think 1-3" is very doable, whether it's pure les or lake enhanced. We know that 2" or maybe 3" looks likely from the storm itself so it comes down to how much the lake offers up. I feel about as confident at forecasting "significant" lake snow here as I would forecasting snow in Miami, but if we get that boost, then I could see combined totals in the 4-6" range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted December 11, 2010 Author Share Posted December 11, 2010 I spoke to one of the mets from ILN earlier and Hoosier was indeed right, at least as far as ILN goes, they cannot issue LES watch, advisory and warning products. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 I think 1-3" is very doable, whether it's pure les or lake enhanced. We know that 2" or maybe 3" looks likely from the storm itself so it comes down to how much the lake offers up. I feel about as confident at forecasting "significant" lake snow here as I would forecasting snow in Miami, but if we get that boost, then I could see combined totals in the 4-6" range. Good analogy. But yeah it may be a combo of backside/LE that does the trick. Should be fun to watch unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 I spoke to one of the mets from ILN earlier and Hoosier was indeed right, at least as far as ILN goes, they cannot issue LES watch, advisory and warning products. Ha, good stuff. Says something about the unusual nature of this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 accuweather has even westside of CLE in 12-24+ inch snow totals from Lake Effect lmao I have never seen a forecast accumulation map for LES look like that before. I think for us on the west shore, we'll have to hope for some enhancement for snow, as the strong northerly winds will push snow inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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