AppsRunner Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Basically only left with the DGEX and 12z UKMET with any decent amplification storm... if the northern stream doesn't kill that s/w maybe there'd be something to work with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted October 23, 2011 Author Share Posted October 23, 2011 Godspeed on this one...moving on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Godspeed on this one...moving on! Cancelling a potential storm that is still several days out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted October 23, 2011 Author Share Posted October 23, 2011 Cancelling a potential storm that is still several days out? Never said cancel. I'm simply moving my attention elsewhere until I see something tasty. We all come back! No one ever just walks away from a potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Never said cancel. I'm simply moving my attention elsewhere until I see something tasty. We all come back! No one ever just walks away from a potential. You on the last system, several days out (for a thread that you started, like this one): Won't matter thermal profiles aloft are gonna screw us. Even if we manage to get enough precip. Angry is right. This one is dead in the water. Lol if this storm ends up panning out, you're gonna have to do this every storm. It's good luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Cancelling a potential storm that is still several days out? Great start to the Lakes/OV forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted October 23, 2011 Author Share Posted October 23, 2011 You on the last system, several days out (for a thread that you started, like this one): Lol if this storm ends up panning out, you're gonna have to do this every storm. It's good luck Nice. History repeats itself. I bet a penny the 00z suit will impress and we get that amplification we have been craving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Per IWX and BUF, the models may try to bring this one back to some degree. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 As I suspected, the STJ energy dug further west than earlier forecasted, but the northern stream didn't so the energy pretty much becames cutoff and useless. Maybe it will come back, but this type of setup in the winter usually would be a icestorm type of setup I think, not major phasing storm Not expecting much unless that trough sets up further west... never like to see a positive tilt H5 trough where it's positioned now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Per IWX and BUF, the models may try to bring this one back to some degree. We shall see. im not holding my breath. see no emoticons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 im not holding my breath. see no emoticons. Yeah. Based on the 0z runs, I think we'll have to settle on a progressive wave riding the polar front. That kicker dropping out of the prairies around 66-72 hours is not going to allow the flow to amplify. SpartyOn should change the dates in the title. Looks like the 27-28th is more appropriate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Yeah. Based on the 0z runs, I think we'll have to settle on a progressive wave riding the polar front. That kicker dropping out of the prairies around 66-72 hours is not going to allow the flow to amplify. SpartyOn should change the dates in the title. Looks like the 27-28th is more appropriate. Maybe next event we could get within the 5 day window before a thread I just think this thread came too quick not to say the threat isn't over but its very close to being over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Maybe next event we could get within the 5 day window before a thread I just think this thread came too quick not to say the threat isn't over but its very close to being over. Honestly, I don't have a problem with it. Keeps the general thread from having different streams of conversation flowing every which way. And what's the worse thing that happened? We had a brief chat about a now moribund storm. No harm done. So long as it's within ~D7, I think any potential storm is fair game for it's own thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Honestly, I don't have a problem with it. Keeps the general thread from having different streams of conversation flowing every which way. And what's the worse thing that happened? We had a brief chat about a now moribund storm. No harm done. So long as it's within ~D7, I think any potential storm is fair game for it's own thread. Maybe I am superstitious but I find unless its a slam dunk I don't get too excited about a potential unless its within 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Maybe I am superstitious but I find unless its a slam dunk I don't get too excited about a potential unless its within 5 days. And let's be honest, it's a snow thing. You won't see too many storm threads about a D7 traditional fall rainstorm (leaving svr wx out of the equation). The reason I and a few others had our interests' piqued was because there was at least a not-unreasonable chance for some snow, had the storm developed like the EURO/GFS were showing 48 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 NWS BUF ECMWF IS FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. BOTH ARE ALSO INDICATING 1000-500THICKNESS BELOW 530DM AND 850MB TEMPS AT OR BELOW -6C. SUCH THAT BOTH MODELS ARE SHOWING STRONG SIGNATURE OF WINTRY WEATHER…WILL HAVE A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW ACROSS ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT…AND IF ONE WERE TO ACCEPT THE EC SOLUTION THEN OUR FORECAST AREA WOULD BE IN FOR AN ACCUMULATING SNOW DURING THURSDAY NIGHT…ESPECIALLY AS ECMWF QPF IS ON THE ORDER OF MORE THAN A HALF INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT. WILL WAIT TO SEE HOW THIS PANS OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 ECM gets a late phase in with the s/w in the plains and ends up spawning a huge coastal hugger... so it's not completely lost in the models now. UKMET also does the same... GFS basically loses the energy by 72hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 fail I'd be happy if i get some flakes out of this one lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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