SpartyOn Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 Go. Model guidance once again showing what appears to be the basics for a Fall system. Needs time to be hammered out but it looks like we might be tracking this. Let's not use the " S " word. Yet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 Well, it could be a white Halloween in the Louisville/South Indiana area if this proves to be true LOL The 500mb Vortmax here that may end up being the main cause of the potential snowfall in the Ohio Valley. Unreal LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 Well, it could be a white Halloween in the Louisville/South Indiana area if this proves to be true LOL The 500mb Vortmax here that may end up being the main cause of the potential snowfall in the Ohio Valley. Unreal LOL Lol. Any potential for white stuff (I won't type the "S" word until November) will end up being closer to Chicago or Detroit than Louisville. It's looking like it will be another fun system to track though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 Yes indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 Excellent discussion from Jon Hitchcock out of NWS Buffalo regarding the potential for late next week: LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/ AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE LOWER LAKES REGION. THIS WILL BRING YET ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS... ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS LOOK RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE FEED FROM THE SOUTH GIVEN THE FAST MOTION OF THE SYSTEM AND ZONAL NATURE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME. BY THURSDAY EXTENSIVE SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. THIS SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO DRY OUT THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST SOME LIGHT QPF POSSIBLY HANGING NEAR THE PA/NY STATE LINE. TEMPS WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY BY THURSDAY AS A CHILLY AIRMASS PUSHES STEADILY SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK THE FORECAST BECOMES MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN AND MUCH MORE INTERESTING. THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC FLOW REGIME REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF VERY ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. A WELL DEFINED MJO EPISODE IS ORBITING THROUGH PHASE 2 OF THE WHEELER PHASE/SPACE PLOT...WHICH SUPPORTS BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIP IN THE EASTERN US. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS...A ROSSBY WAVE DISPERSION RECENTLY TOOK PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN PACIFIC...WHICH IS LEADING TO STRONG PATTERN AMPLIFICATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE PACIFIC TODAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE DOWNSTREAM...WITH THE VAST MAJORITY OF MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA LATE NEXT WEEK WITH A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A SIGNIFICANT EVENT LATE NEXT WEEK...THE TIMING AND TRACK DETAILS REMAIN VERY UNCERTAIN. THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF REMAINS CONSISTENT IN TAKING A STRONG LOW BY JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...WITH A SIGNIFICANT EARLY SEASON WET SNOW A POSSIBILITY. THE GFS HAS BEEN FLIP FLOPPING FROM RUN TO RUN...WITH THE LATEST 12Z RUN TAKING A SUPPRESSED LOW TO OUR SOUTH WITH JUST SOME LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A LOOK AT THE 12Z GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW A WIDE VARIETY OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS WITH SOME MEMBERS TAKING STRONG A STRONG LOW OVER OR JUST WEST OF WESTERN NY IN A CLASSIC GREAT LAKES CUTTER TRACK...AND SOME CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. GIVEN THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES AT THIS TIME RANGE...WILL SIMPLY GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY FOR NOW WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING WELL BELOW AVERAGE. IT WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO GROW ON THE DETAILS...BUT THIS CERTAINLY BEARS WATCHING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted October 22, 2011 Author Share Posted October 22, 2011 ^ been a while since I've seen a AFD use the S word. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 Here is the long-term Area Forecast Discussion from the NWS in Cleveland at 349pm this afternoon... LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/ A WARM FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. BEGINNING WED IN THE LONG TERM BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THURSDAY...BUT THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH BOTH MODELS PICKING UP ON A RATHER STRONG UPPER TROUGH WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER IN THE WEEK. GFS AND LATEST ECMWF SHOWING RATHER DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS WITH THE GFS FURTHER SOUTH WHILE ECMWF HAS LOW IMPACTING THE AREA. GIVEN THE INCONSISTENCY AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHC POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. DEPENDING ON INTENSITY OF THE LOW AND IT/S TRACK THE ECMWF QUITE A BIT COLDER COMPARED TO GFS. GIVEN THIS EVENT IS AT THE VERY END OF THE FCST PERIOD WILL MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST COMPARED TO LATEST MEX TEMPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 still early but the usual winter thread starters should be starting the threads as we head into winter for superstitious purposes IMO , no offense to Sparty 12z GEM at 144hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 Excellent discussion from Jon Hitchcock out of NWS Buffalo regarding the potential for late next week: Jon Hitchcock is an excellent met. He used to forecast at IWX. He really knows his stuff concerning LES. IWX's loss is Buffalo's gain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted October 22, 2011 Author Share Posted October 22, 2011 still early but the usual winter thread starters should be starting the threads as we head into winter for superstitious purposes IMO , no offense to Sparty 12z GEM at 144hr None taken.. Chi Storm is due! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 FYI and FWIW, 06z GFS would have been all snow and a nice hit for much of lower Michigan, far NE Indiana and far NW Ohio. We would probably start out as a snow/mix here before transitioning to rain, especially east of US-23. But even then we would have gotten some reasonable wrap around thanks to the strong height falls. This is all based on the 1300m thickness values BTW, usually a good measure for the rain/snow line IMO. It'll be an interesting system to watch. EDIT: I understand everything about the verbatim and off-run mess, but it still nice eye candy considering that time of year is almost here. See for yourselves. If it did happen, then let it come on the weekend please. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/g...now174.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 FYI and FWIW, 06z GFS would have been all snow and a nice hit for much of lower Michigan, far NE Indiana and far NW Ohio. We would probably start out as a snow/mix here before transitioning to rain, especially east of US-23. But even then we would have gotten some reasonable wrap around thanks to the strong height falls. This is all based on the 1300m thickness values BTW, usually a good measure for the rain/snow line IMO. It'll be an interesting system to watch. EDIT: I understand everything about the vferbatim and off-run mess, but it still nice eye candy considering that time of year is almost year. See for yourselves. If it did happen, then let it come on the weekend please. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/g...now174.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 still early but the usual winter thread starters should be starting the threads as we head into winter for superstitious purposes IMO , no offense to Sparty 12z GEM at 144hr Ends up with a weakening low moving along the OH River... UKMET is a lot more progressive with this system. ECMWF has a weak surface wave moving across the Apps, some precip over IN/OH. EPS control has a Miller B/Inland runner hybrid... you would drool over the amount of cold air it has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 Also, 06z GFS BUFKIT accumulated snowfall for Lansing and Jackson was already at 12-14" at the end and still skyrocketing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 FYI and FWIW, 06z GFS would have been all snow and a nice hit for much of lower Michigan, far NE Indiana and far NW Ohio. We would probably start out as a snow/mix here before transitioning to rain, especially east of US-23. But even then we would have gotten some reasonable wrap around thanks to the strong height falls. This is all based on the 1300m thickness values BTW, usually a good measure for the rain/snow line IMO. It'll be an interesting system to watch. EDIT: I understand everything about the verbatim and off-run mess, but it still nice eye candy considering that time of year is almost here. See for yourselves. If it did happen, then let it come on the weekend please. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/g...now174.gif All you need to hope is that it hangs on for three or four more days, then you can start feeling confident it isn't a dream run. Seriously, I'm curious, were there any fantasy runs that showed big snowstorms this early in the region last year? How rare is it for the GFS to show a winter storm in fantasy land in late October? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Very interesting thread to read since I plan to be in the Madison In to Cincy area Oct. 31-Nov. 2 then up to Frankenmuth MI region for the balance of the first week of November. Will be watching what develops closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Yet another disco throwing that s word around - IWX: A SOUTHERN STREAM POSITIVE PV ANOMALY WILL PIVOT THROUGH BASE OF TROUGH INTO THE SRN PLAINS AND MID/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY BY LATE THURSDAY/FRIDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT ANOTHER FALL MID LATITUDE CYCLONE SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AROUND FRIDAY. INTENSITY/TRACK/AMPLITUDE OF THIS WAVE AND ITS POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH ANOTHER NRN STREAM WAVE ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. A CONSENSUS FAVORS LOW POPS ATTM LOCALLY WITH IMPACTS FROM A DEEPENING SFC CYCLONE PRIMARILY MISSING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THIS IS DEFINITELY WORTH WATCHING AS SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES COULD SEE SOME SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM IF A MORE AMPLIFIED/PHASED SOLUTION (SEEN IN SOME ENSEMBLE DATA) VERIFIES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 some pretty healthy looking systems on the 12z GFS ensembles at D7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 some pretty healthy looking systems on the 12z GFS ensembles at D7 Some nice looking maps. But accumulating October snow here is bad juju in my book. Chances, for LAF anyways, will be slim regardless... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Even the farther north maps aren't snow, just a blob of cold rain. Yeah, October snow is useless. You should cancel this storm too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 lol. You really are pulling for the snowstorm aren't you? How about I call for a historically warm December. After my July and October flops, it may pan out lol. Not at all...see a couple posts upstream. Rainstorms are just fine. And yes it probably wouldn't hurt if you called for a torch winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 some pretty healthy looking systems on the 12z GFS ensembles at D7 The first seven 500 mb ensembles would certainly suggest a svr threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Well the 00z GFS just took a step closer to the EURO wrt to end of week storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted October 23, 2011 Author Share Posted October 23, 2011 Even the farther north maps aren't snow, just a blob of cold rain. Yeah, October snow is useless. I understand your passion but don't run cuz of 1 weird day in model world. What we know now is consistent. The overall consensus is a deepening system to traverse the GL region late next week. I personally won't even think about precip type until 3 days. Either way we could have another powerful system to entertain us. Frozen precip is a plus but so is incredible amounts of wind driven rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Well the 00z GFS just took a step closer to the EURO wrt to end of week storm GFS is just always 12hrs behind the EURO or at least it has been recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Well the 00z GFS just took a step closer to the EURO wrt to end of week storm Not sure you can really say it took a step closer to the Euro when it hasn't been consistent with this storm either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Will be interesting to see if this thing ends up being merely a mirage, or whether this is just one of those times where the models collectively lose a storm, only to bring it back 24-48 hours later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted October 23, 2011 Author Share Posted October 23, 2011 And the off run 6z is nothing to write home about. Looking like some LES is possible through Lk Superior. Im banking that the guidance will once again pull a rabit outta of a hat..But I wont put $ on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Here is the long-term Area Forecast Discussion from the NWS in Cleveland as of 1220pm edt today... LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/ THE MODELS ARE SIMILAR FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND THE FORECAST REMAINS PRETTY MUCH THE SAME. AFTER THE COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY... A WAVE DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT AND A COLD RAIN LIKELY DEVELOPS ON THURSDAY. JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE SURFACE LOW OR INVERTED TROUGH MOVES IS UNSURE BUT GIVEN THE STRONG POSITIVELY TILTED JET AND THE SHALLOW NORTH FLOW OF COLD BOUNDARY LAYER AIR... THERE SHOULD BE A LARGE AREA OF OVER RUNNING RAIN. AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THURSDAY NIGHT... THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE IS PROGGED TO DROP TO ABOUT -4C WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AROUND +2C. THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DRY OUT QUITE A BIT BUT THERE IS ROOM IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER FOR LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION. WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS NE OH/NW PA. BRIEF RIDGING APPEARS ON TRACK FOR FRIDAY ALTHOUGH SOME LAKE EFFECT COULD LINGER ACROSS EXTREME NE OH/NW PA. YET ANOTHER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DIG ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES SEEMINGLY WILL NOT HAVE A CHANCE TO RECOVER MUCH IF AT ALL AND HIGHS WILL HOLD MAINLY IN THE 40S WITH LOWS IN THE 30S THROUGH THE PERIOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Models now seem to want to keep the northern stream dominant during the period where that s/w is attempting to eject out of the SW, essentially squashing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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