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SNE Late October Obs/Banter


ski MRG

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Looking at the 165 hour prog on the sv maps, this event is a month early but reminds me of 11/29/95. For that reason, snow will likely be far more scarce outside of elevated areas but I like the pattern transition.

That's a hell of a storm on the GFS even if we wouldn't see much if any snow out of it.

Yes it really murders us in the later panels. 6 weeks later and we're positively buried.

Impressive as heck, the back is broken Jerry. Good call on the change, keep those 95 analogs coming

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What's most significant with this 00z GFS run I think is that it's very clear it's going to be big, early on. Hr120 has every sign of a major storm developing from the plains to the east coast. What happens beyond that point will vary with each run, but what matters is this loading pattern. Fun times ahead

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What's most significant with this 00z GFS run I think is that it's very clear it's going to be big, early on. Hr120 has every sign of a major storm developing from the plains to the east coast. What happens beyond that point will vary with each run, but what matters is this loading pattern. Fun times ahead

The total absorption of a hurricane into a Extrop bomb is always cool.

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The GFS would be close to the damaging wind storm Kevin has been posting about for 5 years that has yet to materialize.

Yeah decent high over Nova Scotia with a 988mb off ACY. Dec '92-esque in the placement...but high is about 10mb weaker. Still would be some big winds verbatim though on the GFS.

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Yeah decent high over Nova Scotia with a 988mb off ACY. Dec '92-esque in the placement...but high is about 10mb weaker. Still would be some big winds verbatim though on the GFS.

Occurring in late Oct vs mid Dec will help a bit in offsetting the weaker pgrad with warmer SSTs and better mixing me thinks.

Obviously just fantasy talk now but interesting solutions lol

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Occurring in late Oct vs mid Dec will help a bit in offsetting the weaker pgrad with warmer SSTs and better mixing me thinks.

Obviously just fantasy talk now but interesting solutions lol

If we can still have some of these big solutions still on the table by Monday, then I think we could start taking it more seriously. Its nice that they have shown up off and on and on different models.

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Yes it would start as snow.

I just think the chances of snow are near nil without an arctic airmass. We need the storm to wait until later as that low crosses the Northwest Territories and finally blasts some colder air across Hudson Bay, but that doesn't appear to be happening. Otherwise we're basically relying on threading the needle, and we've seen a tendency this fall for troughs to be much further west than modeled. I could see this storm being a much bigger threat for the Mid-Atlantic Appalachians than New England, but of course it's still so far out.

As you say, GFS looks super mild in the long range. +EPO continues with the vortex setting back into N Canada, which has been the pattern lately. It seems as if we're having trouble getting away from the Iceland block with low height anomalies over Baffin Island and the Archipelago.

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moneypitdave?

:lmao:

Could be qpf issues in Hubbardston.

:lol:

That one pic was of the upper part of Redline, not the best cover that day. Magic needs a healthy snowpack to make the steep stuff viable. When its good its really good though. I always travel with a pair of rock skis or two. There is something very liberating about skiing boards that you can trash.

Sort of like a beater-truck.

Yeah decent high over Nova Scotia with a 988mb off ACY. Dec '92-esque in the placement...but high is about 10mb weaker. Still would be some big winds verbatim though on the GFS.

Uh-oh. I wonder how many people will latch onto that reference for the next week.........

Is 180 snow for Rindge?

post-475-0-62801100-1319260449.gif

Yup--and for some of your neighbors into Mass. Too bad whatever's depicted there gets completely washed into oblivion shortly thereafter. NYS on the other hand......???

46.8/40, up from 46.0. Looks like a day of pretty stagnant weather. Picking up the new cat today, FTL; starting up on cutting/splitting of my trees, FTW.

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