CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 2-6 with lolli's to 8 seems legit for now LOL, well still some details to work out, but seems a little more likely that parts of the area will have their first flakes and possibly accumulating snow. I still want to see the 12z runs, but from Will on north, I'd begin to be a little more interested. Verbatim, the euro is a little warm at 850 for you. You don't want it that far north, but you would end as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 LOL, well still some details to work out, but seems a little more likely that parts of the area will have their first flakes and possibly accumulating snow. I still want to see the 12z runs, but from Will on north, I'd begin to be a little more interested. Verbatim, the euro is a little warm at 850 for you. You don't want it that far north, but you would end as snow. Still have a split camp on the track between the Euro and the GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted October 24, 2011 Author Share Posted October 24, 2011 30/30, frosty, Glad Dendrite's bug perished. Go snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Still have a split camp on the track between the Euro and the GFS... Yeah well even the 06z GFS would be good for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted October 24, 2011 Author Share Posted October 24, 2011 Schweet. Thursday Night: Rain and snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 32. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 41. Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 28. Saturday: Partly sunny, with a high near 43. Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Bob got to at least 30 last night. Congrats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Yeah well even the 06z GFS would be good for you. Little more precip on the gfs runs, But we are still to far out for that yet, Looks like some will see snow now is a real good bet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 36.5 this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 29 here....coldest morning of the year and not forecasted to be this cold. Stepping down quickly is what it feels like as the leaves disappear quickly and my carrots weep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 2-6 with lolli's to 8 seems legit for now You crack me up. I suspect many of us will see some flakes and a few of us a minor accumulation. But we are looking at any flakes coming on a changeover from rain and landing on unfrozen ground. This is NOT a recipe for your legitimate accumulations. At least away from the Berks (perhaps extreme NW CT?) and heading NE from their into VT, NH (outside of the Manchester/Nashua/seacaost of course) and into interior ME. I don't know if lollies at 4000' can really count as a lolli. Of course, I could be dead wrong. Made my closest run to freezing this morning--33.8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 You crack me up. I suspect many of us will see some flakes and a few of us a minor accumulation. But we are looking at any flakes coming on a changeover from rain and landing on unfrozen ground. This is NOT a recipe for your legitimate accumulations. At least away from the Berks (perhaps extreme NW CT?) and heading NE from their into VT, NH (outside of the Manchester/Nashua/seacaost of course) and into interior ME. I don't know if lollies at 4000' can really count as a lolli. Of course, I could be dead wrong. Made my closest run to freezing this morning--33.8. It would be a wet snow which can stick. Foxboro got a freak 3" back on 10/18/09. Now if it's just a few flakes, then yeah it will be tough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 You crack me up. I suspect many of us will see some flakes and a few of us a minor accumulation. But we are looking at any flakes coming on a changeover from rain and landing on unfrozen ground. This is NOT a recipe for your legitimate accumulations. At least away from the Berks (perhaps extreme NW CT?) and heading NE from their into VT, NH (outside of the Manchester/Nashua/seacaost of course) and into interior ME. I don't know if lollies at 4000' can really count as a lolli. Of course, I could be dead wrong. Made my closest run to freezing this morning--33.8. If there ends up being snow out of this, It will have a hard time accumulating on the warm ground surface.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 It would be a wet snow which can stick. Foxboro got a freak 3" back on 10/18/09. Now if it's just a few flakes, then yeah it will be tough. True, true. How are the surface temps liekly to compare with this to that October event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 True, true. How are the surface temps liekly to compare with this to that October event? Well it will probably drop close to 32 if you flip to snow. I care more about upstairs right now...like 950mb to 850mb. Basically 2000ft to 5000ft or so. On the euro, it seems like temps in that layer are borderline almost to the pike until very late in the game, but like I said earlier...it would cool quickly as the low departs for maybe a brief burst to snow even down into nrn CT. But things may change a bit which would have a big impact on the final outcome so it is way too early to do anything more than just discuss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 As some would say, Todays 12z runs will be the biggest of our lives, Thats until the 0z runs tonight.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 If there ends up being snow out of this, It will have a hard time accumulating on the warm ground surface.. The issue is not ground temp it is snowfall rate. If it falls moderately or heavily it will accumulate with no problem. Especially given that temps will be falling and it will be at night. As Scott said Foxboro, way down south, got 3 inches in mid-Oct. There will be no problem getting accumulation in the interior. That being said I assume some flakes and maybe a coating will be waiting for me Friday morning. It is Oct after all. But if the storm is stronger and the precip is heavier then we will have no problem accumulating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 The issue is not ground temp it is snowfall rate. If it falls moderately or heavily it will accumulate with no problem. Especially given that temps will be falling and it will be at night. As Scott said Foxboro, way down south, got 3 inches in mid-Oct. There will be no problem getting accumulation in the interior. That being said I assume some flakes and maybe a coating will be waiting for me Friday morning. It is Oct after all. But if the storm is stronger and the precip is heavier then we will have no problem accumulating. Yes, Snowfall rates will be key, But if snowfall rates are light with this storm it would have a tough time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Yes, Snowfall rates will be key, But if snowfall rates are light with this storm it would have a tough time I'm increasingly confident that I'll see some flakes out of this. Now if only the temp profile will concide with qpf....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 I'm increasingly confident that I'll see some flakes out of this. Now if only the temp profile will concide with qpf....... lol, It certainly is starting to look that way mike, I think you will see some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 GYX tossed a mention of out there for the in there extended this am.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Beautiful morning, got down to 36 last night which is the coldest of the season. Congrats to the northern kingdom and ski country! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 cold this morning, I think coldest so far, at least it felt that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Beautiful morning, got down to 36 last night which is the coldest of the season. Congrats to the northern kingdom and ski country! Ended Summer?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Ended Summer?? It comes crashing down late week.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Gotta love the first snow of the season ....gettting excited about a coating (hopefully more) of snow 3.5 days ahead of time ftw. A little early...but anyone have any idea on timing? I'd like not to have to stay up all night Thursday for a coating of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Etauntonma started the first thread! Lets move it there before the juju runs out.. it needs people to maintain its special jujuness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 30/30, frosty, Glad Dendrite's bug perished. Go snow! Me too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 24 October the year 11 BDR +2 BOS +2 BDL -2 PVD -2 ORH +1 Normal day in SNE, tomorrow will be 5-10 above normal, at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 24 October the year 11 BDR +2 BOS +2 BDL -2 PVD -2 ORH +1 Normal day in SNE, tomorrow will be 5-10 above normal, at least Depending on how low temps get this weekend, looks like we will be cutting into mid november Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Depending on how low temps get this weekend, looks like we will be cutting into mid november Its crazy, but I think we get a couple frosts that will really stunt growth over the next week up here, and perhaps a freeze, some of my lawns are starting to go dormant, while others are thriving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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