weatherMA Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Yeah, But you miss the roller coaster ride when each panel comes out.. I still experience it. Instead of looking at the euro, I read the posts here, then look at it after. Much more fun to experience the roller coaster ride here first. (plus I can't interpret it very well on my own) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 I still experience it. Instead of looking at the euro, I read the posts here, then look at it after. Much more fun to experience the roller coaster ride here first. (plus I can't interpret it very well on my own) I have superstitions on whether to look at the model before the forum or to looks at the forum then the model. I usually tell my self to look at the model first then go to the forum but thats hard to do WRT to overnight models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 I still experience it. Instead of looking at the euro, I read the posts here, then look at it after. Much more fun to experience the roller coaster ride here first. (plus I can't interpret it very well on my own) Its amazing how the mood swings are on here when the track shifts north or south on every model run....lol, I usually run the surface map and the H5 map side by side at the same time to follow the evolution of the system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Well the GFS ensembles are still pretty far north taking the low across SNE. Pretty big difference in models for 4 days out. Might see some sort of a compromise. I'm feeling a little better about this not going up the Hudson Valley though... I think someone in New England sees some snow. I just want to go skiing this weekend, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 I'm feeling a little better about this not going up the Hudson Valley though... I think someone in New England sees some snow. I just want to go skiing this weekend, haha. Rock skis.....ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 I have this one for the GFS: http://www.stormmoni...om/gfscomp.html I'll have to work on one for the NAM. I also created pages to compare different levels of the runs. I find that can be helpful too. GFS: http://www.stormmoni...com/gfs_0Z.html http://www.stormmoni...om/gfs_06Z.html http://www.stormmoni...om/gfs_12Z.html http://www.stormmoni...om/gfs_18Z.html NAM: http://www.stormmoni...com/nam_0Z.html http://www.stormmoni...om/nam_06Z.html http://www.stormmoni...om/nam_12Z.html http://www.stormmoni...om/nam_18Z.html All of these can be found at the bottom of my quick "storm monitoring" links at http://www.stormmonitoring.com/ in the models section. Some of the links are specific to my needs, but if they're helpful to others, feel free to use them. I try and keep them updated. Dave This is sweet! Thanks dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Rock skis.....ftw All I need is 3-4" on the mountain. Each of the last 4 season's I've been able to ski in October, most of those years with significant 12"+ snowfall. Last year I skied 7 days in October, haha. But to be fair Mansfield set its record October snowfall last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 I think if any of us manages to get a few inches out of this we should feel very satisfied. Scoring any snow in October is a major bonus. The guys that hiked Mansfield said there was some snow laying around here and there and a lot of hoar frost earlier today. I was at 3200' on Spruce Peak and I'll guess a nippy 40F or so, but that was too low to have seen any snow. Trails are ultra mucky of course after this fall. GFS continues to be furthest north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 If I read the ECM results here in this forum and I start to see lots of gleeful posts from people in eastern Mass, etc., the first thing I think is that it might be "out to sea" for us. LOL Of course on occasion we both share in a good snowfall, depending on the trajectory of the storm track. I still experience it. Instead of looking at the euro, I read the posts here, then look at it after. Much more fun to experience the roller coaster ride here first. (plus I can't interpret it very well on my own) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 I think if any of us manages to get a few inches out of this we should feel very satisfied. Scoring any snow in October is a major bonus. The guys that hiked Mansfield said there was some snow laying around here and there and a lot of hoar frost earlier today. I was at 3200' on Spruce Peak and I'll guess a nippy 40F or so, but that was too low to have seen any snow. Trails are ultra mucky of course after this fall. Yeah I posted a picture in the NNE thread of a dusting/coating of snow up at the Co-Op snowstake. First accumulating snow of the season was Friday night/Saturday morning. Hiking on Saturday must've been damp with the upslope rain showers moving through all afternoon. Lastly, today was our first below normal day in a very long time. Also, it was the second straight day where the temp failed to get out of the 40s. High was 49F, low was 33F (at the ASOS) for a departure of -2F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 One good thing is that standard time begins 2 weeks from today. Not going to stay up late tonight but if things continue to look good may have to starting tomorrow. At least with standard time the models come out an hour earlier! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 0z nam is more potent with the LP out to 72 hours, and maybe a tad warmer on the 1000-500 thickness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Holy crap the NAM looks great at 84... Heights crashing/Precip building... Thats a pretty good consensus right now between GFS and NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 NAM would probably be a cold rain changing to snow if we could see another frame or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 The NAM is a nice overunning event from here and presumably into central NE beyond. It looks like something I'd expect in December and not late October. Someone get the clown snowfall maps. LOL 0z nam is more potent with the LP out to 72 hours, and maybe a tad warmer on the 1000-500 thickness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New England Storm Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Burbank's going for it: Mark it, 10-23-11 the first bit snow forecast. Hope some see some flakes out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Holy crap the NAM looks great at 84... Heights crashing/Precip building... Thats a pretty good consensus right now between GFS and NAM This would end up being a solid hit for Dendrites area... probably the elevations in the Monadnocks, too. Precip does not look heavy enough and system isn't dynamic enough for snow to fall with H85s just below freezing. I'd bet -3C at H85 would do it though. This time of year you definitely want at least 540dm thicknesses, probably even 534dm, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 NAM would probably be a cold rain changing to snow if we could see another frame or two. What would you look for in terms of thicknesses this time of year? I would imagine especially in October without a rapidly exploding storm that a marginal situation isn't going to cut it, no? But I would imagine 5,000ft temps of -3C in steady precip would be snow after some dynamic cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 This would end up being a solid hit for Dendrites area... probably the elevations in the Monadnocks, too. Precip does not look heavy enough and system isn't dynamic enough for snow to fall with H85s just below freezing. I'd bet -3C at H85 would do it though. This time of year you definitely want at least 540dm thicknesses, probably even 534dm, no? We do have crashing heights on our side though which is good.With these overunning events, there really isnt an area of heavy precip. Its pretty much a wide swath of moderate precip with occasionally heavy bursts or dry ruts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Six hours of non accumulating slop in places like ALB and Delmar maybe....while I get 6 inches of paste at 1K feet. If you went with the NAM...... This would end up being a solid hit for Dendrites area... probably the elevations in the Monadnocks, too. Precip does not look heavy enough and system isn't dynamic enough for snow to fall with H85s just below freezing. I'd bet -3C at H85 would do it though. This time of year you definitely want at least 540dm thicknesses, probably even 534dm, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Six hours of non accumulating slop in places like ALB and Delmar maybe....while I get 6 inches of paste at 1K feet. If you went with the NAM...... Yeah I have a hard time believing ALB/Delmar would get 6 hours of snow, lol. That looks really marginal below 1,000ft and even at 1,000ft I'm not sure you'd get down to freezing until 850mb temps really crash. The problem is the lack of dynamics to really juice up the precip rates. Its not like we have some bowling ball tracking through the area with explosive cyclongenesis occurring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 What would you look for in terms of thicknesses this time of year? I would imagine especially in October without a rapidly exploding storm that a marginal situation isn't going to cut it, no? But I would imagine 5,000ft temps of -3C in steady precip would be snow after some dynamic cooling. It depends on the precip rate of course, but usually with less dynamic precip, you want to see -3C or so...you can get away with warmer though if other conditions are favorable such as drier air in the low levels to help evaporationally cool the BL or some lower dewpoint advection from the NE. Oct 15-16, 2009 wasn't a dynamic system (the one on 10/18 was) and I recall 850s in the -3C to -5C range and having it be all snow from the get go at this elevation. The issue with this system is we will be advecting cold air the entire time, and the sfc may be slow to respond a bit with the antecedent milder airmass before the storm. So I think it would be a rain changing to snow scenario for many...obviously the mountains would be straight snow, but anyone below 1500 feet might have to rain for a bit and then flip....but we'll see. Its hard to get into details this far out because the setup can still change 4 days out...esp with this 5h setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 We do have crashing heights on our side though which is good.With these overunning events, there really isnt an area of heavy precip. Its pretty much a wide swath of moderate precip with occasionally heavy bursts or dry ruts. Definitely a good point. Hopefully we'll see models go back to a stronger low as it scoots off-shore. Any attempt at an organized CCB or comma head would really increase snow chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 It depends on the precip rate of course, but usually with less dynamic precip, you want to see -3C or so...you can get away with warmer though if other conditions are favorable such as drier air in the low levels to help evaporationally cool the BL or some lower dewpoint advection from the NE. Oct 15-16, 2009 wasn't a dynamic system (the one on 10/18 was) and I recall 850s in the -3C to -5C range and having it be all snow from the get go at this elevation. The issue with this system is we will be advecting cold air the entire time, and the sfc may be slow to respond a bit with the antecedent milder airmass before the storm. So I think it would be a rain changing to snow scenario for many...obviously the mountains would be straight snow, but anyone below 1500 feet might have to rain for a bit and then flip....but we'll see. Its hard to get into details this far out because the setup can still change 4 days out...esp with this 5h setup. Whats 5h? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 It depends on the precip rate of course, but usually with less dynamic precip, you want to see -3C or so...you can get away with warmer though if other conditions are favorable such as drier air in the low levels to help evaporationally cool the BL or some lower dewpoint advection from the NE. Oct 15-16, 2009 wasn't a dynamic system (the one on 10/18 was) and I recall 850s in the -3C to -5C range and having it be all snow from the get go at this elevation. The issue with this system is we will be advecting cold air the entire time, and the sfc may be slow to respond a bit with the antecedent milder airmass before the storm. So I think it would be a rain changing to snow scenario for many...obviously the mountains would be straight snow, but anyone below 1500 feet might have to rain for a bit and then flip....but we'll see. Its hard to get into details this far out because the setup can still change 4 days out...esp with this 5h setup. Of course... I was just trying to see what the "pros" stand-point would be. Mild BL air is always a problem this time of year below 1,000ft (or thereabouts). I could see -3C or so being the flipping point for areas 800-1000ft or higher. If I'm under 500ft I'd probably be looking for -5C or so at H85 due to the lag you mention from CAA aloft vs. surface. I forget what the exact temps aloft were last October during that big storm where Jim Cantore was in Stowe on-the-air at like 2,000ft and it was ripping almost dry powder in the upper 20s. I remember sitting here watching it dump on The Weather Channel (which happened to be just up the road) but with 8sm -SN/RN out my window. Down at my house at 800ft it was 34F with mangled slush. It took forever to get rid of the warm air in the last 1,000ft of the atmosphere and it was precipitating hard and steady. That storm was quite cold too at the summit level with very dry snow, blowing and drifting, etc and mid 20s. The 1"+ accumulation level ended up being right around 1,000ft... with 4-5" at 1,500ft and almost 10" at 2,000ft or something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Whats 5h? 5h = 500mb = H5 etc H85 = 850mb = 85h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 5h = 500mb = H5 etc H85 = 850mb = 85h ohh.. welp bedtime now i guess... stupid DST Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 IT'S OFFICIAL! ...people are back to extrapolating the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 IT'S OFFICIAL! ...people are back to extrapolating the NAM Verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 00z GFS is the same as just about the last 6 runs now. This model has not budged on the first wave since the 12z run Saturday morning. A lot of New England would at least see some flakes out of this solution... and a much better H5 vort max moving across New England. It really tries to get its act together as the low moves off-shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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