OKpowdah Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 GFS is VERY interesting. Despite notable differences in the southern vort, the evolution of the northern vort max is almost identical to the previous run, with very similar result at the surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 GFS continues to be furthest north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 GFS is VERY interesting. Despite notable differences in the southern vort, the evolution of the northern vort max is almost identical to the previous run, with very similar result at the surface Good interesting or bad interesting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Good interesting or bad interesting? I guess sort of good. To me that says that at least the solution is a bit more stable than it would appear based on the complexity of the situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 I guess sort of good. To me that says that at least the solution is a bit more stable than it would appear based on the complexity of the situation. Looks like the GFS is trying hard to form that second low at hr 138 Its left unphased at 144 but better than 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 I guess sort of good. To me that says that at least the solution is a bit more stable than it would appear based on the complexity of the situation. Going to need a few more days of runs to iron this one out one way or the other, The biggest thing i take from these model runs of late is the colder air mass that moves in here for early Nov Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Looks like the GFS is trying hard to form that second low at hr 138 To little to late as the low develops well east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 GFS continues to be furthest north. Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Yes For trying to "thread the needle" we seem to be in a great spot right now per the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 First day today with a high in the 40's. Well technically it was 50.. 49.7 was the high..MPM would claim that was a high in the 40's..I was out in New Milford all day..there the sun came out and it hit 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 First clipper day 8? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Watched Ch 9 (Manchester NH) at 6pm. I was surprised they didn't even mention any snow threat for northern zones for late week. Only that tomorrow nights cold front could end in a few flurries Tuesday AM in the mountains. On a side note I hate trying to compare the models runs on the new NCEP site. On the old site I could just set up tabs for model runs and compare side by side. Much harder now! Couple other musings.....seems to have been cloudy up here forever and temps in a very narrow range for days, 40F to 53F! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 First day today with a high in the 40's. Well technically it was 50.. 49.7 was the high..MPM would claim that was a high in the 40's..I was out in New Milford all day..there the sun came out and it hit 54 Looks like clouds kept the temps down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Watched Ch 9 (Manchester NH) at 6pm. I was surprised they didn't even mention any snow threat for northern zones for late week. Only that tomorrow nights cold front could end in a few flurries Tuesday AM in the mountains. On a side note I hate trying to compare the models runs on the new NCEP site. On the old site I could just set up tabs for model runs and compare side by side. Much harder now! Couple other musings.....seems to have been cloudy up here forever and temps in a very narrow range for days, 40F to 53F! Out of all of the news sites we get up here.... WMUR is the most conservative when it comes to snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 For trying to "thread the needle" we seem to be in a great spot right now per the models. Either model scenario bodes well for some of us here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 I would not mention snow right now. Just way too early for that..especially in October. We still don't know how the storm will evolve. I suppose it couldn't hurt to mention a small possibility of it as a tease or something, but nothing wrong with not mentioning it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Watched Ch 9 (Manchester NH) at 6pm. I was surprised they didn't even mention any snow threat for northern zones for late week. Only that tomorrow nights cold front could end in a few flurries Tuesday AM in the mountains. On a side note I hate trying to compare the models runs on the new NCEP site. On the old site I could just set up tabs for model runs and compare side by side. Much harder now! Couple other musings.....seems to have been cloudy up here forever and temps in a very narrow range for days, 40F to 53F! I like the PSU E-Wall for comparing. The four panel images are really good for synoptic comparisons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 I would not mention snow right now. Just way too early for that..especially in October. We still don't know how the storm will evolve. I suppose it couldn't hurt to mention a small possibility of it as a tease or something, but nothing wrong with not mentioning it. Right now, I would say "our next potential storm threat is for late next week with a chance of rain and possibly mixing with snow in higher elevations towards the end of the storm" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 I would not mention snow right now. Just way too early for that..especially in October. We still don't know how the storm will evolve. I suppose it couldn't hurt to mention a small possibility of it as a tease or something, but nothing wrong with not mentioning it. CAR and GYX mention it but at low cofidence for that time period.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 CAR and GYX mention it but at low cofidence for that time period.. Yeah BOX did too. AFDs are fine, but knowing the public...I could see why a TV met might not want to mention it. I might tease though....lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Yeah BOX did to. AFDs are fine, but knowing the public...I could see why a TV met might not want to mention it. I might tease though....lol. Toss one of these out there.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnno Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Just got the wet snowflake mention from the TV rip and read met here for thursday night.... ill be happy just to see a few snowflakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Toss one of these out there.... That would be on the Thursday panel of the 5 day. No sun, no clouds, just that emoticon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 I would not mention snow right now. Just way too early for that..especially in October. We still don't know how the storm will evolve. I suppose it couldn't hurt to mention a small possibility of it as a tease or something, but nothing wrong with not mentioning it. I think now is when you start hyping it and talking about.. Can always backpeddle if you have to..but that doesn't seem likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 That would be on the Thursday panel of the 5 day. No sun, no clouds, just that emoticon. That would be funny, At this point there is no reason to get the public worked up this far out for this early in the season, But it does make model watching a little more interesting, Just wish we were on EST, Staying up for these runs are brutal right now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Well the GFS ensembles are still pretty far north taking the low across SNE. Pretty big difference in models for 4 days out. Might see some sort of a compromise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 That has to be the all time biggest weenie model besides the JMA..... I followed that tool last year and found it to be pointless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 ensembles still pretty north, not much change from 12 or 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 I followed that tool last year and found it to be pointless Do you have any thoughts tip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Locked on Twitter TollandKev Kevin Our most reliable wx model gives us 2-4 inches of snow on Friday..LALALALA Lock It Up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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