Dr. Jeff Master's discussion on sea ice and cold winters

[BeauDodson]

Snip

How will Arctic sea ice loss affect the winter?

NOAA's annual Arctic Report Card discussed the fact that recent record sea ice loss in the summer in the Arctic is having major impacts on winter weather over the continents of the Northern Hemisphere. The Report Card states, "There continues to be significant excess heat storage in the Arctic Ocean at the end of summer due to continued near-record sea ice loss. There is evidence that the effect of higher air temperatures in the lower Arctic atmosphere in fall is contributing to changes in the atmospheric circulation in both the Arctic and northern mid-latitudes. Winter 2009 - 2010 showed a new connectivity between mid-latitude extreme cold and snowy weather events and changes in the wind patterns of the Arctic; the so-called Warm Arctic-Cold Continents pattern...With future loss of sea ice, such conditions as winter 2009 - 2010 could happen more often. Thus we have a potential climate change paradox. Rather than a general warming everywhere, the loss of sea ice and a warmer Arctic can increase the impact of the Arctic on lower latitudes, bringing colder weather to southern locations." As a specific example of what the Report Card is talking about, Francis et al. (2009) found that during 1979 - 2006, years that had unusually low summertime Arctic sea ice had a 10 - 20% reduction in the temperature difference between the Equator and North Pole. This resulted in a weaker jet stream with slower winds that lasted a full six months, through fall and winter. The weaker jet caused a weaker Aleutian Low and Icelandic Low during the winter, resulting in a more negative Arctic Oscillation (AO), allowing cold air to spill out of the Arctic and into Europe and the Eastern U.S. Thus, Arctic sea ice loss may have been partially responsible for the record negative AO observed during the winter of 2009 - 2010, and strongly negative AO last winter. If the Arctic Report Card is right, we'll be seeing more of this pattern during coming winters--possibly even during the winter of 2011 - 2012, since Arctic sea ice loss this year was virtually tied with

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http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/article.html?entrynum=1965

[The_Global_Warmer]

This makes quite a bit of sense... We have seen an even more distinct ice pattern which distributes heat in the same locations the last four years.

The Chuchki, laptev, Kara, Barents and parts of the CA, ESB, and beufort stored heat.

The CA is now ice free and earlier so more heat gets stored. There has been an abundance of heat This year in the Kara and laptev.

This is believed to help the DPA because the cold inversion will create stable air whole the heat release will cause mixing. The problem is the DPA just happens to flush out the MY ice helping the arctic release more heat perpetuating the cycle. We will see going forward how real this is.

[The_Global_Warmer]

The models first showed the DPA around the 3rd or so. Developing about the 8-10th and it did. they had it lasting 4 days. Then 7 then the euro 10.

Now the gfs breaks it down by the 25th with the euro keeping amoretti centrally based 1030HP over the western arctic through the end of the month. With an Slp off the east then NE coast of Greenland for most of the rest of the month.

Pretty crazy. And 2011 had some areas see warm water pretty deep above crazy deep for the arctic.

Satellite measurements say about 10,000,000km2 is below -1c current extent is 6,500,000km2 with area 4,7,000,000km2. There must be a lot of heat still trapped in there. It's showing signs of breaking down. But what happens when those places that accumulated that heat are ice free during June July and august and not just parts of late July and august.

Gonna cause some wild weather

[Mencken_Fan]

While Eastern U.S. (and European) winters have been crazy with cold and snow lately, they don't compare (temperature-wise) to some of the bitterly cold winters of decades past.

Speaking only empirically (from having personally experienced 60 winters on the East Coast), the most unusual winters occurred during the 1970s. During that decade we swung back and forth between amazingly warm and amazingly cold winters. One winter we had zero measurable snow in D.C. Another the Potomac was so frozen, one could drive from D.C. to Virginia without using a bridge (not kidding.)

During the super-cold winter in the late '70s, temps ran 10F below normal all three winter months. Ice on the Chesapeake Bay built to 3' thick which required ice-breakers to keep the shipping lanes open. The Atlantic turned to slush on the coast of Delaware.

Our recent winters may be "cold and snowy" but they're not "super-winters" when it comes to temperatures. What I'll be interested in seeing is just how cold our future winters are; not just how snowy.

[The_Global_Warmer]

While Eastern U.S. (and European) winters have been crazy with cold and snow lately, they don't compare (temperature-wise) to some of the bitterly cold winters of decades past.

Speaking only empirically (from having personally experienced 60 winters on the East Coast), the most unusual winters occurred during the 1970s. During that decade we swung back and forth between amazingly warm and amazingly cold winters. One winter we had zero measurable snow in D.C. Another the Potomac was so frozen, one could drive from D.C. to Virginia without using a bridge (not kidding.)

During the super-cold winter in the late '70s, temps ran 10F below normal all three winter months. Ice on the Chesapeake Bay built to 3' thick which required ice-breakers to keep the shipping lanes open. The Atlantic turned to slush on the coast of Delaware.

Our recent winters may be "cold and snowy" but they're not "super-winters" when it comes to temperatures. What I'll be interested in seeing is just how cold our future winters are; not just how snowy.

this is the main things that keeps getting left out.

last winter here in STL was trumpeted as a big time cold and snowy winter.

when it was snowy and cold.

but no where near as cold as the old days not just 70s but any time pre 1990 on record. And days with snow on ground are much less.

[skierinvermont]

I posted a paper back at eastern on this. From what I remember, the results weren't completely conclusive and I was a little skeptical. It might have been the Francis 2009 paper they mention.

[gracetoyou]

Thanks OP for posting that. That's absolutely fascinating & makes since. This winter ought to be a testing of the theory with the large melt this summer.

[Matt Rogers]

I guess my skepticism of this theory ties back to the fact that this is happening in the Southern Hemisphere too. We had a record low AAO last summer with severe cold in Argentina. A number of stratospheric warmings were noted there too. This comes despite a lack of a downward ice trend there:

[The_Global_Warmer]

I guess my skepticism of this theory ties back to the fact that this is happening in the Southern Hemisphere too. We had a record low AAO last summer with severe cold in Argentina. A number of stratospheric warmings were noted there too. This comes despite a lack of a downward ice trend there:

maybe it'a not just an ice thing but more from the heat rm a lack of ice. Maybe in the S.H. it has warmed enough already to make a difference.

I have no idea if this is legit or not But as NY City sees some snow the arctic is having this:

The Canadian Side is normal or slightly below today.

about -20 to -25C is normal right now in the arctic.

also:

http://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/

the amount of OLR in the arctic has increased substantially in October which can only mean the amount of Short wave being trapped in the summer is a lot and it takes a while to get it there.

The ice has formed over areas still emitting quite a bit of OLR. I wonder what the impact this has on our weather if any.

[skierinvermont]

This is the Francis 2009 paper referenced in the OP and which was posted on eastern a couple years ago.

http://www.colorado.edu/geography/class_homepages/geog_4271_f10/readings/week_12_13_francis_et_al_2009GL037274.pdf

[bobbutts]

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

The paper seems to state that the Summers with large ice losses would have slower Fall recoveries due to the heat stored in the atmosphere. That does not seem to be the case this year. The paper also states that there would likely be a rebound in the ice due to the -NAO. We have been in a -NAO trend for some time and the lack of a rebound in sea ice has proven this to be wrong as well.

While there is likely a connection, it would appear that we have much more to learn on this.

[skierinvermont]

The paper seems to state that the Summers with large ice losses would have slower Fall recoveries due to the heat stored in the atmosphere. That does not seem to be the case this year. The paper also states that there would likely be a rebound in the ice due to the -NAO. We have been in a -NAO trend for some time and the lack of a rebound in sea ice has proven this to be wrong as well.

While there is likely a connection, it would appear that we have much more to learn on this.

If you are referring to the Francis 2009 paper I just posted it doesn't say either of those things.

It states that summers with large ice losses will have less ice in the fall and much more heat released from the ocean. This is true this year, as well as 2007, 2008, 2010 and to a lesser extent, 2005 and 2009. In fact, the faster the ice increases, the faster heat is being released.

It doesn't say there WILL be a rebound due to the -NAO, it says that the -NAO will act as a negative feedback and reduce the ice lost compared to if we did not have the -NAO. If the past several winters had been +NAO, there is a good chance that the ice would be even thinner. This is because it is a known fact that +NAO winters on average transport more ice out of the arctic via the Fram Strait.