hypatia Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 The core is getting to bow-chicka-wow-wow status, at least It appears that the closed eyewall that was present last night is now in the process of reconsolidating after becoming more diffuse.... the eyewall is open to the S/SE, but appears to be smaller in diameter, more symmetrical and intense. If it can close off completely..... things could really take off... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 It appears that the closed eyewall that was present last night dissipated and is now in the process of reforming.... the new eyewall is open to the S/SE, but appears to be smaller in diameter, more symmetrical and intense. If it can close off completely..... things could really take off... I disagree extensively. The eyewall did not dissipate... rather, it is now becoming better organized/more consolidated whereas before it appeared more diffuse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I disagree extensively. The eyewall did not dissipate... rather, it is now becoming better organized/more consolidated whereas before it appeared more diffuse. Looking VERY good in initial visible images. Small eye apparent around 17.2N, 82.9W, with very cold tops on the western side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Rina is up to 90 knots as of the 11AM advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I don't know if it is shear or dry air, but I don't like the apparent erosion of deep convection in the SW quadrant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 From the 11AM full package: THE BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST IS A FASTER FORWARD SPEED THROUGH 48 HOURS...WITH THE NHC TRACK LYING A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...BUT TO THE LEFT OF THE GFS. AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE. AT THE END OF THE PERIOD THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND A LITTLE NORTH OF THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS IN THE EXTENDED RANGE...THE CONFIDENCE IN THE LATTER PART OF THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS LOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I don't know if it is shear or dry air, but I don't like the apparent erosion of deep convection in the SW quadrant. I think you are imagining things. Loop the WV image.. the convection in the SW quadrant is just fine at the 1415Z image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meteorjosh Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Beautiful pinhole eye; RIC is occurring now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 With the warming cloud tops away from the center and what appears to be a very small eye emerging at the center, it looks like Rina may be one of those unusual storms that become smaller with time, or at least temporarily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 With the warming cloud tops away from the center and what appears to be a very small eye emerging at the center, it looks like Rina may be one of those unusual storms that become smaller with time, or at least temporarily. The dry air in the environment may be helping to constrain the size of Rina as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 The dry air in the environment may be helping to constrain the size of Rina as well. Yeah, most likely. It looks like in the most recent visible frame you can see and arc cloud in the NE quad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hypatia Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I disagree extensively. The eyewall did not dissipate... rather, it is now becoming better organized/more consolidated whereas before it appeared more diffuse. Ah, ok, my bad... dissipated wasn't the right word. Anyways the structure does appear to be improving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calamity Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Definitely on its way to becoming a major. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Definitely on its way to becoming a major. Fantastic close up loop! Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 12Z suggests a mighty close call with Cancun/Cozumel and then turning ENE toward S FL and the Keys... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thegreatdr Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 An intensifying hurricane tends to get smaller/slightly more compact with time. It's covered in Merrill (1984), using ROCI (radius of outermost closed isobar) as the size metric. With the warming cloud tops away from the center and what appears to be a very small eye emerging at the center, it looks like Rina may be one of those unusual storms that become smaller with time, or at least temporarily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meteorjosh Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Well, despite the fact that our posts are deleted from this website, you have seen our forecasts from yesterday for Rina as well as those from mid August for Irene. If you were alive in 1991 and living in S FL you would also have heard our broadcasts from Homestead, but none of this qualifies us to post on this website apparently. Good day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Well, despite the fact that our posts are deleted from this website, you have seen our forecasts from yesterday for Rina as well as those from mid August for Irene. If you were alive in 1991 and living in S FL you would also have heard our broadcasts from Homestead, but none of this qualifies us to post on this website apparently. Good day. Andrew was in 1992..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Well, despite the fact that our posts are deleted from this website, you have seen our forecasts from yesterday for Rina as well as those from mid August for Irene. If you were alive in 1991 and living in S FL you would also have heard our broadcasts from Homestead, but none of this qualifies us to post on this website apparently. Good day. Your posts about IMBY weather add little value to this thread. You are welcome to post your forecasts with reasoning, but your editorial comments are unnecessary and unwanted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Very good, Bendy, I hope you do not ever turn to NHC for work. This is strike #2. Strike #3 will result in posting restrictions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 25, 2011 Author Share Posted October 25, 2011 The threat (other than the idiotic career ending one) will probably be further S in the Yucatan, probably even S of CZ. Models were barely moving Rina yesterday for the first 24 hours, and she is moving a little faster now... implying a stronger ridge, which was a bit expected thanks to the W coast trough being slower to swing east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 The threat (other than the idiotic career ending one) will probably be further S in the Yucatan, probably even S of CZ. Models were barely moving Rina yesterday for the first 24 hours, and she is moving a little faster now... implying a stronger ridge, which was a bit expected thanks to the W coast trough being slower to swing east. Agreed, Jorge... I still think the GFS is off in its own world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thegreatdr Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 What does the 12z GFS look like in 3-4 days, out of curiosity? Between this cryptic post to the blog, and a text message I just received, is the 12z GFS taking this storm into SW FL this weekend? Yesterday, 1/4 of the 00z global ensemble members (mostly European) showed this type of solution. Agreed, Jorge... I still think the GFS is off in its own world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 What does the 12z GFS look like in 3-4 days, out of curiosity? Between this cryptic post to the blog, and a text message I just received, is the 12z GFS taking this storm into SW FL this weekend? Yesterday, 1/4 of the 00z global ensemble members (mostly European) showed this type of solution. Yeah, brushes the Yucatan then makes a beeline for Ft Myers (sorry, didn't mean to be cryptic) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 The dry air in the environment may be helping to constrain the size of Rina as well. I understand that dry air limits the size of the circulation, but is this mainly due to the fact that the outer bands can't organize to effectively increase the size of the circulation, because of dry air on the outer reaches of the circulation? I've always tried to fit a conceptual model to how dry air affects circulations, and it seems like while the inner core is unaffected in a low shear environment, the outer bands have difficulty maintaining organization because the shear on the outer reaches of the storm (due to anticyclonic motion aloft and cyclonic motion near the surface) are effective at advecting dry air into the bands won't allow for more axisymmetric structures such as outer eyewalls to develop. Thus the storm stays small since the small inner core doesn't have to compete with the energy of an outer core. Let me know if this makes any sense... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 New HWRF has Rina moving NNW just to the west of Cozumel as a borderline category 2/3, and then turns it ENE across the Keys and extreme S FL as a weakening category 1/strong TS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I understand that dry air limits the size of the circulation, but is this mainly due to the fact that the outer bands can't organize to effectively increase the size of the circulation, because of dry air on the outer reaches of the circulation? I've always tried to fit a conceptual model to how dry air affects circulations, and it seems like while the inner core is unaffected in a low shear environment, the outer bands have difficulty maintaining organization because the shear on the outer reaches of the storm (due to anticyclonic motion aloft and cyclonic motion near the surface) are effective at advecting dry air into the bands won't allow for more axisymmetric structures such as outer eyewalls to develop. Thus the storm stays small since the small inner core doesn't have to compete with the energy of an outer core. Let me know if this makes any sense... From what I understand, the dry air prevents convection from forming in the outer bands, due to entrainment choking off the updrafts. If there was convection at outer radii, there would be PV generation which would expand the area of cyclonic PV, leading to a broader wind field and TC size. Hill and Lackmann (2009) discusses this in a lot further detail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 GFDL takes Rina 75 miles into the Yucatan, then turns it and keeps it south of FL... My track is looking pretty "outlier-ish" to say the least....but I shall not be decieved by the models! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Euro dissipates over the Yucatan by hour 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Recon getting into the meat of it now. Nothing higher that 75 kt yet. Discounting a rainflagged 115 kt with 90 kt flight level winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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