HurricaneJosh Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Wow-- nice. Really dying to see the 11 pm EDT forecast track-- whether it trends noticeably either way. And here's the latest IR. I like the core, but I'm not crazy about the outflow pattern: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radius Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 no shot at EC plus late in the season. Thus ... this is almost like an EPAC fish thread. Agreed, sorry to say...at least we had a bit of fun with Irene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hypatia Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Wow-- nice. Really dying to see the 11 pm EDT forecast track-- whether it trends noticeably either way. And here's the latest IR. I like the core, but I'm not crazy about the outflow pattern: True, although I think the outflow has improved a tad to the south in the last couple of frames... plus there seems to be persistent deep convection over the center... http://www.ssd.noaa....1/loop-avn.html keeping my fingers crossed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 True, although I think the outflow has improved a tad to the south in the last couple of frames... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html Good point. And compared to the ultra-crappy outflow in the S and E portions yesterday, this current scheme is an amazing improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hypatia Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Good point. And compared to the ultra-crappy outflow in the S and E portions yesterday, this current scheme is an amazing improvement. Definitely! Really quite the turnaround... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 The new advisory has it at 70 kt. They peak it at 100 kt before landfall on the Yucatan. Interestin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Sorry guys....9 yr. old son having "falling asleep issues".....yes, I moved my track a bit west after looking a bit more carefully at the building ridge any any potential weakness Rina could exploit if she gets "really big" over the next day....I don't see much, however, I do think Rina will crawl WNW/NW for the next day or so as the ridge to the north is by no means progged to be a powerhouse with respect to an expected intense Rina. Ultimately, my thought process is similar to the NHC's, except for the early period forward speed, which then leads to a track that curves further east. The next 12hrs. could provide some rare glimpses into our often sought after explosive deepening. As Josh mentioned, however, UL out away from Rina is a bit "non-textbook". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 The new advisory has it at 70 kt. They peak it at 100 kt before landfall on the Yucatan. Interestin'. Josh...didn't I tell you months ago? HURRICANE RINA in October...you just knew it had to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 The core is getting to bow-chicka-wow-wow status, at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Agreed, sorry to say...at least we had a bit of fun with Irene. Meh Irene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaysin Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 97l is an orange Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 97l is an orange We usually keep other threats in the general Atlantic Tropical Activity thread. Just a heads up, this thread will be heavily moderated since Rina's a big deal right now. Otherwise, welcome to the board! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 The core is getting to bow-chicka-wow-wow status, at least I don't know what that means but at least you didn't call it hawt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Also 980mb is about where all hell started breaking loose with Wilma. The storm is reaching windspeeds now that can take optimal advantage of the oceanic heat content. It may freefall to it's maximum potential intensity depending on how well the inner core forms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Does anybody know when the next time Recon will be in to check out Rina? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 25, 2011 Author Share Posted October 25, 2011 Looks like there might be a warm spot developing on IR. If so, an eye will probably pop out soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Recon with it's first pass through Rina (NW-SE)... 977mb pressure and a peak FL wind of 89kts in the NW quad. VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182011 A. 25/06:02:40Z B. 17 deg 16 min N 083 deg 29 min W C. 700 mb 2910 m D. 89 kt E. 283 deg 7 nm F. 025 deg 79 kt G. 291 deg 10 nm H. 977 mb I. 7 C / 3056 m J. 17 C / 3038 m K. NA / NA L. OPEN SE M. C20 N. 12345 / 7 O. 0.02 / 1 nm P. AF304 0318A RINA OB 07 MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 84 KT SE QUAD 06:06:30Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zachary Lassiter Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Recon with it's first pass through Rina (NW-SE)... 977mb pressure and a peak FL wind of 89kts in the NW quad. VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182011 A. 25/06:02:40Z B. 17 deg 16 min N 083 deg 29 min W C. 700 mb 2910 m D. 89 kt E. 283 deg 7 nm F. 025 deg 79 kt G. 291 deg 10 nm H. 977 mb I. 7 C / 3056 m J. 17 C / 3038 m K. NA / NA L. OPEN SE M. C20 N. 12345 / 7 O. 0.02 / 1 nm P. AF304 0318A RINA OB 07 MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 84 KT SE QUAD 06:06:30Z Holy Cat2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 The 5 am EDT advisory sets the intensity at 975 mb/85 kt. They still bring it into the Yucatan with winds between 80 and 100 kt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Its been a while since I updated the blog, so I thought maybe it would as good of a time as any considering this might be our last significant system of the year. http://philstropicalweatherblog.wordpress.com/2011/10/25/hurricane-rina-in-the-northwestern-caribbean-invest-97l-in-the-central-caribbean/ Here is my first and probably only forecast for Rina... formidable storm, but will likely meet a fate similar to Paula did last year towards the end of the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 That 7C and 17C difference on the recon is a healthy system right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I'm left of the NHC track. Brought Rina in near the BZ/MX border as a Cat 1 Thursday afternoon. Models are trending slower with the trough moving through the Rockies, which ought to allow Rina to make more westward progress. I dissipated it over the Yucatan on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I'm left of the NHC track. Brought Rina in near the BZ/MX border as a Cat 1 Thursday afternoon. Models are trending slower with the trough moving through the Rockies, which ought to allow Rina to make more westward progress. I dissipated it over the Yucatan on Friday. Yep. The trough is slowing down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 As long as one model, no matter how unreliable this season, bring an almost major to Florida, despite all odds, glass 1/128th full for US excitement. Double word score, just South then just inland of Canacun/Cozumel area and Florida is the GFDL were right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Rina definttely looks good on the water vapor with expanding feathery features in all quadrants. Is there a name for those features? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
apm Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Cirrus clouds. Rina definttely looks good on the water vapor with expanding feathery features in all quadrants. Is there a name for those features? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
U_Thant Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Rina definttely looks good on the water vapor with expanding feathery features in all quadrants. Is there a name for those features? The formation is referred to as transverse banding. You often see it in a more linear fashion associated with turbulent flow in the vicinity of jet maxima. I suppose you could call these 'circular transverse bands' Example paper: http://www.nwas.org/committees/rs/2008_MetSat_Papers/Lenz.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 The formation is referred to as transverse banding. You often see it in a more linear fashion associated with turbulent flow in the vicinity of jet maxima. I suppose you could call these 'circular transverse bands' Example paper: http://www.nwas.org/...Papers/Lenz.pdf Thanks - I often see them on hurricanes that are in a low shear environment and usually means strengthening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Rina definttely looks good on the water vapor with expanding feathery features in all quadrants. Is there a name for those features? The rippled appearance is referred to as transverse banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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