toad strangler Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 I take it a lot are expecting the 5PM update to shift significantly east with a sharp re curve. LEK's preliminary track is very interesting as it would leave even sfl completely dry? Edit - 5 PM track still hugging the Yucatan but a really sharp re curve thereafter. Death by Cuba, shear, and dry air? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 5PM advisory from NHC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 74 KT FL S QUAD, 986.1 extrap from plane on latest pass. Still strengthening after a short pause The diurnal maximum tonight will be fascinating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 557 URNT12 KNHC 242104 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182011 A. 24/20:42:20Z B. 17 deg 09 min N 083 deg 03 min W C. 850 mb 1310 m D. 60 kt E. 162 deg 10 nm F. 272 deg 74 kt G. 162 deg 10 nm H. 987 mb I. 17 C / 1523 m J. 22 C / 1525 m K. 14 C / NA L. NA M. NA N. 12345 / 8 O. 0.02 / 2 nm P. AF306 0218A RINA OB 19 MAX FL WIND 74 KT S QUAD 20:39:00Z Strong banding around center from 300 to 020 degrees ; Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calamity Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Nice banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Nice banding. It's in all quadrents now. Diarnal max will rock especially if it works out the dry air. Small late October storms over the NW caribbien can really bomb fast. Mitch and Wilma were amazing. Even a 50MB pressure fall in 24hrs would rock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 24, 2011 Author Share Posted October 24, 2011 Low res MW imagery shows a closed or almost closed eyewall (not sure if it's open or not to the SE). Core is quite small, and I expect a Cat 2 soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 24, 2011 Author Share Posted October 24, 2011 WRT track, it will be a close call for Cozumel and N Yucatan... if any, the Euro trended west, while the GFS has remained over or just east of CZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 WRT track, it will be a close call for Cozumel and N Yucatan... if any, the Euro trended west, while the GFS has remained over or just east of CZ. Euro weakens the storm...doesn't it? Would make sense seeing as the steering currents look to be quite varied, depending on the height/strength of Rina in a day or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Euro weakens the storm...doesn't it? Would make sense seeing as the steering currents look to be quite varied, depending on the height/strength of Rina in a day or so. I see you think this is going to miss the Yucatan by a wide and comfortable margin. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 24, 2011 Author Share Posted October 24, 2011 Euro weakens the storm...doesn't it? Would make sense seeing as the steering currents look to be quite varied, depending on the height/strength of Rina in a day or so. Yes, it has weakened the storm in most (all?) of its runs. It still trended west. The trough already bypassed the storm, and there won't be any trough in at least 4 days, weak/narrow ridging will be present until Thu/Fri, at mid and upper levels. Storm is smallish, and won't punch a hole into the ridge to it's north. Depth of the storm won't make a difference on steering currents until Fri, methinks. If by then it's still a good way east, then yes, I agree she will miss the Yucatan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Not entirely surprised by the RI this morning... shear had obviously decreased last night with convection pulsing near the center and the big diurnal max last night allowed for the convection wrap into the center and begin the intensification process in earnest. Again thus far the track and intensity are falling much in line with Paula last year. I won't go much further than that because I'm working on a blog update for later tonight, but it should be interesting to see how strong the storm can get since the ECWMF continues to suggest favorable shear through 60 hours over the system, which is far longer than the GFS and likely to be more correct given the current diabetic heating occurring over the Caribbean that is helping to promote anticyclonic motion in the upper levels over Rina against the stronger flow associated with a jet streak over the Gulf of Mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 24, 2011 Author Share Posted October 24, 2011 18Z gfs is a bit west. Cozumel and Cancun are both hit. Ridging is a wee bit stronger, thus allowing for a further west track... then it loops and hits Chetumal. Rina likes (dislikes?) QRoo in this GFS run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suwx Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Nice banding. Rina is looking Awesome!! In several frames appears to be trying to form an eye! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 24, 2011 Author Share Posted October 24, 2011 Rina is looking Awesome!! In several frames appears to be trying to form an eye! It probably hasn't because of hot towers tops canopy over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 6:53pm EST microwave pass shows the developing eyewall quite well, still open on the East side though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 ADT has been about 5mb too high and 10 kts too low for this storm. The trend however is usually a good indicator of weather it's stregnthening or weakening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 ADT has been about 5mb too high and 10 kts too low for this storm. The trend however is usually a good indicator of weather it's stregnthening or weakening. Completely irrelevant to this storm, but I'm glad that they reversed the graphic this year compared to when the line was going down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 That microwave shot is about 67% of the way to pure hawtness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 All I have to say is wow & Rina what a nice set of lungs you have at this moment . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I see you moved a bit west from your prelim but sticking to Rina being buried in Cuba and other nastiness that awaits? What do you think in regards to intensity approaching Cuba given your center misses the Y by a large margin? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I see you moved a bit west from your prelim but sticking to Rina being buried in Cuba and other nastiness that awaits? What do you think in regards to intensity approaching Cuba given your center misses the Y by a large margin? Thanks Looks like he's suggesting ~100 kt for Cuba. LEK is waaaaay right of the NHC and some of the major models-- it'll be a big score for him if he's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Looks like he's suggesting ~100 kt for Cuba. LEK is waaaaay right of the NHC and some of the major models-- it'll be a big score for him if he's right. I missed his intensity notes at first glance ..... I see them now. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I don't like that LEK is giving Rina to Cuba. He must be a Red Commie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sugaree Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 You wouldn't think the thread about soon-to-be-major Rina would be so dead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I don't like that LEK is giving Rina to Cuba. He must be a Red Commie. I also just noticed the "for entertainment only" disclaimer. I bet he has analytic reasoning behind his track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I don't like that LEK is giving Rina to Cuba. He must be a Red Commie. Would require a Josh journey to the Isle of Youth. I always wanted to go to Cuba..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 You wouldn't think the thread about soon-to-be-major Rina would be so dead. no shot at EC plus late in the season. Thus ... this is almost like an EPAC fish thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 9:37pm EST microwave Eyewall closed, here we go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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