Ed Lizard Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 I am not giving up on Florida yet. If it can get embedded in possible SW 500 mb flow and move ten to 15 knots, and be under about 30 knots 250 mb flow right over it but stronger flow to its North, the shear would be unfavorable but not outright hostile if it headed for extreme South Florida, and 60 knot 250 mb flow to its North would help it stay energzied. The likely solution, maybe not, but I am the AmWx board optimist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 I am not giving up on Florida yet. If it can get embedded in possible SW 500 mb flow and move ten to 15 knots, and be under about 30 knots 250 mb flow right over it but stronger flow to its North, the shear would be unfavorable but not outright hostile if it headed for extreme South Florida, and 60 knot 250 mb flow to its North would help it stay energzied. The likely solution, maybe not, but I am the AmWx board optimist. Per "57", a met at another BB and for whom Ed and I have an enormous amount of respect: "I still don't see much, if any, impact across Florida." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 That's the 0z position, my mistake...but it's still lopsided, it was pretty lopsided by the time I made the title, very close to what it's shown in that image... actually convection has been nearly stationary, while the LLC has creeped NNW AT 6z position was 16.5N 82.2W... still outside most of the convection (near the green edge of convection)... and the title was edited around 2z... so it was definitely very lopsided. Edit: Changed the image in my previous post to reflect the 6z position. It definitely was 2 face This is silly. No one is arguing that the center was perfectly embedded in the deep convection at that time-- we all know it wasn't-- it's whether calamity and I were "fooled" by it and whether we had the right to feel that it looked better than what was implied by the freak-show thread title. It's pretty subjective, so... Back on topic, it's looking much better this morning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 24, 2011 Author Share Posted October 24, 2011 This is silly. No one is arguing that the cyclone wasn't asymmetric at the time-- we all know it was-- it's whether calamity and I were "fooled" by it and whether we had the right to feel that it looked better than what was implied by the freak-show thread title. It's pretty subjective, so... Back on topic, it's looking much better this morning! Agreed it's silly, you didn't agree with the title, and I didn't see a reason why (hence the probably fooled comment), then I defended that there was a very good half and a very bad one, which the image showed... I wasn't implying it was a piece of junk, actually it was a decent imagery, given the trends, but it needed work. That is my reasoning for two faced, not that it was overall bad. As for the S FL threat, I agree this will probably won't be an event there. The Euro shows the recurve scenario, but as a disheveled, gutted out storm, and the GFS has the missing trough scenario. There's still time for models to change their mind, as it will be moving very slowly this next 3-4 days, but overall, the stronger than modelled at the time, SE ridge scenario I outlined a couple days back is looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 67kt at flight level (850mb) thus far from recon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 It's looking kind of awesome, actually. Even in the IR imagery, it's easy to see the center of the swirl. Noice: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Recon hasn't reached the center yet and they have already found peak flight level winds of 77 knots and 64 knots peak SMFR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 These recon readings almost don't surprise me, because it looks weirdly awesome all of a sudden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Looking at the latest visible, I can almost see a faint eye-like feature forming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 991.6mb extrap, 68kt max flight winds, tight core with a 8 minute flight time from inbound max->center->outbound max Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Looking at the latest visible, I can almost see a faint eye-like feature forming. Not there yet, but looking much improved... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 24, 2011 Author Share Posted October 24, 2011 It's at least a 60kt TS. It's pulling a good one today. If it develops an equatorward outflow channel, watch out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 A. 24/17:40:40Z B. 17 deg 07 min N 083 deg 03 min W C. 850 mb 1346 m D. 65 kt E. 319 deg 11 nm F. 052 deg 68 kt G. 320 deg 10 nm H. 991 mb I. 14 C / 1460 m J. 19 C / 1521 m K. 16 C / NA L. NA M. NA N. 12345 / 8 O. 0.02 / 2 nm P. AF306 0218A RINA OB 08 MAX FL WIND 68 KT NW QUAD 17:37:30Z MAX FL TEMP 21 C 360 / 15 NM FROM FL CNTR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyes2theskies Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Theoretically speaking as this storm continues to deepen shouldn't it feel more weakness in the atmosphere and move more poleward? If thats the case I am thinking this might get a little further north than what the models are saying. Of course there is the great wall of sheer to deal with. This is going to be a very interesting week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Hello Hurricane Rina TROPICAL STORM RINA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011 205 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2011 REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT RINA HAS STRENGTHENED. A SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY TO UPGRADE RINA TO A HURRICANE AND TO UPDATE THE INTENSITY FORECAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Woo hoo! Noice! I tell ya... The NW Caribbean in October never fails. You get a cyclone going there at that time, and boom! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 What an awesome rapid intensification phase. Josh: How happy is Rina making you right now? October saviorette? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 What an awesome rapid intensification phase. Josh: How happy is Rina making you right now? October saviorette? Well, not too happy yet, because the track looks complicated. Now that it's much deeper than modeled, the track forecast will probably shift right, away from the Yucatan. Cuba is Communist and it's looking like this can't get to FL in one piece due the upper-air conditions in the Gulf, so.... grrrr. We need that ridge to build in more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Updated forecast shows a peak of 105kt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Woo hoo! Noice! I tell ya... The NW Caribbean in October never fails. You get a cyclone going there at that time, and boom! Seeing the pressure falls as RECON neared the center sort of made a dull season a bit more exciting. Now let's see what it can do in the next 2-3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Well, not too happy yet, because the track looks complicated. Now that it's much deeper than modeled, the track forecast will probably shift right, away from the Yucatan. Cuba is Communist and it's looking like this can't get to FL in one piece due the upper-air conditions in the Gulf, so.... grrrr. We need that ridge to build in more. Right now, this is so reminiscent of Mitch, it isn't even funny. I definitely don't think it will get as strong as Mitch, but Major Hurricane status is looking quite likely now while Rina crawls westward just north of Honduras. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Updated forecast shows a peak of 105kt And they have it passing right over Cozumel with winds of 90-100 kt. Hmmm. I think it's just an update of the previous track forecast, and I'll bet that track will shift right with the 5 pm EDT package. If not, hmmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyes2theskies Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 I am curious to see what the models do with this tonight with the new intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Well, not too happy yet, because the track looks complicated. Now that it's much deeper than modeled, the track forecast will probably shift right, away from the Yucatan. Cuba is Communist and it's looking like this can't get to FL in one piece due the upper-air conditions in the Gulf, so.... grrrr. We need that ridge to build in more. Are conditions really that bad in the GoM where it would rip Rina to pieces if it takes that right hook towards the east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Are conditions really that bad in the GoM where it would rip Rina to pieces if it takes that right hook towards the east? I'm not much of an upper-air-pattern analyst, but that's what the respected sources in this thread have been saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Another thought: It's interesting this is occurring during a diurnal minimum... which is quite evident due to the increases in the cloud top temperature on infrared overall. From memory, I don't think it is quite often that such rapid intensification has occurred with such a consistent increase in the cloud top temperature of the convection associated with the cyclone... (and no, I'm not referring to the eye that is becoming evident... but the CDO itself). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Another thought: It's interesting this is occurring during a diurnal minimum... which is quite evident due to the increases in the cloud top temperature on infrared overall. From memory, I don't think it is quite often that such rapid intensification has occurred with such a consistent increase in the cloud top temperature of the convection associated with the cyclone... (and no, I'm not referring to the eye that is becoming evident... but the CDO itself). Well, given the massive tower that has gone up in the last hour on the SW side of the center, the warming will end up having not lasted very long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 0300 PM EDT MON 24 OCTOBER 2011 SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z OCTOBER 2011 TCPOD NUMBER.....11-146 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS --REMARK ADDED 1. TROPICAL STORM RINA FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 42 A. 25/1800Z A. 26/0000Z B. AFXXX 0418A RINA B. NOAA2 0518A RINA C. 25/1500Z C. 25/2000Z D. 17.7N 84.3W D. 17.8N 84.8W E. 25/1730Z TO 25/2100Z E. 25/2230Z TO 26/0200Z F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 71 FLIGHT FOUR -- NOAA 42 A. 26/0600Z A. 26/1200Z B. AFXXX 0618A RINA B. NOAA2 0718A RINA C. 26/0300Z C. 26/0800Z D. 17.9N 85.2W D. 18.1N 85.7W E. 26/0530Z TO 26/0900Z E. 26/1030Z TO 26/1400Z F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES AND A P-3 FLIGHT EVERY 12 HRS. 3. ADDED: REMARK GIV WILL FLY A RESEARCH MISSION AROUND RINA DEDARTING 25/1730Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Another thought: It's interesting this is occurring during a diurnal minimum... which is quite evident due to the increases in the cloud top temperature on infrared overall. From memory, I don't think it is quite often that such rapid intensification has occurred with such a consistent increase in the cloud top temperature of the convection associated with the cyclone... (and no, I'm not referring to the eye that is becoming evident... but the CDO itself). This reminds me of some recent work that Jason Dunion has done looking at the diurnal pulsing of TCs. He's found that in many storms, there tends to be a maximum of cloud top temperatures in the inner core (and a minimum at outer radii) during the day, while during the overnight hours the signs are reversed. There may be some connection to short-term intensity trends as well. In Rina's case, the timing of the warmer inner-core cloud tops is consistent with Dunion's findings, but like you said the intensification has continued. It is possible that much of the intensification occurred prior to the warming of the inner core tops, but without recon data one can only speculate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 This reminds me of some recent work that Jason Dunion... Oh, hey. So what are your latest thoughts on track? Do you think it'll hit the Yucatan, or will the models/forecasts trend right with the deeper system? Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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