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Remnant Low Rina.

wxmx

By wxmx,
in Weather Forecasting and Discussion

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RobbTC

RobbTC

Posted
Posted

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011

500 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2011

THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE LOW PRESSURE AREA

OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS FOUND A WELL-DEFINED CENTER AND

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DISTURBANCE HAS ACQUIRED JUST

ENOUGH CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION FOR THE SYSTEM TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A

TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT 30 KT...

BASED ON A FEW BELIEVABLE 27 TO 28 KT SFMR WIND MEASUREMENTS. THE

DEPRESSION IS OVER WARM WATER BUT IN AN AREA OF MODERATE

SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR WITH DRY AIR TO THE NORTH AND WEST.

THE ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IS NOT FORECAST TO

BE CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING...BUT SHOULD NOT BE

HOSTILE ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE SYSTEM FROM BECOMING A TROPICAL

STORM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE

STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 335/5. THE

CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO TURN WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO

TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST INCREASES GREATLY IN THE 3

TO 5 DAY TIME FRAME. THE GFS AND NOGAPS MODELS MOVE THE SYSTEM

INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA IN A FEW DAYS. CONVERSELY...THE

HWRF...ECMWF...AND UKMET MODELS TAKE THE CYCLONE INTO THE

SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST

PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO AN EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE ABOVEMENTIONED

RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES...

AND IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL TRACK.

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wxmx

wxmx

Posted
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Posted

Thanks for the thread title/subtitle change.

I'm going over vs the official forecast, and farther to the north. It's still consolidating, but it's showing more signs of organization. If it can keep a decent organization past 24-36 hours, there will be a period of favorable conditions aloft.

Also, I'm going a bit farther north...near Cozumel around 96hrs.

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jdrenken

jdrenken

Posted
Posted
BEGIN NHC_ATCF invest_al182011.invest FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201110240031 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END EIGHTEEN, AL, L, , , , , 18, 2011, TS, O, 2011102112, 9999999999, , , , , , WARNING, 3, AL182011 AL, 18, 2011102012, , BEST, 0, 150N, 800W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, AL, 18, 2011102018, , BEST, 0, 145N, 800W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, AL, 18, 2011102100, , BEST, 0, 142N, 800W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, AL, 18, 2011102106, , BEST, 0, 140N, 800W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, AL, 18, 2011102112, , BEST, 0, 135N, 802W, 25, 1008, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 40, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, AL, 18, 2011102118, , BEST, 0, 130N, 805W, 25, 1008, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 40, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, AL, 18, 2011102200, , BEST, 0, 127N, 807W, 25, 1007, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 175, 60, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, AL, 18, 2011102206, , BEST, 0, 127N, 812W, 25, 1007, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, AL, 18, 2011102212, , BEST, 0, 129N, 814W, 25, 1007, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 175, 60, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, AL, 18, 2011102218, , BEST, 0, 132N, 814W, 25, 1006, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 225, 60, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, AL, 18, 2011102300, , BEST, 0, 136N, 814W, 25, 1005, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 225, 50, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, AL, 18, 2011102306, , BEST, 0, 142N, 814W, 25, 1006, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 225, 50, 0, 0, AL, 18, 2011102312, , BEST, 0, 148N, 815W, 25, 1006, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 225, 50, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, AL, 18, 2011102318, , BEST, 0, 155N, 817W, 30, 1005, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 225, 50, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, EIGHTEEN, M, AL, 18, 2011102400, , BEST, 0, 161N, 820W, 35, 1004, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 60, 60, 1010, 225, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, EIGHTEEN, M,
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Zachary Lassiter

Zachary Lassiter

Posted
Posted

BEGIN NHC_ATCF invest_al182011.invest FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201110240031 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END EIGHTEEN, AL, L, , , , , 18, 2011, TS, O, 2011102112, 9999999999, , , , , , WARNING, 3, AL182011 AL, 18, 2011102012, , BEST, 0, 150N, 800W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, AL, 18, 2011102018, , BEST, 0, 145N, 800W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, AL, 18, 2011102100, , BEST, 0, 142N, 800W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, AL, 18, 2011102106, , BEST, 0, 140N, 800W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, AL, 18, 2011102112, , BEST, 0, 135N, 802W, 25, 1008, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 40, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, AL, 18, 2011102118, , BEST, 0, 130N, 805W, 25, 1008, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 40, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, AL, 18, 2011102200, , BEST, 0, 127N, 807W, 25, 1007, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 175, 60, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, AL, 18, 2011102206, , BEST, 0, 127N, 812W, 25, 1007, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, AL, 18, 2011102212, , BEST, 0, 129N, 814W, 25, 1007, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 175, 60, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, AL, 18, 2011102218, , BEST, 0, 132N, 814W, 25, 1006, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 225, 60, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, AL, 18, 2011102300, , BEST, 0, 136N, 814W, 25, 1005, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 225, 50, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, AL, 18, 2011102306, , BEST, 0, 142N, 814W, 25, 1006, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 225, 50, 0, 0, AL, 18, 2011102312, , BEST, 0, 148N, 815W, 25, 1006, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 225, 50, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, AL, 18, 2011102318, , BEST, 0, 155N, 817W, 30, 1005, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 225, 50, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, EIGHTEEN, M, AL, 18, 2011102400, , BEST, 0, 161N, 820W, 35, 1004, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 60, 60, 1010, 225, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, EIGHTEEN, M,

What is this jibber jabber... sorry for the newb question

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CUmet

CUmet

Posted
Posted

There's a small burst of convection close to the center (to it's SW). I'm still over vs the official forecast...my WAG is for a 90kts storm at peak

I believe this is the first time we've seen convection on that side of the storm relative to the shear vector. It may be an indication that the shear has decreased, or more likely that the vortex has become resilient to the shear. A lot of modeling studies show somewhat similar behavior, with the vortex taking some time until it becomes resilient to the shear, after which it can resume intensifying.

Although the SHIPS has the shear in the moderate 10-20 kt range over the next few days, I don't think that's enough to prevent significant intensification.

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Amped

Amped

Posted
Posted

I believe this is the first time we've seen convection on that side of the storm relative to the shear vector. It may be an indication that the shear has decreased, or more likely that the vortex has become resilient to the shear. A lot of modeling studies show somewhat similar behavior, with the vortex taking some time until it becomes resilient to the shear, after which it can resume intensifying.

Although the SHIPS has the shear in the moderate 10-20 kt range over the next few days, I don't think that's enough to prevent significant intensification.

Storm uncancel?

Edit: There's also land interaction to consider.

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Eyewall2005

Eyewall2005

Posted
Posted

I believe this is the first time we've seen convection on that side of the storm relative to the shear vector. It may be an indication that the shear has decreased, or more likely that the vortex has become resilient to the shear. A lot of modeling studies show somewhat similar behavior, with the vortex taking some time until it becomes resilient to the shear, after which it can resume intensifying.

Although the SHIPS has the shear in the moderate 10-20 kt range over the next few days, I don't think that's enough to prevent significant intensification.

CUmet do you see any way rina becomes an issue for sfl? I'd think those 40-50kt winds in the gulf would protect us.

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phil882

phil882

Posted
Posted

I believe this is the first time we've seen convection on that side of the storm relative to the shear vector. It may be an indication that the shear has decreased, or more likely that the vortex has become resilient to the shear. A lot of modeling studies show somewhat similar behavior, with the vortex taking some time until it becomes resilient to the shear, after which it can resume intensifying.

Although the SHIPS has the shear in the moderate 10-20 kt range over the next few days, I don't think that's enough to prevent significant intensification.

I'm not sure if I necessarily buy the GFS based SHIPS shear magnitude for the next 72 hours or so. The GFS has had preformed rather abysmally with Rina's circulation for the past 5 or 6 runs ever since it stopped developing the system into a robust tropical cyclone. Since it takes the 850mb vorticity over central america, it likely doesn't have an accurate representation of the deep convection modulating the upper level flow over the current forecast track of Rina. The 12z ECWMF seems much more realistic with regards to the upper level flow and predicts lower shear for the next 72 hours over the circulation (5-10 knots mainly).

If there is going to be a negative factor towards the intensification of Rina in the short term, it will likely come from the very dry air the lurks northward in the Yucatan Channel and Gulf of Mexico.

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CUmet

CUmet

Posted
Posted

CUmet do you see any way rina becomes an issue for sfl? I'd think those 40-50kt winds in the gulf would protect us.

Very unlikely. If it does end up tracking that far north over S FL, it'll be in a much-weakened state.

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