HurricaneJosh Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 I actually like the track that several of the models (including the GFS) are showing-- N past the HN/NI border, then W toward BZ or MX's Yucatan. That could be kind of cool. I ain't givin' up hope! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 It's really flaring up tonight-- and the convection seems to be near the low center. Not bad. Y'all can keep hatin' on it-- but I'm gonna keep an eye peeled: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 23, 2011 Author Share Posted October 23, 2011 It's really flaring up tonight-- and the convection seems to be near the low center. Not bad. Y'all can keep hatin' on it-- but I'm gonna keep an eye peeled: Yep, it looks BZ or MX directed, but it will probably get named. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Yep, it looks BZ or MX directed, but it will probably get named. Maybe it can become somethin' hawt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 This all feels like deja vu from last year with the disturbance that eventually became Paula. If the storm is able to develop rather quickly, perhaps in the next 24 hours or so, it should be able to push into the northwest caribbean where conditions will be favorable enough for development. If the storm doesn't get going by then, it will be shunted westward into Central America as the low/mid level ridge intensifies as the trough over Florida lifts out beyond 36 hours. A good reason for why the models have backed off on the intensity of 96L might have to do with the unexpected persistence of northerly shear over the system. This has prevented convection from building over the center, and thus the llc has only slowly become better defined. The shear is forecasted to relax over the next 24 hours, and that might already be occurring based on the newest burst of convection over the center. If the storm can spin up quickly like Paula did last year along the Honduras/Nicaragua coastline it still can escape northward and experience moderate development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Paula was a nice little cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 This thing never looked that good. The models got excited for a little while, but they probably miscalculated how much land was really affecting this. I think the launch window for this has closed, it doesn't have enough time to get out of the Caribbean before the next front hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 This thing never looked that good. The models got excited for a little while, but they probably miscalculated how much land was really affecting this. I think the launch window for this has closed, it doesn't have enough time to get out of the Caribbean before the next front hits. What next front? It looks like we are still a good 5 days away from the next major baroclinic zone pushing far enough south to perturb the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 What next front? It looks like we are still a good 5 days away from the next major baroclinic zone pushing far enough south to perturb the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean. The GFS projects a baroclinic zone and the associated jet stream to stall out in the northern Caribbean at about 30 hours. 40-60 kt winds aloft, this storm aint getting through that. http://tempest.aos.wisc.edu/wxp_images/gfs104_00UTC/gblav104_c300_flash.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 The GFS projects a baroclinic zone and the associated jet stream to stall out in the northern Caribbean at about 30 hours. 40-60 kt winds aloft, this storm aint getting through that. http://tempest.aos.w...c300_flash.html If by Northern Caribbean you mean Southern Gulf of Mexico, then you are correct. My argument was that it could be a halfway decent cyclone in the northwestern Caribbean if it can get its act together in the next 24 hours. I don't have high hopes beyond that, and if it does escape far enough north into the Yucatan Channel, it will likely get ripped to shreds due to the aformentioned upper level jet. This again is all very similar to the evolution of Paula last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 If by Northern Caribbean you mean Southern Gulf of Mexico, then you are correct. My argument was that it could be a halfway decent cyclone in the northwestern Caribbean if it can get its act together in the next 24 hours. I don't have high hopes beyond that, and if it does escape far enough north into the mona passage, it will likely get ripped to shreds due to the aformentioned upper level jet. This again is all very similar to the evolution of Paula last year. The most I see is a weak tropical storm that gets quickly whisked away, that jet is gonna be too close once this finally gets away from land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 The GFS projects a baroclinic zone and the associated jet stream to stall out in the northern Caribbean at about 30 hours. 40-60 kt winds aloft, this storm aint getting through that. http://tempest.aos.w...c300_flash.html What storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 The most I see is a weak tropical storm that gets quickly whisked away, that jet is gonna be too close once this finally gets away from land. We shall see. The one thing that the GFS animation can't account for is the added latent heat release that will modify the upper level wind flow if this system goes on to become a convecting tropical cyclone. When a model under forecasts development, it will also in turn under forecast the strength of the upper level anticyclone that develops over the system. This could potentially displace the upper level westerly flow further north than the model is showing currently. P.S. the NHC has taken 96L back up to 70% this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Cool. I thought they'd re-promote it to ch-ch-ch-cherry tonight. Just had that hunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 The GFS accounts for latent heat release... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 The GFS accounts for latent heat release... Of course... but then again it doesn't have a representation of a tropical cyclone... thus there is no strong convective signature in the northwest caribbean that would lead to enough latent heat release to have a substantial impact on the westerly jet. The 00z runs were initialized before the latest burst of deep convection occured over 96L that has resulted in increased organization, so perhaps we will see some significant changes occur with the next model run suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 The 00Z Euro shows a small, weak cyclone skirting Cabo Gracias a Dios as it moves NW, then kind of disintegrating in the Gulf of Honduras (E of the Yucatan) by around Day 4. But, like Phil said, the 00Z models might not be reflecting tonight's flareup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 23, 2011 Author Share Posted October 23, 2011 It has gained a good bit of latitude as of late, and it's already around or just above 14.5N. It should still gain some latitude today, before turning NW to W tomorrow, coming very close to Cape Gracias a Dios, but I think the disturbance will miss it for the most part. Northerly shear has changed to E to SE shear, hence most of the convection is to the NW of the ill defined LLC. This should diminish some gradually, but it's not certain how much, with the globals keeping the axis of the upper level anticyclone further east, and with less favorable conditions over the invest, and the hurricane models developing some anticyclonic flow over the storm, thus intensifying it to a hurricane in that same area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 The invest is sure looking good right now (11am east time) seems to be developing farily rapidly and looks to be moving NW to me. I would not be surprised if we have a closed circulation. Looks to miss that part of Honduras that sticks out to the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 23, 2011 Author Share Posted October 23, 2011 Pretty healthy curved bands now developing in the NW half, the SE half is still mostly naked. This is gonna be Rina, I'm pretty confident, though I'm not sure if she's gonna be worthy or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 The Euro still ain't too excited about it-- shows a very weak low that kind of disintegrates as it approaches the Yucatan. Blah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 The 12z ECWMF does take the system up to minimal tropical storm intensity. However, it does seem that most of the convection stays on the western flank of the system, implying a non-symmetrical system. I'm not exactly sure why the system is not developing, as the ECWMF shows shear is not an issue at both the 200mb and 300mb levels. Perhaps very dry air from the Gulf of Mexico could get ingested into the system, limiting development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 The 12z ECWMF does take the system up to minimal tropical storm intensity. However, it does seem that most of the convection stays on the western flank of the system, implying a non-symmetrical system. I'm not exactly sure why the system is not developing, as the ECWMF shows shear is not an issue at both the 200mb and 300mb levels. Perhaps very dry air from the Gulf of Mexico could get ingested into the system, limiting development. Instability issues just about basin wide has plagued most systems this season. More study has to go into this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Yeah, I have to say, this year's systems have really failed. Even the majors-- were there two? I can't even remember-- just never really got going. A real surprise of a season. I'm not saying 96L isn't going to develop-- but it just seems like it's been such a struggle for NATL systems this year, whereas in the EPAC, they've popped up fast and effortlessly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Hopefully 2012 has more to offer then recurve city and 2 dozen naked swirls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 BEGIN NHC_ATCF invest_RENUMBER_al962011_al182011.ren FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201110231955 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Oh, cool. Will be good to see an official forecast for this. The models have been all over the place with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Oh, cool. Will be good to see an official forecast for this. The models have been all over the place with it. Isn't that the truth... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.